snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

I dont know when that was written, but I wouldnt put any faith in it.

When I see charts like this
A scandi high slipping south to become a Euro high, then its Irene goodnigh as far as a cold Easterly is concerned.
The East is blocked off.

Hard to say if I'd put faith in that either as its a total change on the other day for that time frame.

I think I'll stick with news 24 for now and hear what the manual forecasters have to say.
I'll keep a keen eye on the fax charts up to 72 hours aswell but unfortunately they are also tending that high south and ridding us of the Easterly whilst letting the Atlantic back in next week.

Fantasy island isnt inspring this morning either.
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3842.png
A mild southerly due to the shape of the high pressure and all that cold air over Russia being sent straight down to Greece.

I never believed FI anyway and tend not to have faith in anything outside 4 or 5 days and today these models are really struggling.
Theres nothing particularally cold in them though apart from maybe wintry showers at the week end and theres no sign of snow into next week and beyond....

still as I say-theres no reliability in those models at the moment-I wouldnt be surprised if they threw up a cyclone form India on them next :rolleyes:

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

I just copped this bit.
"To be confirmed" Do you have sky digital?
Because you can manually tune in BBC news 24 and view it in the "other channels" menu even with an Irish card in the box.
They have been free to air for ages as is UTV now too.

I'm afraid not but thanks for your information anyway. All we have is an anologue aerial pointing at somewhere in the mourne/cooley mts. I expect the broadband situation to change - watch this space.

Thats because they genuinely dont know.
It could go either way.
Latest charts suggest a bit of a col in the Irish sea with the pressure too high to generate too much in the way of showers and certainly not much wind.

They were able to talk about Thursday on Sunday, even though they said weren't sure of what would happen. It seems strange that they lose even more confidence with 72 hours to go. I guess they know what they're doing.

From Met Éireann's website:
Little or no frost Wednesday night, but sharp frost in places Thursday night (mainly over the Eastern half of the country). FRIDAY, SATURDAY : Cold everywhere. Dry in general, with bright clear weather in many areas - but chance of wintry showers in the East and Southeast. Night frosts becoming more widespread, may become severe. Winds tending to ease off.

They issued this at 4.30 this morning and I'd go along with that as the most likely outcome. The second taster of an Easterly in little more than a week. I like the trend:)

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

They were able to talk about Thursday on Sunday, even though they said weren't sure of what would happen. It seems strange that they lose even more confidence with 72 hours to go. I guess they know what they're doing.

It's not strange at all.
Look at the mess the models have gave them-saying one thing one run and another thing on the next.
I'd imagine colder yes, they'd be confident of that now untill monday but heavy snow? No confidence on that as (a) theres no prolonged Easterly for us, just a weak one and (b) its too warm... +4 c does not a big snow event make...

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

It's not strange at all.
Look at the mess the models have gave them-saying one thing one run and another thing on the next.
I'd imagine colder yes, they'd be confident of that now untill monday but heavy snow? No confidence on that as (a) theres no prolonged Easterly for us, just a weak one and (b) its too warm... +4 c does not a big snow event make...

I never mentioned heavy snow. I'm saying that Evelyn Cusack said that they were unsure if there would be cold easterly winds or Atlantic rain IIRC. The day afterwards, there is no mention of either scenario. It seems like they had lost confidence in both scenarios but anyway, they have a forecast for the weekend now.

Edit: You're right, it's not strange that they wouldn't want to call Thursday at that stage but they were able to discuss the possibilities on Sunday but then no mention on Monday?

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Dublin ensemble

Apart from a cold w/end, its mild all the way...
Atlantic 10 Easterly Nil

Probably the most likely outcome to be honest for the next 2 weeks or so if that High pressure does go south.

darkman2

Hi everyone, try not to take GFS FI too seriously as it is complete bs. Thank you:)

lucernarian

darkman2 wrote:

Hi everyone, try not to take GFS FI too seriously as it is complete bs. Thank you

Lol, someone doesn't like what he's seeing on the charts;) Mind you, you're essentially right.

I don't know what to expect after this weekend. Ahh the anticipation and the wait:D I'd say 50/50 for an easterly/your usual Atlantic fare as I don't have a clue which looks more likely.

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Dublin ensemble

Apart from a cold w/end, its mild all the way...
Atlantic 10 Easterly Nil

Probably the most likely outcome to be honest for the next 2 weeks or so if that High pressure does go south.

Earthman one of my pet hates:o

But the Wetterzentrale Ensemlbes are reknowned for their inaccuracies

heres the corrrect one
http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/ensdia/03969_06.gif?59d244a18a7b5b2e385eec41049ab335

And i really wouldnt even trust the ensembles post 7 days;)

Mothman

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Edit: You're right, it's not strange that they wouldn't want to call Thursday at that stage but they were able to discuss the possibilities on Sunday but then no mention on Monday?

Evelyn went off duty, it was she who mentioned thursday, none of the others would have done, she is the closet ramper amongst them

darkman2

Hi, just in relation to the 12z, keep an eye on the Artic high. If the 06z is to be believed out to 204hrs (which is highly unlikely) it is due to make an appearence. If it does this makes the pattern to our north condusive to an increase in pressure, and all the goodies that brings with it;)

Just a quick comment so far.
This 12z has put the high further north allowing more of an Easterly and a return to the colder source...

Interesting

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1022.html

Thats more like it-follow the air source right the way bac.
Of course at this stage,beyond saturday is unreliable but if this were actually to continue to happen, our question would be answered ie longer Easter=colder Easterly =more impact snow wise here.

Plus I notice pressure is a tad lower on this run so showers become more of a possibility.

Could all change again tonigh, depending on how much brandy the inputters have had and what they decide to change.

Incidently I might add,I'm more interested in the surface temps with this air source than the upper air temps(initially anyway) and the surface air on that wind run is by and large well below zero.

ninebeanrows

It looks like were gonna have a a period with easterly winds with cool air.

Remember even T850hpa temps are the not be all and end all when u look
at air coming off the continent.

Temperatures from Friday will struggle to between 1-5c across the country
and it will stay like that for at least 4-5 days.

Winter is here with hard frosts and an easterly wind.

But the perfect scenario has not been reached..... YET;)

ninebeanrows

just to note how poor the Ensembles from Wetterzentrale are look at this for an example:



Look at the 9th of January

Now look at this for the 9th of January




I advice you never to use Wetterzentrale Ensembles until this problem is fixed:)

Supercell

WC stop looking at the London one..checkout the operational run on the Dublin one..

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Now look at the precip on the 9th ...(ohh gawd..my poor heart!!)
If that comes off, it really is hat eating time!!

ninebeanrows

that just shows how wrong the data point is

maquiladora

News 24 forecast for the weekend : light dusting of snow in eastern uk counties.

lucernarian

Oh my lordy, that's a pretty big discrepancy between the ensemble and the chart. WC is right. I'm going to use the ensembles here. And the 12Z charts are an improvement on earlier, but this simply highlights the uncertainty the models have IMO.

maquiladora

Longfield wrote:

WC stop looking at the London one..checkout the operational run on the Dublin one..

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Now look at the precip on the 9th ...(ohh gawd..my poor heart!!)
If that comes off, it really is hat eating time!!

Hat, scarf, gloves and overcoat eating if that happens.

Gonzo

just seen the bbc forcast, a slight scattered dusting in some south eastern areas of england, dry and sunny elsewhere.. another non-event for us.

Danno

Gerry Flemming is keeping the cards close to his chest anyways. Anyone see the 1857z forecast?

fatherdougalmag

He said a dry easterly.

ninebeanrows

Gonzo wrote:

just seen the bbc forcast, a slight scattered dusting in some south eastern areas of england, dry and sunny elsewhere.. another non-event for us.

Why are u so negative? its very difficult for it to snow in this country, give it time, and easterly wind is alot alot better than gales and mild weather from the southwest:)

Villain

I'm no expert, infact probably the opposite, but I think people are getting ahead of themselves, there is a cold spell coming this weekend but not anything special and certainly not a big snow event unless your going to climb Lugnaquila. Looking beyond this weekend is just guessing. Lets wait and see what the Winter brings before we start eating clothes

Actually based on the 12z and what I've seen of the surface air source of the wind that is now coming, it could well snow in the East on Saturday/sunday or even friday night.
It looks showery and the cold feed does make its way over here.
I'd imagine you wont have to go up to the top of Lug to see it either with temps around 2 c at sea level...

A short lived affair this time though
Gone by Tuesday I'd imagine

ninebeanrows

Yep looks colder again on the 18z with more precip:D

could be at least an interestign 4 days:)

Villain

18z certianly looks to be an upgrade, umm might not have to climb Lug after all, I did say I wasn't an expert

Danno

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn2882.png

I'll have that please... with earthmans hat for starters, tbc's scarve for main, and WC's gloves for dessert!



WHAT THIS CHART MEANS: Low pressure close to the south bringing a nice subtle east breeze with some weather fronts (not troughs) caught up. Air aloft and below guarantees snow even in rosslare and valentia.