snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1321.png

Thats starting to look interesting...

Pressure is low-below 1010-1015 which should help showers
-30 to -35 at 500
Winds at about 20knts
And just look at the advancing Siberian Temperatue army at noon...
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17417.html

It might amount to nothing closer to the time, but it sure is interesting to watch, given that its only the start of january...

Supercell

The main thing to my mind about this time around, the Scandi/Russian high looks far bigger and less likely to be moved than before.

You are absolutely right Earthman about it needing time to develop before we get its proper effect this far west, which is what scuppered our chances last week.

A 5-7 day freeze on the brit mainland translates to a a solid 2-3 one here (which i'd happily take) and longer than that means longer here.

Last weeks one was really only a two day affair for the brits and thus we never really saw the benifits..and I threw my toys out of my pram as a result (yes..i admit it!).

This one, to my mind (such as what constitutes one at this time of year), looks better (if it comes off..and thats a capital "IF") as the milder air is diverted south of us giving a longer time for the cold to get going.
What we must not forget..we are pretty far north here in Ireland and if the air sits over us for any lenght of time here it will cool, and if its from a cool source than any warming over the sea at lower levals only takes a couple of days to be undone by the huge solar warming deficit at this time of year here.

I'm optimistic at the moment..but sure as heck aint going to eat my hat if it doesn't come off (might chew my nails coming up to it though).

ninebeanrows

Excellant 12z run fantastic, snow potential for the east as early as 108hrs.

Man the outlook looks so much better today. The Scandi High looks like it WILL beat the Atlantic!

Oh how the winter of 2006 could well prove to be 80esk;)

CerebralCortex

I don't know weather terminology what does that mean?

Supercell

00z continues the fantastic theme, starting to look good lads!

Wow

I was listening to BBC 5 live this morning and the forecast from sue perkins.
She said that it was going to get very interesting at the end of the week at first for Eastern Britain with very very cold air ( yes she used two very's) and that this was likely to push westwards and even more telling she said we could be very fed up of this cold weather by the end of january!

Now theres a hint that the UKMO think its going to be a snowy month.
Longfield are you excited yet??

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

Longfield are you excited yet??

Excited would be an understatement Earthman - 80's here we come!!

If/when it happens..prepare for tales of wild adventures (like tobogganing, making of snowmen and other crazy stuff!!) and sleepless nights!!

Villain

06z shows a downgrade, I wouldn't get too excited this could turn out to be a non event.

Supercell

irish1 wrote:

06z shows a downgrade, I wouldn't get too excited this could turn out to be a non event.

Yep, I think the snow shovels don't need to be polished just yet!
Have a feeling this is going to be another rollercoaster of a ride again .

ninebeanrows

What really excites me the fact that just one week ago not one and i mean one GFS ensemble member went for 850hpa temperatures below -5c for this period.

Now out of nowhere IMO we face another cold spell or snap, a spell coming from the east once again.

This winter is looking alot different to recent winters and i think everybody would agree on that point.

Even if things turn milder after this cold spell it wont be traditional mild it will 80's mild with loads of potential.


My advice at the minute is not to look past 144hrs in the model at ALL.

It looks like we could face a 3 day cold spell with some persistant snow showers in the east. Its much much better than i was expecting just a few days ago;)

And i just get that feeling we won't have to wait much longer for that dream easterly

Scubadevils

What makes it better or different to the last easterly that produced feck all snow here?

LookingFor

I'm not here long, but I get the feeling Weathercheck is an evergreen optimist as far as snow potential is concerned

When you guys refer to 06z, 00z, 12z etc. what exactly are you referring to? A very noob question, I know, but all I know is when I check meteireann.ie, there's no mention of impending easterly cold snaps or the like

ninebeanrows

What makes it better is the fact that the pattern of an Easterly wind dominating this winter is continued.

What makes it better than the recent cold SNAP:v: , is that it will stay colder for longer, the Atlantic wont make such an staggering break through, the Siberian Scandi Ridge will remain massive and there is also more precipitation involved.

At this stage we could be looking at snow for Friday and Saturday especially in the east.

the 0z etc refers to the time the forecasting models update, the GFS updates four times a day while all other models update twice, they churn out the predicted weather in the medium term:)

LookingFor

LookingFor wrote:

I'm not here long, but I get the feeling Weathercheck is an evergreen optimist as far as snow potential is concerned

When you guys refer to 06z, 00z, 12z etc. what exactly are you referring to? A very noob question, I know, but all I know is when I check meteireann.ie, there's no mention of impending easterly cold snaps or the like

06z etc are the times the models are run
They are released to the general public on the web about 3-4 hrs later

The last one was a mild outlier which means that in the ensemble or collection of different weather model runs it was going for a warmer outcome.

It's all guess work after about 5 days any prediction beyond that isnt nailed down.

Thats said, there are indications lately of the jet stream taking a more southerly track-meaning we are on the cold side of it and the quieter side.
That together with the scandinavian high pressure area tends to produce Easterly winds.
These in january mean cold , very cold air comes our way.
We are always on the periphary of those though so we can get a battle between mild and cold with either winning at times depending on various factors.

Scubadevils

What I have read elsewhere this morning still talks about colder in the East of the UK with milder air in the west, seems to be very much like last week.

Ebb and Flow Felix

Every model will say something slightly different untill certainty breaks out one way or the other.

I'd imagine the MO just cant be sure whats going to happen, but they KNOW theres potential for something real cold to happen before the end of this month.

Now for something completely different but interesting none the less.

I was checking out the weather in Boston as I'll be there next week.It's as good a location as any in the states to get a fair snow fall.

I thought the NWS forecasters discussion gives an insight into the way they look at models to decide whats going to happen.
They conversely like us use a UKMO model in their determination in the same way as we use US models of what might happen here

I love the phrase used by the forecaster... " and now the fun really begins!!" as he realises that a snow storm is looking likely out of the various runs.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=BOX&StateCode=MA&SafeCityName=Boston

LookingFor

Thanks for the explanations, Weathercheck and Earthman. Where are these models posted on the web, who issues them?

Have a look in the links sticky

Scubadevils

I have got somewhat used to the ups and downs of each run but still get a tad worried when I read the normally positive posts from Steve Murr turning negative. As you said before Earthman, we need an easterly lasting more than a few days to get the cold feed over to us and as it stands it looks again to be short lived affair - before the monster arrives a little later

darkman2

After studying all the models and charts its clear to me now that we are staring down the barrel significant for mid January. Watch this space;)

Oh I dont care as long as it waits till I come back from America

By the way Philip Avery just now on BBC news 24 ramped it up big style with the likelyhood of snow over eastern and central England on friday and temps here of 2-3c ...

He put on a face at the end of the forecast when he said it will be very very cold which looked very funny!

We'd need to see the fax charts for the w/end tbh and the pressure over the Irish seas and wind speeds to see if anything would come of this.

Yes we do need a longer feed but there may well be a taster in terms of wintryness if philip Avery is right.

darkman2

Hi Earthman, enjoy your holiday, hopefully a bit of snow over there for you.

Regarding this proposed Easterly coming up. The first thing to point out is that the 06z is a mild outlier in general.

Temperatures are currently forcast to be 1 or 2 C lower in the Irish sea then the last attempt , 5C or so. PPN is likely to be minimal away from coasts and pressure is again going to be higher then we would like.

a)The point I would really make here is that it will become colder this weekend, the question is, is it long term. The 6z gave an admirable run of one possibility of low pressure to our west and southwest staring up southerlies after a chilly start. It also shows the Siberian/Scandi high sinking south. This is a good airflow initially but degenerates into something a bit too mild for us.

b)There is another outcome, well demonstrated by the 00z and it is that the Siberian high will ridge to our north and greet his friend, the Greenland ridge, whilst in the meantime the Artic high will begin the journey south to shore up a block. The low pressure systems in the Atlantic get forced south and an unstable Easterly airflow becomes established which would last quite a while.

Aside from that sleet or snow showers are certainly possible during Friday night and Saturday in the East, beyond that its a question of one of the above:)

Danno

Sea temps are all still in double figures (above 10.0c) all around Ireland.

This should be good fuel for showers forming over the Irish sea in the next easterly.

LoL
The 12z is gone for a mild easterly even more so than the 06z by placing the high further south
No need for the snow ploughs so.
But not to worry, it will flip flop again as these models struggle to cope with the synoptics they are looking at...

The 06z FI output from the 16th onwards was wintry, very wintry with the High further north so I spose we could hope that comes off lets see if its still that way with the 12z...

Meanwhile I think I'll concentrate on the output for the NE USA as it's probably a lot more promising in the short term

lucernarian

I saw the 12Z charts just there and they're not awe-inspiring to say the least. But not to worry, it'll be allright on the night:). If we saw High pressure forming over Greenland, taking the place of the current LP near Iceland, then as darkman2 rightly said, we are staring down the barrel of something significant for mid January.

This weekend holds more promise than last week's pittance. We could see an inch or two over the two days. Fingers crossed:v:

if if and if....

I've no doubt somethings coming but tbh-it wont be known untill 72 hours ahead of the event.

You'd get a better idea from the news 24 forecasts than those models at the moment

ninebeanrows

Im with Earthman, i really dont know when it will happen but im am pretty sure that sometime withing the next 4 weeks we will face a signifigant Easterly Blast with 80esk results:)

Supercell

If a Greenland high comes this winter..WC's previous ramps will be small fry compaired to mine..believe me..a Greenland high is the Alpha ..the Omega ..the Nexus of all MONSTER snowfalls in Ireland

maquiladora

Longfield wrote:

If a Greenland high comes this winter..WC's previous ramps will be small fry compaired to mine..believe me..a Greenland high is the Alpha ..the Omega ..the Nexus of all MONSTER snowfalls in Ireland

lol, ok fellas, lets try and not get carried away, the likelihood is, we'll get some snow showers before the end of Jan, anything more than that is just a shot in the dark at this stage, lets not raise the expectations to Day After Tomorrow levels just yet, eh?


*stacks up on canned food and batteries...*

Danno

What is going to happen this weekend though?

lucernarian

Earthman is right when it comes to the models, for the moment anyway, as they are changing far too much to be taken seriously beyond 96 hours. Mind you, news 24 is not so useful for those without a freeview box or broadband;). I have little else to see trends with apart from the models and I simply cannot make out when we will have a severe easterly blast. I'm not really thinking about that and instead I'm focusing on our little appetiser at the end of the week

Did anyone see Met Éireann this evening, Jean Byrne didn't even give a forecast for Thursday! It wasn't mentioned once by her. In fairness to them that may have been caused by time restraints but it still begs the question why Evelyn Cusack yesterday talked about the possibilities for Thursday yet nothing is mentioned today. It doesn't give you an idea about what will happen in the medium term, that's for sure.

I'm not sure about realistic possibilities on the starting of a very cold spell within the next four weeks. I'll leave that to you guys. What do we have going for us and what do we have against us?

The Scandanavian HP is something going for us I'd say:D

Edit: As for this weekend, I'd say something similar to last week except with somewhat colder temps... All depends on the positioning of the HP though.

Danno

Yesterday there was much talk of Thursday. They said that they were unsure about what way things were going to develop.

Supercell

If i had to make a public forecast on tv, i'd go no further than Thursday either, shes absolutely right to do so, its very unsure ..however its boards and we can speculate about what Evelyn (the snow ramper ) is thinking !

Danno

Danno wrote:

What is going to happen this weekend though?

I dont know.
I certainly wouldnt like to call it.
Possibly wintry showers on the coast but nothing significant.
That could change, this thing is so volatile at the moment and the models tbh dont know what to make of it as the programme writers probably never had a scenario like what we have now to look at.

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Did anyone see Met Éireann this evening, Jean Byrne didn't even give a forecast for Thursday! It wasn't mentioned once by her. In fairness to them that may have been caused by time restraints but it still begs the question why Evelyn Cusack yesterday talked about the possibilities for Thursday yet nothing is mentioned today. It doesn't give you an idea about what will happen in the medium term, that's for sure.

Thats because they genuinely dont know.
It could go either way.
Latest charts suggest a bit of a col in the Irish sea with the pressure too high to generate too much in the way of showers and certainly not much wind.

I'd only have low to medium confidence in this at this stage in anything too interesting apart from sporadic light wintry showers if any at all.
Certainty will come on wenesday probably for me.


As regards the longer term,I'd definitely have some strongish confidence that theres potential for a stronger Easterly later in january.
Thats just arising out of the weak atlantic,the very cold continent and that meandering high that oh so wants to sit on the top of scandinavia.
It's 1050mbs.
But guys its not untold for them to slip south into Europe and morph into a Bartlett Euro High which encourages Southwesterlies over us.
That would be curtains...

Unlikely I'd say but something to watch for also.


Incidently on the news 24 forecasts-back in the 80's all we had was the 1:27,6:27 and 9:27 forecasts on BBC one and the RTÉ ones and nothing else.
There was no internet.

Maybe that was for the best because we definitely got a lot of snow

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Mind you, news 24 is not so useful for those without a freeview box or broadband;).

I just copped this bit.
"To be confirmed" Do you have sky digital?
Because you can manually tune in BBC news 24 and view it in the "other channels" menu even with an Irish card in the box.
They have been free to air for ages as is UTV now too.

Instructions are here
The first frequency (commonnly know as codes) given is the one that will give you news 24.
As an aside that will show you how to tune in the other BBC regions( BBC one south East for example was handy for seeing their local news which had good coverage of the recent Kent Snow )
All ITV regions including UTv are available now in the clear when tuned in that way so follow the instructions to the letter and bingo!

Gonzo

The BBC are forecasting some sleet and snow showers for eastern UK, with temperatures of 2C to 5C, more than likely another non event for us just like the last one, we would need everyone (rte,bbc itv, sky) to be practicually 100% confident of a one week easterly bringing nationwide subzero temperatures with bands of snow and prolonged snow showers working westwards before we stand any chance of seeing decent snow in this country, anything less is just a waste of time for Irish snow lovers if you want to see a solid dumping of snow and a proper cold snap. the most im expecting this weekend so far is maybe a few wintry showers on the eastern region, maybe some snow on the highest ground.

* look at metchecks 2 week forcast for dublin then look at their 2 week forecast for London... huge difference between the two

Danno

Metcheck forecasts are rather poor for Ireland right up to 24 to 36 hours before an event, you got to remember too that they are computer generated forecasts where the conditions for Ireland are basically UK forecasts with a timeshift depending on wind directions and also, temperatures greatly tempered.

SpitfireIV

I dont think even Metcheck is sure of whats coming over the weekend, I see up to a few minutes ago anyway there '7 day' forecast stops after 5 days, on Saturday. Interesting.....:rolleyes:

CroppyBoy1798

Duiske

Everton Fox's monthly forecast on the BBC has been TOTALLY changed overnight. Has cold arriving on thurs/fri this week, and hanging around at least 3 weeks. BBC Monthly

I dont know when that was written, but I wouldnt put any faith in it.

When I see charts like this
A scandi high slipping south to become a Euro high, then its Irene goodnigh as far as a cold Easterly is concerned.
The East is blocked off.

Hard to say if I'd put faith in that either as its a total change on the other day for that time frame.

I think I'll stick with news 24 for now and hear what the manual forecasters have to say.
I'll keep a keen eye on the fax charts up to 72 hours aswell but unfortunately they are also tending that high south and ridding us of the Easterly whilst letting the Atlantic back in next week.

Fantasy island isnt inspring this morning either.
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3842.png
A mild southerly due to the shape of the high pressure and all that cold air over Russia being sent straight down to Greece.

I never believed FI anyway and tend not to have faith in anything outside 4 or 5 days and today these models are really struggling.
Theres nothing particularally cold in them though apart from maybe wintry showers at the week end and theres no sign of snow into next week and beyond....

still as I say-theres no reliability in those models at the moment-I wouldnt be surprised if they threw up a cyclone form India on them next :rolleyes:

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

I just copped this bit.
"To be confirmed" Do you have sky digital?
Because you can manually tune in BBC news 24 and view it in the "other channels" menu even with an Irish card in the box.
They have been free to air for ages as is UTV now too.

I'm afraid not but thanks for your information anyway. All we have is an anologue aerial pointing at somewhere in the mourne/cooley mts. I expect the broadband situation to change - watch this space.

Thats because they genuinely dont know.
It could go either way.
Latest charts suggest a bit of a col in the Irish sea with the pressure too high to generate too much in the way of showers and certainly not much wind.

They were able to talk about Thursday on Sunday, even though they said weren't sure of what would happen. It seems strange that they lose even more confidence with 72 hours to go. I guess they know what they're doing.

From Met Éireann's website:
Little or no frost Wednesday night, but sharp frost in places Thursday night (mainly over the Eastern half of the country). FRIDAY, SATURDAY : Cold everywhere. Dry in general, with bright clear weather in many areas - but chance of wintry showers in the East and Southeast. Night frosts becoming more widespread, may become severe. Winds tending to ease off.

They issued this at 4.30 this morning and I'd go along with that as the most likely outcome. The second taster of an Easterly in little more than a week. I like the trend:)

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

They were able to talk about Thursday on Sunday, even though they said weren't sure of what would happen. It seems strange that they lose even more confidence with 72 hours to go. I guess they know what they're doing.

It's not strange at all.
Look at the mess the models have gave them-saying one thing one run and another thing on the next.
I'd imagine colder yes, they'd be confident of that now untill monday but heavy snow? No confidence on that as (a) theres no prolonged Easterly for us, just a weak one and (b) its too warm... +4 c does not a big snow event make...

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

It's not strange at all.
Look at the mess the models have gave them-saying one thing one run and another thing on the next.
I'd imagine colder yes, they'd be confident of that now untill monday but heavy snow? No confidence on that as (a) theres no prolonged Easterly for us, just a weak one and (b) its too warm... +4 c does not a big snow event make...

I never mentioned heavy snow. I'm saying that Evelyn Cusack said that they were unsure if there would be cold easterly winds or Atlantic rain IIRC. The day afterwards, there is no mention of either scenario. It seems like they had lost confidence in both scenarios but anyway, they have a forecast for the weekend now.

Edit: You're right, it's not strange that they wouldn't want to call Thursday at that stage but they were able to discuss the possibilities on Sunday but then no mention on Monday?

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Dublin ensemble

Apart from a cold w/end, its mild all the way...
Atlantic 10 Easterly Nil

Probably the most likely outcome to be honest for the next 2 weeks or so if that High pressure does go south.

darkman2

Hi everyone, try not to take GFS FI too seriously as it is complete bs. Thank you:)

lucernarian

darkman2 wrote:

Hi everyone, try not to take GFS FI too seriously as it is complete bs. Thank you

Lol, someone doesn't like what he's seeing on the charts;) Mind you, you're essentially right.

I don't know what to expect after this weekend. Ahh the anticipation and the wait:D I'd say 50/50 for an easterly/your usual Atlantic fare as I don't have a clue which looks more likely.

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Dublin ensemble

Apart from a cold w/end, its mild all the way...
Atlantic 10 Easterly Nil

Probably the most likely outcome to be honest for the next 2 weeks or so if that High pressure does go south.

Earthman one of my pet hates:o

But the Wetterzentrale Ensemlbes are reknowned for their inaccuracies

heres the corrrect one
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

And i really wouldnt even trust the ensembles post 7 days;)

Mothman

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Edit: You're right, it's not strange that they wouldn't want to call Thursday at that stage but they were able to discuss the possibilities on Sunday but then no mention on Monday?

Evelyn went off duty, it was she who mentioned thursday, none of the others would have done, she is the closet ramper amongst them