snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

ninebeanrows

Yea temperatures dropping across the country:)

4c in Dublin now and 2c in Belfast

Villain

Earthman wrote:

I'd also have a peek at the ecm ensemble for I like the way they are thinking late next week

Got a link? Can't seem to see them in my normal source.

Mothman

Very dark here as well. Staying dry. Temp 5C, Dewpoint generally 0 to -2C.

Irish Sea bouy 5,7C DP +2.0C.
Would like to see that dewpoint lower.

irish1

irish1 wrote:

Got a link? Can't seem to see them in my normal source.

I'd have to kill you first

I have a summary analysis mailed to me, and I cant release it but they do suggest a fall off in temps into next w/end.
By fall off I mean down lower than today from early next weeks highs.

Do I trust them?
Nope but it means some European forecasters dont want to kill off the cold

Villain

TV3 Weather giving widespread frost tonight with temps tomorrow between 1c and 4c. Then gving snow showers sat with rain returning Monday.

Danno

She's gonna be a cold one bhoys and children.

ninebeanrows

The outlook post this cold spell is NOT good..

onward its currently ice pelleting/graupeling

So were experiencing wintry precipitation:v:

Nothing at Dublin airport at 730pm
EIDW 051930Z 13013KT 9999 FEW018 SCT028 BKN035 04/M00 Q1016 NOSIG=

but interestingly at good old knock on top of the hill, the rain is turning to snow from that rain band-theres something not forecast...

METAR EIKN 051930Z 13013KT 3000 -RASN OVC005 01/01 Q1013 TEMPO 1200=

darkman2

Ive been so fixated on post zonality coming up I forgot about this very short cold snap. Rain or possibly sleet, nothing more IMO. Showers will be very light and patchy imediately away from the East coast. Interseting ECM ensembles tonight regarding the long term, however were in for at least a week on zonality:)

Supercell

Tbh, if its not going to be snowing, then feck the frost and slippery roads and scraping my windscreen every morning, zonality will do just fine.

Yes the rattle has been flung from the pram again !!

Scubadevils

I really like the cold, even without snow. I love crisp frosty mornings.

As far as next weeks weather is concerned, the beast is just recharging before he really makes his appearance.

darkman2

Justr had some hail and sleet here. There is sleet now in knock apparently at 1C:)

ninebeanrows

constant light graupal here

and bone chilling cold out there

I've got a headache from the icy wind!

Dublin airport-light rain

EIDW 052230Z 14012KT 9999 -RA FEW017 SCT023 BKN031 04/01 Q1016 NOSIG=

Meanwhile here-cloudy dry and the same temp all day 4.6c
Dew point has rose above freezing , it was below all day.

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote:

constant light graupal here

and bone chilling cold out there

I've got a headache from the icy wind!

Whats graupal?

ninebeanrows

maybe if the observer didnt jus look outside and had a sheet and saw what was falling he wouldnt call it rain!

ninebeanrows

Felixdhc wrote:

Whats graupal?

Its like ice pellets, jus little chunks of ice falling from the sky

The airport thermometer must be wrong too WC because its reading 4c with a dewpoint of plus 1c which doesnt support anything other than rainfall

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote:

Its like ice pellets, jus little chunks of ice falling from the sky

Cheers

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

The airport thermometer must be wrong too WC because its reading 4c with a dewpoint of plus 1c which doesnt support anything other than rainfall

Go all sarcastic on me then Earthman:D

Gonzo

on the bbc website they have issued a bitterly cold last 2 weeks of January for all parts of the uk with alot of sunshine but possibilitys of some snow at times in places.

Yeah as I just posted on two, I think theres a lot of uncertainty out there in the MET especially in London.
Just listen to the language that they are using on the TV forecasts.I've yet to hear absolute certainty from them as regards a complete return to mild.

lucernarian

There was a light shower at around 6 pm in Drogheda but I couldn't tell if it was ice pellets or drizzle:o It felt cold enough to be ice anyway. That's a statement by the BBC, making a forecast like that. They seem to be confident:)

Takeshi_Kovacs

nothing but heavy rain down here in kerry today,
not even sleet

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

There was a light shower at around 6 pm in Drogheda but I couldn't tell if it was ice pellets or drizzle:o It felt cold enough to be ice anyway. That's a statement by the BBC, making a forecast like that. They seem to be confident:)

Thats updated tomorrow though iirc which should be an interesting update.
This one certainly is

Villain

Anyone got a link to the BBC article??

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml
It's actually updated on monday(so its been there since last monday too and doesnt take account of the latest runs...)
They use the ECM as well as their own which might explain things...

darkman2

18Z a major improvement, plenty of possibility mid month, night everyone;)

Danno

Hmmm, These charts are all over the place this week - siberian weather one chart, cool and blustery northwesterlies the next,

if they were switching between NW and NE, I'd be alot less nervous!

There is going to be a major cold event yet this month I feel.

Danno

Currently at 3.7c here down from 3.8c at 6.30pm!

Talk about stable airmass!

Max today was 5.5c

That precip front is holding steady at 15 miles west of here!