snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

Danno

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3362.png

And it gets better... Another 750 to 1000 miles for that cold air and sleet falls in the Azores!

Villain

That would be nice Danno but a lot can happen beween now and then. Reading the net weather forum, god they don't half get excited!!

Wibbler

irish1 wrote:

That would be nice Danno but a lot can happen beween now and then. Reading the net weather forum, god they don't half get excited!!

You gotta love that control run, though. Lovely.

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Danno

Danno wrote:

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3362.png

And it gets better... Another 750 to 1000 miles for that cold air and sleet falls in the Azores!

Actually the FI output tonight is tantalising to say the least.
But that far out is well exactly as it says on the lable-- Fantasy Island.

That said, the building blocks are there, the last 2 weeks in january are going to be very very interesting and its good that this is happening in January / early february and not later.

As regards the w/end I'm not expecting much if anything.
It will be cold enough I think for light sleet and snow showers as the dew points are bound to be sub zero given the origin of the air.
Pressure will be too high for extensive shower activity though I think.

Danno

At least it is good that the models are pumping out these kinda scenarios, there must be something upwind in the lines of cold and snow, even if these charts don't exactly live up.

Danno

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3722.png

*imagine Home Simpson drooling*

Danno

http://www.n-w-cirrus.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20060103/18/360/uksnowrisk.png

Cool! 0m freezing levels and 100% chance of snow fall here

maquiladora

Danno wrote:

http://www.n-w-cirrus.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20060103/18/360/uksnowrisk.png

Cool! 0m freezing levels and 100% chance of snow fall here

:eek: *whistles* that can't be right....

Villain

RTE one Weather this morning said it will turn very cold from Thursday evening with hard frosts over the weekend and a few Wintry showers possible along the East coast but will begin to turn milder Sunday night.

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote:

:eek: *whistles* that can't be right....

It isnt

As its based on fantasy island.

As regards Radio one this morning,It will get milder probably Sunday alright-it might be delayed.
But this is the 2nd Easterly incursion in 2 weeks.
The Cold in the East is getting stronger and is going to continue to get stronger.
Those FI charts are pointing to that.
The stronger the cold out there, the stronger and longer the incursions will get.
The end of this month should be very interesting.

lucernarian

They're some charts allright... Pity we cant exactly trust them at that timescale.

It now looks certain it will be a mediocre easterly but I can't remember when we had 2 easterlies, albeit faint ones, in 10 days. This is an obviously good trend. Now what we could do with is to see the Greenland HP cropping up. That's one element that I haven't seen on any of the charts. I don't know that much of its significance except it's better to have that than LPs approaching Ireland:D

SpitfireIV

BBC weather at 1 said that over Thursday and Friday there would be a few 'flecks' of snow over the UK, but nothing compared to what they got on Boxing day. Does that give us much hope? :rolleyes:

Still though (and to an untrained eye) mid to late next week looks interesting according to the 06Z, right? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

CroppyBoy1798

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Still though (and to an untrained eye) mid to late next week looks interesting according to the 06Z, right? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html

If you like wind and rain-next week should be heaven

Most of what I've seen so far is the exact opposite of what was on those GFS yesterday.

Winters over (for now)

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3481.png

look at that for instance.

Yesterday for that date the snowy appocalapse that Danno was liking was imminent with a real cold pool heading out way.

One flick of a switch and it says the opposite.

Thats Fantasy island for you = kack tbh Those guys dont know jack as regards whats going to happen in 2 weeks and neither do we.

Back to watching news 24 and looking at the fax charts and maybe GFS out to 96 hours as well but nothing else as its only a pile of intelectually interesting rubbish.

BigCon

What about this chart though? Are these guys that inaccurate?

Very

BigCon

Are they really that bad?
The maps, forecasts etc look professional...:rolleyes:

Villain

18z seems to show more mild are coming our way from Sunday.

SpitfireIV

So ehh......if the snow is off for this weekend and the charts and models arent right..........then what weather are we gonna get :rolleyes: , bit confused here, lol.

Metcheck is showing an 80% chance of snow for Carlow tomorrow and a 60% chance on Friday

Villain

Well it will be cold until Sunday with a risk of snow showers on the east coast Friday and Saturday.

The main disappointment at the moment is the 10 days after Sunday seem to be heading for a mild wet spell. So any big Snow event is off the cards for the next 10-12 days at the moment.

I wouldnt be confident of anything beyond a week.It could be mild, it could be anything.
You can read a lot of speculation from various posters on other sites but you would also want to know their bias to put a weighting on what they say.
Some of them arent logical at all-they are ardent rampant cold snow lovers and get depressed at the sign of atlantic weather and scream winters over etc( and this only jan 5th )
In truth a lot of these people arent experts at all and I wouldnt put any faith in their views because they know nothing to be honest.
Then there are a few among them who see weather for what it is and can tell trends, know what to look for and call it the way it is.
I wont name names

Theres a huge contrast across the country at the moment.
I notice down in Cork dewpoints are +6c whereas here with me the DP is -0.5c ie subzero.
Totally different air masses.

CerebralCortex

He means me.:D

Villain

Earthman wrote:

I wouldnt be confident of anything beyond a week.It could be mild, it could be anything.
You can read a lot of speculation from various posters on other sites but you would also want to know their bias to put a weighting on what they say.
Some of them arent logical at all-they are ardent rampant cold snow lovers and get depressed at the sign of atlantic weather and scream winters over etc( and this only jan 5th )
In truth a lot of these people arent experts at all and I wouldnt put any faith in their views because they know nothing to be honest.
Then there are a few among them who see weather for what it is and can tell trends, know what to look for and call it the way it is.
I wont name names

Theres a huge contrast across the country at the moment.
I notice down in Cork dewpoints are +6c whereas here with me the DP is -0.5c ie subzero.
Totally different air masses.

Oh it's very obvious on other sites what posters know little to anything (like myself ). There is some posters though who seem to know what they are talking about, you usually find these guys and gals won't forecast anything past 5 days.

So Earthman woul you agree that tomorrow and Saturday will be cold with a chance of a few wintry showers on your coastline, then it will be mild from Sunday until ???

The mild mightnt come untill monday here.
Dewpoint is hovering at -0.5c still with a temp of 4.9c-that means light rain showers.If the temp was 3c or less with that dp I'd expect snow

The temp and the dp might be lower tomorrow,its a wait and see, but I expect they will be ,as will the air temp so wintry showers(few and far between I'd say) and some flakes possible.

ninebeanrows

We'll probably experience some snow grains before we see any snow.

Im quite confident we'll see some insignificant snow showers in the next few days here in the east:)

ninebeanrows

Drizzly rain here obviously not cold enuff yet.

But the cold air will arrive this avo;)

ninebeanrows

Light rain turning to graupel

Dublin airport 2pm metar reports a light rain shower

EIDW 051400Z 14015KT 9999 -SHRA FEW025 BKN035 BKN045 05/00 Q1017 NOSIG=

Their Taf forecasts staying dry though ...

Where as Belfast is forecasting sleet.

Pressure is falling quickly here perhaps related to the Weather fronts that have gone as far East as Waterford

Anyway my guess ? I would concur with the idea of snow grains later or light mainly isolated sleety showers at best.

I'd also have a peek at the ecm ensemble for I like the way they are thinking late next week

ninebeanrows

Its so dark outside

Really depressing weather anyway!

Gonzo

dunno of its cold enough for snow yet but its certainly feeling very bitter outside, its about 4c or 5c no more. had a few minutes of drizzle earlier but nothing that would wet the ground