snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote:

No the outlook at the moment is not very good but im pretty sure by mid January we will see some cold weather but im not optimistic about the first 15 days

That's very pessimistic of you WC, as you say yourself. We are less than a week away from a cool snap that might be interesting in terms of snowfall (for where I live anyway). This looks more promising for me tan last week's non-event. Of course, it's early days but I'm hopeful:)

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1682.png
This is a very interesting chart as the breakdown is quite weak and the northeast of Ireland could do quite well if that chart proves true.:)

Precipitation would be less than this week's breakdown but it is more likely to bring snow.

Doubt it.
Thats -5 850 air as opposed to the -5 to -7 that we had in the East on Thursday morning and you know what happened then.
You need to be looking at -10 on those for certainty.
Besides a week is too far out to guess properly

CerebralCortex

Mothman wrote:

We've always had the NAD, (well for the purposes of this discussion), we've had snows, cold/freezing weather in the past, inc the very recent past, and I believe that global warming is not enough to prevent us having them in the future.........

The fact that we have the NAD is the core of my opinion we simply do not get cold weather by cold standards anyway. This is not a cold country it is an extremely mild one (imo). The global warming issue one would hope it might stiffle the NAD so I am kinda for global warming. My final word on the matter is that you live in Wicklow I think and I live in Galway city so if we get this supposed "cold weather" you will see and feel a lot more of it than I would.
Thanx for your time.

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

Doubt it.
Thats -5 850 air as opposed to the -5 to -7 that we had in the East on Thursday morning and you know what happened then.
You need to be looking at -10 on those for certainty.
Besides a week is too far out to guess properly

I disagree there. The charts had the -5 line over the north-east of Ireland at quite a late stage, with the LP about to cross Ireland and the -5 line stayed over northeast Ireland pretty stubbornly. I notice though that the original chart has completely changed now, with -5 850 hPa air over the western half of the country.:rolleyes: That shows the reliability of looking at charts for a week away.

Supercell

Lets see what the winter brings..its only the real beginning of winter proper.

If we get another year of mild muck (five years and counting so far..) than I'm just gonna consign proper cold spells to the historical record like the Frost Fairs on the Thames in London..something that could happen in the "Little Ice Age" (and before the barriers) but not something that's likely to happen now.

Long range cycle charts like the NOAA forceast for an especially active hurricane season this year which of course was very true, would indicate that next winter is going to be the BIG ONE (allegedly..I do believe it's our last best hope personally before warming cancels out even the 63 or 47 type scenario ..)

That said this one should be pretty reasonable also, and the synoptic charts are indeed diffferent to the zonal stuff we have had recently...(has it delivered to you yet??..it did to the brits..barely...)

But ..I don't see an 80's style cold snap happening here ...People say ..if the same chart happened in year blah the result would be the same..well of course it would!!..thats like saying if there's a low pressure over us than it's more likely to rain than in high pressure!!

Fact is certain weather patterns are becoming the norm..and the new extremes are the previous slight deviations,

Sure we could have a really cold winter..but instead of being a maybe 10% chance like in the 80's a '82 or '87 might have been historically..i'd put an '82 or '87 in the hundred year timeframe and a '47 or '63 in a 500 year frame.

So yes in summary, if this and that happened we would get a proper cold snap..but if comparitively this and that happened we would would have month after month of above average temps too....

I know which version makes more sense to me.

Lads I'd really like another decent cold spell with proper snow before I die on a vineyard in Monahan, hope its not to much to ask!!

lucernarian

I don't see why there's so much fuss over global warming or whatever affecting our chances of snow. I can imagine that there have been periods in the past when there were several winters in a row without serious snowfall or cold. I don't believe that GW can be responsible for dreary, damp winters and I think that the phases of the atlantic/NAD have a much bigger influence. It's only a matter of time before zonality gives in to a bitterly cold spell of weather. The million dollar question is of course when this will happen? I fully expect to see a return of more frequent severe winters once the right conditions are back in place again, probably early in the next decade if not at the end of this one or even sooner:)

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I disagree there. The charts had the -5 line over the north-east of Ireland at quite a late stage, with the LP about to cross Ireland and the -5 line stayed over northeast Ireland pretty stubbornly. I notice though that the original chart has completely changed now, with -5 850 hPa air over the western half of the country.:rolleyes: That shows the reliability of looking at charts for a week away.

-5 850 air is not enough for snow

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Never fear, a true Easterly is certainly on the cards soon with the Siberian high remaining strong and an Artic high developing. Mid January will be interesting. Oh and did I mention a good Easterly is possible from next Friday, nudge nudge;)

Ok I know its FI territory.

But only just...

Clutches more straws...

That Scandi high that was over the urals...
Welll GFS is trying to move it westward.
If it maintains that course and position , the feed of Blue to the north East of it would be coming at you
GFS wants to move this high west but much further north than the last time which would open the flood gates.
A week is needed though.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.html

CerebralCortex

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I don't see why there's so much fuss over global warming or whatever affecting our chances of snow. I can imagine that there have been periods in the past when there were several winters in a row without serious snowfall or cold. I don't believe that GW can be responsible for dreary, damp winters and I think that the phases of the atlantic/NAD have a much bigger influence. It's only a matter of time before zonality gives in to a bitterly cold spell of weather. The million dollar question is of course when this will happen? I fully expect to see a return of more frequent severe winters once the right conditions are back in place again, probably early in the next decade if not at the end of this one or even sooner:)

The raising of temps in the Atlantic means more wet weather systems up north

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

-5 850 air is not enough for snow

On its own it's not but it's a good rule of thumb. And I thought that the <-5 850 hPa air was pushed away before the bulk of the precipitation arrived in the non-event this week.

CerebralCortex wrote:

The raising of temps in the Atlantic means more wet weather systems up north

Naturally this is true but the issue here is if they will continue rising for the forseeable future. I don't think that the Atlantic will continue warming endlessly and I think that we can have cold weather even though Atlantic SSTs are warmer (by how much?) than they were in the '80s and before.

It just means that it is more difficult for the right synoptics to occur. It also means that the synoptics which do occur have to be that bit more potent at the source to deliver snow than they did in times past.

CerebralCortex

What is behind my argument is that I think this thread is a tad fanboyish in its hopes for snow when we are cleary not a cold country. For example it is colder inside than it is outside currently. We are a mild country snow is not for us neither are hats and scarfs. Ppl in this country are just ligthweight.

lucernarian

CerebralCortex wrote:

Ppl in this country are just ligthweight.

Lol, I don't really know where you got that from.

[sarcasm]Clearly we are not a cold country. I mean, look at all those people who booked holidays in Spain and the Med this winter. They must have been looking for snow[/sarcasm]
Really though, do you think that Ireland cannot experience snow? My parents talk of the winter of 78/79 where they were able to walk from field to field without noticing the fence or hedge. It happened before, so we can't rule it out again. I'm merely saying that I expect the Atlantic to cool down again.

This thread is the "snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread". I do hope for snow but I won't kill myself by locking myself in a butcher's freezer if there's none:)

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I'm merely saying that I expect the Atlantic to cool down again.

Good luck with that, and may you live to be 2002

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

On its own it's not but it's a good rule of thumb. And I thought that the <-5 850 hPa air was pushed away before the bulk of the precipitation arrived in the non-event this week.

No it was still in the East.
It was also over the whole country when we had rain showers at the begining of the spell.
Tip: look for 516 dam air too but certainly less than 528.
Reading TWO probably has you confused with whats needed for Snow in England particularally Eastern England which is closer to the continent or Scotland which is first in the line of fire for an artic northerly.

You probably missed this thread though while you were over there written by a meterologist I understand.
It's an excelent summary of whats needed except drop the temp a few degree's and lower the dam a bit for over here

Equally well there was a post on usw a few years back mentioning rain falling in Northern Ireland with thicknesses around 510dam - purely due to the warming effect on the lower layers of air travelling over relatively mild seas.

Thats a pertinent point from the thread too.
It's not only Ireland that can happen in too though and it certainly happened I think last thursday when the strong southerly wind that was with the weather front brought with it mild atlantic air rising surface temps in the East or near the coast right from the start to +4c
I know that didnt happen in west wicklow initially who for whatever topographical reason were initially shielded from that heating effect.

Supercell

OMG !!, did anyone watch Steve Murrs new year model tracker video..one word sums it up ..RAMP!!!!, ohh dear I'm getting excited again!!.

heh
The only thing
(raining on parade again)

ECM is showing a one day easterly followed by a southerly...

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

No it was still in the East.
It was also over the whole country when we had rain showers at the begining of the spell.
Tip: look for 516 dam air too but certainly less than 528.
Reading TWO probably has you confused with whats needed for Snow in England particularally Eastern England which is closer to the continent or Scotland which is first in the line of fire for an artic northerly.

You probably missed this thread though while you were over there written by a meterologist I understand.
It's an excelent summary of whats needed except drop the temp a few degree's and lower the dam a bit for over here

Yeah, I have picked up bits and pieces over on TWO during the last 2 years. Although I have to say that I usually am not far off the mark when snow is expected. I was excited to see relatively cold air staying with me so late during the crossing of a LP over Ireland, with wind speeds lighter than what happened this week.

I guessed that 528 dam air is a little optimistic for snow but why the large difference? I would've expected <520 dam air to suffice.

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png
Interesting chart there. If the Icelandic LP and especially the cyclone due west of us positioned itself differently then we would have an easterly on the cards. I like the trend of the Scandanavian HP dragging very cold air due westwards from the Urals which has been shown in many of the model runs recently.

P.S. Happy new year to everyone on the forum and thanks for all the informative posts. Kudos, Earthman:p

Villain

Longfield wrote:

OMG !!, did anyone watch Steve Murrs new year model tracker video..one word sums it up ..RAMP!!!!, ohh dear I'm getting excited again!!.

IMO even if we did get what Steve predicts I think we'd have a simalar situation to last weeks, i.e. England get snow and we get rain.

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Yeah, I have picked up bits and pieces over on TWO during the last 2 years. Although I have to say that I usually am not far off the mark when snow is expected. I was excited to see relatively cold air staying with me so late during the crossing of a LP over Ireland, with wind speeds lighter than what happened this week.

I guessed that 528 dam air is a little optimistic for snow but why the large difference? I would've expected <520 dam air to suffice.

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1442.png
Interesting chart there. If the Icelandic LP and especially the cyclone due west of us positioned itself differently then we would have an easterly on the cards. I like the trend of the Scandanavian HP dragging very cold air due westwards from the Urals which has been shown in many of the model runs recently.

P.S. Happy new year to everyone on the forum and thanks for all the informative posts. Kudos, Earthman:p

The problem with us is, we are an island sitting in the warm atlantic.
You need a prolonged surface air feed as well as the upper air feed for to be sure.
By prolonged, in my opinion and based on what I saw in that snowy decade-the 80's at least 4 days starting from when the coldest air arrives and preferably a week.
Other wise you will get a sleety mess or showers delivering a couple of inches maybe with the whole thing in slush.

I have yet to watch steves Vid,I'll have a look now but I suspect its full of Eastern promise which depends on one or two things coming right.
It's not particularally aimed at Ireland (or at least the last few werent) so mightnt take into account the under cutting of the cold air by Mild atlantic surface air that we saw last thursday.


One other thing to note at the risk of repeating myself.
On last wenesday night I posted that temps on the N2 and some of the Ulster and Connaught NRA road weather stations were down to between -4c and -6c
Those guys actually did get a period of snow because the "mild" under cut had more work to do.
Here in the East, the temp barely got to -2c at best and started to rapidly rise when the southerly Atlantic surface air undercut the cold Easterly.

In january 1982 when a low pressure system travelled to the south of Ireland stalling its fronts in the Irish Sea in a true cold easterly it snowed here in the East for 72 hours nonstop 30 ft drifts on the hills 4 miles from me and drifts here 2 miles from the coast(though with a bit of height) went over the ditches and half way up the telephone poles.

I wouldnt mind a bit of that again.
The only thing was the hassle.
The road beside me was blocked for 4 days and another one even nearer to the coast was completely filled in for a week before it could be cleared.
Thats a week after the snow stopped falling.

Whilst I cant pin point the exact dates,I remember several times in that snowy decade when an Easterly lasted and penetrated long enough to give more than 6 inches of snow.
I suppose that spoiled me in that it set the standard and it always amuses me now to see people getting excited over a dusting which is nothing basically.

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1321.png

Thats starting to look interesting...

Pressure is low-below 1010-1015 which should help showers
-30 to -35 at 500
Winds at about 20knts
And just look at the advancing Siberian Temperatue army at noon...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.html

It might amount to nothing closer to the time, but it sure is interesting to watch, given that its only the start of january...

Supercell

The main thing to my mind about this time around, the Scandi/Russian high looks far bigger and less likely to be moved than before.

You are absolutely right Earthman about it needing time to develop before we get its proper effect this far west, which is what scuppered our chances last week.

A 5-7 day freeze on the brit mainland translates to a a solid 2-3 one here (which i'd happily take) and longer than that means longer here.

Last weeks one was really only a two day affair for the brits and thus we never really saw the benifits..and I threw my toys out of my pram as a result (yes..i admit it!).

This one, to my mind (such as what constitutes one at this time of year), looks better (if it comes off..and thats a capital "IF") as the milder air is diverted south of us giving a longer time for the cold to get going.
What we must not forget..we are pretty far north here in Ireland and if the air sits over us for any lenght of time here it will cool, and if its from a cool source than any warming over the sea at lower levals only takes a couple of days to be undone by the huge solar warming deficit at this time of year here.

I'm optimistic at the moment..but sure as heck aint going to eat my hat if it doesn't come off (might chew my nails coming up to it though).

ninebeanrows

Excellant 12z run fantastic, snow potential for the east as early as 108hrs.

Man the outlook looks so much better today. The Scandi High looks like it WILL beat the Atlantic!

Oh how the winter of 2006 could well prove to be 80esk;)

CerebralCortex

I don't know weather terminology what does that mean?

Supercell

00z continues the fantastic theme, starting to look good lads!

Wow

I was listening to BBC 5 live this morning and the forecast from sue perkins.
She said that it was going to get very interesting at the end of the week at first for Eastern Britain with very very cold air ( yes she used two very's) and that this was likely to push westwards and even more telling she said we could be very fed up of this cold weather by the end of january!

Now theres a hint that the UKMO think its going to be a snowy month.
Longfield are you excited yet??

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

Longfield are you excited yet??

Excited would be an understatement Earthman - 80's here we come!!

If/when it happens..prepare for tales of wild adventures (like tobogganing, making of snowmen and other crazy stuff!!) and sleepless nights!!

Villain

06z shows a downgrade, I wouldn't get too excited this could turn out to be a non event.

Supercell

irish1 wrote:

06z shows a downgrade, I wouldn't get too excited this could turn out to be a non event.

Yep, I think the snow shovels don't need to be polished just yet!
Have a feeling this is going to be another rollercoaster of a ride again .

ninebeanrows

What really excites me the fact that just one week ago not one and i mean one GFS ensemble member went for 850hpa temperatures below -5c for this period.

Now out of nowhere IMO we face another cold spell or snap, a spell coming from the east once again.

This winter is looking alot different to recent winters and i think everybody would agree on that point.

Even if things turn milder after this cold spell it wont be traditional mild it will 80's mild with loads of potential.


My advice at the minute is not to look past 144hrs in the model at ALL.

It looks like we could face a 3 day cold spell with some persistant snow showers in the east. Its much much better than i was expecting just a few days ago;)

And i just get that feeling we won't have to wait much longer for that dream easterly