snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

Scubadevils

What makes it better or different to the last easterly that produced feck all snow here?

LookingFor

I'm not here long, but I get the feeling Weathercheck is an evergreen optimist as far as snow potential is concerned

When you guys refer to 06z, 00z, 12z etc. what exactly are you referring to? A very noob question, I know, but all I know is when I check meteireann.ie, there's no mention of impending easterly cold snaps or the like

ninebeanrows

What makes it better is the fact that the pattern of an Easterly wind dominating this winter is continued.

What makes it better than the recent cold SNAP:v: , is that it will stay colder for longer, the Atlantic wont make such an staggering break through, the Siberian Scandi Ridge will remain massive and there is also more precipitation involved.

At this stage we could be looking at snow for Friday and Saturday especially in the east.

the 0z etc refers to the time the forecasting models update, the GFS updates four times a day while all other models update twice, they churn out the predicted weather in the medium term:)

LookingFor

LookingFor wrote:

I'm not here long, but I get the feeling Weathercheck is an evergreen optimist as far as snow potential is concerned

When you guys refer to 06z, 00z, 12z etc. what exactly are you referring to? A very noob question, I know, but all I know is when I check meteireann.ie, there's no mention of impending easterly cold snaps or the like

06z etc are the times the models are run
They are released to the general public on the web about 3-4 hrs later

The last one was a mild outlier which means that in the ensemble or collection of different weather model runs it was going for a warmer outcome.

It's all guess work after about 5 days any prediction beyond that isnt nailed down.

Thats said, there are indications lately of the jet stream taking a more southerly track-meaning we are on the cold side of it and the quieter side.
That together with the scandinavian high pressure area tends to produce Easterly winds.
These in january mean cold , very cold air comes our way.
We are always on the periphary of those though so we can get a battle between mild and cold with either winning at times depending on various factors.

Scubadevils

What I have read elsewhere this morning still talks about colder in the East of the UK with milder air in the west, seems to be very much like last week.

Ebb and Flow Felix

Every model will say something slightly different untill certainty breaks out one way or the other.

I'd imagine the MO just cant be sure whats going to happen, but they KNOW theres potential for something real cold to happen before the end of this month.

Now for something completely different but interesting none the less.

I was checking out the weather in Boston as I'll be there next week.It's as good a location as any in the states to get a fair snow fall.

I thought the NWS forecasters discussion gives an insight into the way they look at models to decide whats going to happen.
They conversely like us use a UKMO model in their determination in the same way as we use US models of what might happen here

I love the phrase used by the forecaster... " and now the fun really begins!!" as he realises that a snow storm is looking likely out of the various runs.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=BOX&StateCode=MA&SafeCityName=Boston

LookingFor

Thanks for the explanations, Weathercheck and Earthman. Where are these models posted on the web, who issues them?

Have a look in the links sticky

Scubadevils

I have got somewhat used to the ups and downs of each run but still get a tad worried when I read the normally positive posts from Steve Murr turning negative. As you said before Earthman, we need an easterly lasting more than a few days to get the cold feed over to us and as it stands it looks again to be short lived affair - before the monster arrives a little later

darkman2

After studying all the models and charts its clear to me now that we are staring down the barrel significant for mid January. Watch this space;)

Oh I dont care as long as it waits till I come back from America

By the way Philip Avery just now on BBC news 24 ramped it up big style with the likelyhood of snow over eastern and central England on friday and temps here of 2-3c ...

He put on a face at the end of the forecast when he said it will be very very cold which looked very funny!

We'd need to see the fax charts for the w/end tbh and the pressure over the Irish seas and wind speeds to see if anything would come of this.

Yes we do need a longer feed but there may well be a taster in terms of wintryness if philip Avery is right.

darkman2

Hi Earthman, enjoy your holiday, hopefully a bit of snow over there for you.

Regarding this proposed Easterly coming up. The first thing to point out is that the 06z is a mild outlier in general.

Temperatures are currently forcast to be 1 or 2 C lower in the Irish sea then the last attempt , 5C or so. PPN is likely to be minimal away from coasts and pressure is again going to be higher then we would like.

a)The point I would really make here is that it will become colder this weekend, the question is, is it long term. The 6z gave an admirable run of one possibility of low pressure to our west and southwest staring up southerlies after a chilly start. It also shows the Siberian/Scandi high sinking south. This is a good airflow initially but degenerates into something a bit too mild for us.

b)There is another outcome, well demonstrated by the 00z and it is that the Siberian high will ridge to our north and greet his friend, the Greenland ridge, whilst in the meantime the Artic high will begin the journey south to shore up a block. The low pressure systems in the Atlantic get forced south and an unstable Easterly airflow becomes established which would last quite a while.

Aside from that sleet or snow showers are certainly possible during Friday night and Saturday in the East, beyond that its a question of one of the above:)

Danno

Sea temps are all still in double figures (above 10.0c) all around Ireland.

This should be good fuel for showers forming over the Irish sea in the next easterly.

LoL
The 12z is gone for a mild easterly even more so than the 06z by placing the high further south
No need for the snow ploughs so.
But not to worry, it will flip flop again as these models struggle to cope with the synoptics they are looking at...

The 06z FI output from the 16th onwards was wintry, very wintry with the High further north so I spose we could hope that comes off lets see if its still that way with the 12z...

Meanwhile I think I'll concentrate on the output for the NE USA as it's probably a lot more promising in the short term

lucernarian

I saw the 12Z charts just there and they're not awe-inspiring to say the least. But not to worry, it'll be allright on the night:). If we saw High pressure forming over Greenland, taking the place of the current LP near Iceland, then as darkman2 rightly said, we are staring down the barrel of something significant for mid January.

This weekend holds more promise than last week's pittance. We could see an inch or two over the two days. Fingers crossed:v:

if if and if....

I've no doubt somethings coming but tbh-it wont be known untill 72 hours ahead of the event.

You'd get a better idea from the news 24 forecasts than those models at the moment

ninebeanrows

Im with Earthman, i really dont know when it will happen but im am pretty sure that sometime withing the next 4 weeks we will face a signifigant Easterly Blast with 80esk results:)

Supercell

If a Greenland high comes this winter..WC's previous ramps will be small fry compaired to mine..believe me..a Greenland high is the Alpha ..the Omega ..the Nexus of all MONSTER snowfalls in Ireland

maquiladora

Longfield wrote:

If a Greenland high comes this winter..WC's previous ramps will be small fry compaired to mine..believe me..a Greenland high is the Alpha ..the Omega ..the Nexus of all MONSTER snowfalls in Ireland

lol, ok fellas, lets try and not get carried away, the likelihood is, we'll get some snow showers before the end of Jan, anything more than that is just a shot in the dark at this stage, lets not raise the expectations to Day After Tomorrow levels just yet, eh?


*stacks up on canned food and batteries...*

Danno

What is going to happen this weekend though?

lucernarian

Earthman is right when it comes to the models, for the moment anyway, as they are changing far too much to be taken seriously beyond 96 hours. Mind you, news 24 is not so useful for those without a freeview box or broadband;). I have little else to see trends with apart from the models and I simply cannot make out when we will have a severe easterly blast. I'm not really thinking about that and instead I'm focusing on our little appetiser at the end of the week

Did anyone see Met Éireann this evening, Jean Byrne didn't even give a forecast for Thursday! It wasn't mentioned once by her. In fairness to them that may have been caused by time restraints but it still begs the question why Evelyn Cusack yesterday talked about the possibilities for Thursday yet nothing is mentioned today. It doesn't give you an idea about what will happen in the medium term, that's for sure.

I'm not sure about realistic possibilities on the starting of a very cold spell within the next four weeks. I'll leave that to you guys. What do we have going for us and what do we have against us?

The Scandanavian HP is something going for us I'd say:D

Edit: As for this weekend, I'd say something similar to last week except with somewhat colder temps... All depends on the positioning of the HP though.

Danno

Yesterday there was much talk of Thursday. They said that they were unsure about what way things were going to develop.

Supercell

If i had to make a public forecast on tv, i'd go no further than Thursday either, shes absolutely right to do so, its very unsure ..however its boards and we can speculate about what Evelyn (the snow ramper ) is thinking !

Danno

Danno wrote:

What is going to happen this weekend though?

I dont know.
I certainly wouldnt like to call it.
Possibly wintry showers on the coast but nothing significant.
That could change, this thing is so volatile at the moment and the models tbh dont know what to make of it as the programme writers probably never had a scenario like what we have now to look at.

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Did anyone see Met Éireann this evening, Jean Byrne didn't even give a forecast for Thursday! It wasn't mentioned once by her. In fairness to them that may have been caused by time restraints but it still begs the question why Evelyn Cusack yesterday talked about the possibilities for Thursday yet nothing is mentioned today. It doesn't give you an idea about what will happen in the medium term, that's for sure.

Thats because they genuinely dont know.
It could go either way.
Latest charts suggest a bit of a col in the Irish sea with the pressure too high to generate too much in the way of showers and certainly not much wind.

I'd only have low to medium confidence in this at this stage in anything too interesting apart from sporadic light wintry showers if any at all.
Certainty will come on wenesday probably for me.


As regards the longer term,I'd definitely have some strongish confidence that theres potential for a stronger Easterly later in january.
Thats just arising out of the weak atlantic,the very cold continent and that meandering high that oh so wants to sit on the top of scandinavia.
It's 1050mbs.
But guys its not untold for them to slip south into Europe and morph into a Bartlett Euro High which encourages Southwesterlies over us.
That would be curtains...

Unlikely I'd say but something to watch for also.


Incidently on the news 24 forecasts-back in the 80's all we had was the 1:27,6:27 and 9:27 forecasts on BBC one and the RTÉ ones and nothing else.
There was no internet.

Maybe that was for the best because we definitely got a lot of snow

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Mind you, news 24 is not so useful for those without a freeview box or broadband;).

I just copped this bit.
"To be confirmed" Do you have sky digital?
Because you can manually tune in BBC news 24 and view it in the "other channels" menu even with an Irish card in the box.
They have been free to air for ages as is UTV now too.

Instructions are here
The first frequency (commonnly know as codes) given is the one that will give you news 24.
As an aside that will show you how to tune in the other BBC regions( BBC one south East for example was handy for seeing their local news which had good coverage of the recent Kent Snow )
All ITV regions including UTv are available now in the clear when tuned in that way so follow the instructions to the letter and bingo!

Gonzo

The BBC are forecasting some sleet and snow showers for eastern UK, with temperatures of 2C to 5C, more than likely another non event for us just like the last one, we would need everyone (rte,bbc itv, sky) to be practicually 100% confident of a one week easterly bringing nationwide subzero temperatures with bands of snow and prolonged snow showers working westwards before we stand any chance of seeing decent snow in this country, anything less is just a waste of time for Irish snow lovers if you want to see a solid dumping of snow and a proper cold snap. the most im expecting this weekend so far is maybe a few wintry showers on the eastern region, maybe some snow on the highest ground.

* look at metchecks 2 week forcast for dublin then look at their 2 week forecast for London... huge difference between the two

Danno

Metcheck forecasts are rather poor for Ireland right up to 24 to 36 hours before an event, you got to remember too that they are computer generated forecasts where the conditions for Ireland are basically UK forecasts with a timeshift depending on wind directions and also, temperatures greatly tempered.

SpitfireIV

I dont think even Metcheck is sure of whats coming over the weekend, I see up to a few minutes ago anyway there '7 day' forecast stops after 5 days, on Saturday. Interesting.....:rolleyes:

CroppyBoy1798

Duiske

Everton Fox's monthly forecast on the BBC has been TOTALLY changed overnight. Has cold arriving on thurs/fri this week, and hanging around at least 3 weeks. BBC Monthly