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snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

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  • 29-12-2005 7:23pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 4,506 ✭✭✭


    After coming down off a high after that whole snow situation and seeing it crash to the ground in the form of rain :( , I want something else to look forward to, so, as the title line says 'What's next'?? Anything in line for the coming weeks as regards cold snaps or interesting observations that may affect us?

    Cheers,

    CroppyBoy1798


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,911 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    well I just checked metcheck and their 2 week forcast and theres nothing on the horizon at all if there site is anything to go by, temperatures of 7-12C from now till January 12th. I hope to god something changes soon, altho we've had more colder days so far this winter we've had even less snow than this time last year and that wasnt up to much.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I'm going to make this the new model thread and sticky it and close the other one but I'll leave it open just for tonight if anyone wants to make some closing comments in it

    I'll change the title of this one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Bah, another typical "modern" cold spell, the ostrages in the uk that were not borderline will say ..horray global warming isn't happening..in Ireland where we are borderline and there isn't any snow bar the barely unborderline (Knock airport) ..its yet another let down.

    Bah!! is all i can say, everywhere where snow is borderline its either bounty year or no year...soon its going to be no year for most.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    This chart looks very very familiar:rolleyes: :http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rngp1441.gif

    Last thing we would want is some sort of repeat of what we just had;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    I'd take that , cloudy and hopefully mild, yep nice, no slippery roads and no windscreen scraping!!

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    huh?!? That chart is a precursor to an Easterly, allbeit probrably not a harsh one and its NOGAPS so it wont happen;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    darkman2 wrote:
    huh?!? That chart is a precursor to an Easterly, allbeit probrably not a harsh one and its NOGAPS so it wont happen;)

    And how does this differ from my prognosis ?(apart from the fact that it might be the precurser to another mild easterly? )

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    In fairness Longfield what was wrong with this Easterly was it lasted only a day in truth.
    The scandi high didnt go far enough north so pressure was too high to encourage shower growth in the Irish sea.
    If pressure was a bit lower and the flow had reached us for more than 2 days you would have been plastered with snow from the Irish sea alone and the breakdown would have been more interesting as you would have had much lower temps.

    I saw NRA temps last night down to -5 and -6c on the N2 and in the Very north midlands and Ulster/Connaught.

    Guess what-they got some snow from the break down.
    A longer easterly from the origin of this one would have delivered the goods big time.
    It's only early it can happen again

    Remember we can rebuild it
    We have the technology :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Earthman wrote:
    In fairness Longfield what was wrong with this Easterly was it lasted only a day in truth.
    The scandi high didnt go far enough north so pressure was too high to encourage shower growth in the Irish sea.
    If pressure was a bit lower and the flow had reached us for more than 2 days you would have been plastered with snow from the Irish sea alone and the breakdown would have been more interesting as you would have had much lower temps.

    I saw NRA temps last night down to -5 and -6c on the N2 and in the Very north midlands and Ulster/Connaught.

    Guess what-they got some snow from the break down.
    A longer easterly from the origin of this one would have delivered the goods big time.
    It's only early it can happen again

    Remember we can rebuild it
    We have the technology :D


    All very true Earthman but as the saying goes ..if "ifs and ands were pots and pans then"...etc..

    Fact is the last time one of these reached us was about 5 years ago, the brits get this every year, its only recently that some of them havent(ie its less widespread), but as warming increases ..they will become marginal like we always have been and maybe then the "don't be daft its all normal variation" brigade will realise its anything but.

    Fact is SE uk is still in a drought, whilst Scotland is in exactly the opposite..what worries me is that we are getting easterlies and yes if the same synoptics happened in the 80's, the same temps would result ..however..in the 80's the same synoptics just wouldn't happen, the azores high would be much further south and we would right now be in a full blown proper easterly imho.

    Bah, just bitterly dissappointed yet again by it all, a scandi high that brings rain in winter..hmmmmmmm

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Just for a bit of a tease, look at the dream easterly at the end of the 6z run, wont happen, but sure looks nice:mad:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Longfield wrote:
    All very true Earthman but as the saying goes ..if "ifs and ands were pots and pans then"...etc..

    Fact is the last time one of these reached us was about 5 years ago, the brits get this every year, its only recently that some of them havent(ie its less widespread), but as warming increases ..they will become marginal like we always have been and maybe then the "don't be daft its all normal variation" brigade will realise its anything but.

    Fact is SE uk is still in a drought, whilst Scotland is in exactly the opposite..what worries me is that we are getting easterlies and yes if the same synoptics happened in the 80's, the same temps would result ..however..in the 80's the same synoptics just wouldn't happen, the azores high would be much further south and we would right now be in a full blown proper easterly imho.

    Bah, just bitterly dissappointed yet again by it all, a scandi high that brings rain in winter..hmmmmmmm

    Emm the easterly hardly reached our shores and lasted for like a day. It wasnt an easterly really and the rain that we had yesterday came from a atlantic front that met a not very cold atmosphere over Ireland:)


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Be interesting to see if an Easterly appears on the 12z as the Siberian/Scandi high may link up with an Artic high. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    1 month to go its over, let it go the sun will be getting higher in the sky from now on and besides if this big freeze bull**** we have been fed by the media happens chances are it will only last about 2 days and mainly in dublin. The NAD rules these here parts. Unless you want to nuke either the arctic or the gulf of mexico we aren't going to see much snow especially in Galway. Remebering that the NAD provides a million Billion watts of energy for the love of god let it go or just move to Austria.

    Although would be nice to have a snow season don't get me wrong I'd love it as much as the next guy.

    Rant over thank you.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,506 ✭✭✭SpitfireIV


    1 month to go its over, let it go the sun will be getting higher in the sky from now on.

    CerebralCortex,

    From my understanding, and I am by no means a weather man, but isnt January and February the time that we usually get snow? The only time I ever seen snow in December was Christmas day of 2004.

    I'm still remaining optomistic :D

    CroppyBoy1798


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    Usually!! What is this usually you speak of?:D I am not from a weather background either but I do live in this country and without much difficulty pay close attention to the weather day to day, the dominant weather system is from North Atlantic. It doesn't matter what time of the year it is the majority of the time unfortunately a south west wind that blows meaning no snow possibilties or warm clear weather in the summer when the sun is highest in the Irish skies.

    No we get rain stinking rain and most noticeably around all of the year.

    I love snow more than the next man but we have to be realistic.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    What we need is the NW flow to re-assert herself.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    NW/NE airflow would be nice but one can only dream.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Usually!! What is this usually you speak of?:D I am not from a weather background either but I do live in this country and without much difficulty pay close attention to the weather day to day, the dominant weather system is from North Atlantic. It doesn't matter what time of the year it is the majority of the time unfortunately a south west wind that blows meaning no snow possibilties or warm clear weather in the summer when the sun is highest in the Irish skies.

    No we get rain stinking rain and most noticeably around all of the year.

    I love snow more than the next man but we have to be realistic.
    Actually the UKMO severe winter warning applied to the last 2 weeks of january and february...
    They were expecting average winter weather up to that time.

    As regards Fantasy island, theres nothing outstanding that I can see out to jan6th but that High is on its way back west slightly which is a good thing.
    It needs to anchor over northern Scandi and stay there for a week and then we will shiver.

    WC is right it didnt do that so all we got was the draft down the hall before the draft excluder[Atlantic weather front] was installed whereas Britain was actually outside the door exposed fully to the full cold of the wind.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,911 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    have to say ive lost faith in the winter too I cant see it being much different than any other over the last 10 years, we'll more than likely just have week after week of mild wet muck and maybe a northerly plunge for a day or so with some sleety/snow showers. I really hope im wrong tho but this being the Atlantic influenced Ireland I just dont see much else happening but the usuall boring Irish Winter crap.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Never fear, a true Easterly is certainly on the cards soon with the Siberian high remaining strong and an Artic high developing. Mid January will be interesting. Oh and did I mention a good Easterly is possible from next Friday, nudge nudge;)


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    LoL

    For the first time ever I saw a weather forecast on RTÉ tonight at 620 or so to give the weather for the whole of next week all the way up to friday

    Eveyln Cusack
    Theres confidence for ya
    she said it would be mild all week which it probably will.

    Yeah what people dont realise is we havent had an easterly yet
    They are obviously as rare as properly placed january scandi highs
    I hope theres no snow the week after next though as I'm heading to Boston and I dont want to have flights delayed.

    I'm fully expecting to see snow and feet of it in Boston if I'm lucky


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Incidently and this is good news
    Since the last week, the sea temp in much of the Irish sea has dropped by 2 degree's.
    It's now more or less similar to the north sea temp
    That should help if we have a proper Easterly in a couple of weeks.In fact it could make all the difference in the slight tempering of the air that does happen near the East coast in a cold snap.
    Very interesting

    brack5.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,809 ✭✭✭CerebralCortex


    HMMM(a very big hmmm)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    Earthman wrote:
    Incidently and this is good news
    Since the last week, the sea temp in much of the Irish sea has dropped by 2 degree's.
    It's now more or less similar to the north sea temp

    Clutching at straws are we ;)

    Last week the sea temp at M2 bouy was a little over 11C, now it's 10.7C, so a drop of about 0.5C. North Sea is 7-9C, this I would call a big difference, and I would have thought the gap would have widened during the past week.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Mothman wrote:
    Clutching at straws are we ;)

    Last week the sea temp at M2 bouy was a little over 11C, now it's 10.7C, so a drop of about 0.5C. North Sea is 7-9C, this I would call a big difference, and I would have thought the gap would have widened during the past week.
    Damn Mothman don't you be Raining on this parade.
    You're supposed to be snowing on it


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    1 month to go its over, let it go the sun will be getting higher in the sky from now on and besides if this big freeze bull**** we have been fed by the media happens chances are it will only last about 2 days and mainly in dublin. The NAD rules these here parts. Unless you want to nuke either the arctic or the gulf of mexico we aren't going to see much snow especially in Galway. Remebering that the NAD provides a million Billion watts of energy for the love of god let it go or just move to Austria.

    We've always had the NAD, (well for the purposes of this discussion), we've had snows, cold/freezing weather in the past, inc the very recent past, and I believe that global warming is not enough to prevent us having them in the future.

    Fact is, that sea temps continue to fall, through Jan, through Feb, and normally reach the lowest levels in early March!! The higher sun doesn't really make much difference until into March.
    The coldest month of year is Jan, with Feb about the same. Early Mar is usually colder than early Dec, so I think it is wrong to write the winter off. I'm not saying it will be cold and there will cold/snow etc, just saying there is plenty of time.

    The media jumped on the UKMO forecast, so I don't think they should cop all the blame (just 95% :) )
    Gonzo wrote:
    have to say ive lost faith in the winter too I cant see it being much different than any other over the last 10 years,

    If this is the case, you've set yourself too high standards. A few words about the Winter of 00-01. Sure the final temp stats will say it was about average, if you take the first week of Dec out and put in first week of March, well it would have been well below average.

    Dec 00 "A spell of exceptionally cold weather during the final week brought freezing temps and heavy snow in places."

    Jan 01 "Coldest Jan since Mid-1980s

    Feb 01 "Very cold northerly winds over the country during the final week brought heavy snowfall in places, leading to disruption of both power supplies and transport.

    Mar 01 "Very cold weather at the beginning and again around mid-month...many stations recorded their lowest grass min temps on record for March


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,498 ✭✭✭Mothman


    Earthman wrote:
    Damn Mothman don't you be Raining on this parade.
    You're supposed to be snowing on it

    Hopefully my last post has helped, and perhaps it's now at least sleet on this parade :p;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1682.png
    This is a very interesting chart as the breakdown is quite weak and the northeast of Ireland could do quite well if that chart proves true.:)

    Precipitation would be less than this week's breakdown but it is more likely to bring snow. Unfortunately that ensemble paints the coldest picture out of the 11 ensembles in the model run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    No the outlook at the moment is not very good but im pretty sure by mid January we will see some cold weather but im not optimistic about the first 15 days:)


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Hi all, be interesting to see what sort of an Easterly we get from Thursday. Alreeady looking fairly cold, max next Friday of 2C. Certainly some potential here but we need alot more runs:D


This discussion has been closed.
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