snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 5)

fatherdougalmag

Nice salmon pink sky to the east. Always associated that with imminent snow.

It's more to do with the origin of the air mass I think.
Environmentally its too warm for snow
You probably would get snow in a heavy shower as it brought down the cold air-but the pressure is too high for anything other than lightish few and far between showers so with temps above 4c-Rain or sleet is the order of the day with any frozen precip quickly melting in the ambience of the 4c
Pressure is rising.

Also M2 not far off the Dublin coast has a temp of 5.3c with a dp hovering at 0
The chances of that making a snow shower would be next to nil.


Here the suns out now
Lovely clear blue skies which has helped the temp up to 5.3c-I doubt it will go much higher but all in all a beautifull day compared to the last few!

Incidently I'll keep this thread running untill monday and then close it, at which time a new one can open.

ninebeanrows

ye this cool/cold spell of weather likely to cling on even through Monday as yet again the Zonal flow which was predicted to arrive with ferocity struggles to make it.

At this stage the block to the east is set to stay strong and not sink south as
anticipated this means when the feeble attempt of atlantic activity is done with we could be back in action.

At this stage zonality has been pushed past the 96hr timeframe and it would not surprise me if it keeps getting puches further west

I'd agree with that analysis.
However if that hp doesnt move into Norway or Northern Scandinavia...
Then really all you have to look foward to in Ireland is what we have today.

Plenty of time yet.
I like my Easterly to occur anything from the last 2 weeks in January to the first 3 weeks in February.
Anything after that will just struggle like todays unless its a very very prolonged and unstable flow which isnt beyond the bounds of possibility with this years set up.
I've seen complex lows drift out of Russia, across Europe and make it all the way to the East coast here dumping snow-but that was in the 80's.

Back to today

We just had a very light rain shower here which has brought the temp down a degree and left us mainly cloudy in its wake.
The dew point is now just above 0 as is Dublins which means with temps along the East coast of plus 4 or 5 c, any of these light showers today are going to be rain.
That may change tonight and tomorrow.

I have to say the weather is fascinating as theres still no definity as to whats going to happen in the next 4 to 7 days
It's all up in the air - literally

SpitfireIV

Kent -50 °c Thats the temperature Metcheck has for Kent! haha, pretty cold, right, but I assume its a mistake :eek: :eek:

one of their many
It's a default when they forget to input the forecast...

Today and yesterday are classic examples of how the Irish sea is modifying the air travelling over it.
+3c in many parts of the UK becomes +5c over Dublin

The UKMO forthnightly outlook has been updated today

Low pressure over the Atlantic is likely to be the driving force for the UK weather for at least the first 5 days. From around the middle of the month there is a higher probability that colder air from the continent will affect at least England and Wales. This scenario leads to an unsettled start to the period for all areas with periods of rain or showers alternating with drier and brighter or clearer intervals. This would bring near normal temperatures and local night frosts, average or above average rainfall and generally normal amounts of sunshine. Strong winds could affect the west and north at times. From the middle of the period there is an indication for England and Wales to turn colder and cloudier with a threat of wintry showers in the east, while the west turns drier. Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland are more likely to stay milder and unsettled.

I'll decode that for ye...
They reckon the probability of the cold over Europe will fight the Mild atlantic air after next week again
They think its more probable that the cold will win.

Supercell

Feckin - 7/8 850's and we get rain and sludge..
Time to invest in that alpine hut/cabin.

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Feckin - 7/8 850's and we get rain and sludge..
Time to invest in that alpine hut/cabin.

I thought you were thinking of moving to the wicklow mts?
Theres some nice pics in this weeks wicklow people of the snowstorm up there on the thursday before new years-you know when we got the rain instead of the snow.
Good bit of it up there too around wicklow and sally Gap and with the strong south wind it was a blizzard for several hours

As regards winter.
Ten more days of Zonality (mild stormy and wet) to come and maybe something then.

ninebeanrows

Why not portential today i ask??

Temperatures very low precip should arrive on the east coast
around 6pm...

lets see;)

I doubt it very much wc-thats wishfull thinking
Most of that precip is falling as rain on low ground near the coast in the UK and fizzling out as it moves north and west.
It's not heavy enough

4c here and a dewpoint above zero might just about give sleet on high ground

ninebeanrows

To my eye the precip has intensified??

Anyway yep it will fizzle out somewhat but with temperatures of 3-4c
and precip heading our way from the east i certainly wouldnt write off
snow:)

Birmingham is reporting light sleet ie rain and snow from that precipitation band in central England
Unless the Irish sea freezes solid in the meantime,I'd expect if some of it gets here that it will be mostly rain.
It's cloudy temps arent falling and probably wont after dark
Dew points are above zero.

Dont put the family silver on snow.

That said the Taf from Dublin Airport expects light sleet showers in the evening.

It's a bit sad tbh when we get excited over sleet.
EIDW 071200Z 071322 14008KT 9999 SCT020 BKN040 TEMPO 1316 VRB03KT PROB30 TEMPO 1822 4000 -SHRASN SCT012 BKN018=

Supercell

Hmm, dew points are fluctuating a bit, the M2 bouy had a dew point of -2.6 at 14:00.

If that area of precip develops over the sea which I imagine it might well do then its possible that we may initially see rain then sleet then even snow for a while, high areas towards the Wicklow mountains could do well. Wouldnt be suprised if places like Tallaght get snow settling even if only for a short while.

Still a piss poor easterly has to be said.

Supercell

Look at these metars for the last 18 hours..anything to break up the monotony would be nice!!


EIDW 071500Z 00000KT 9999 FEW020 OVC040 03/01 Q1022 NOSIG
EIDW 071430Z 00000KT 9999 FEW020 OVC035 03/01 Q1022 NOSIG
EIDW 071400Z 00000KT 9999 FEW020 OVC035 03/01 Q1022 NOSIG
EIDW 071330Z VRB01KT 9999 FEW020 OVC035 03/01 Q1023 NOSIG
EIDW 071300Z 34003KT 9999 FEW020 OVC035 03/00 Q1023 NOSIG
EIDW 071230Z 35002KT 9999 FEW025 OVC038 03/00 Q1023 NOSIG
EIDW 071200Z 31002KT 9999 FEW025 OVC038 03/00 Q1023 NOSIG
EIDW 071130Z VRB01KT 9999 FEW022 OVC040 03/M00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 071100Z 01004KT 9999 FEW022 OVC040 03/00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 071030Z 30002KT 9999 FEW022 OVC037 03/M00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 071000Z 00000KT 9999 FEW022 OVC037 03/M00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070930Z 36001KT 9999 FEW022 BKN037 03/M00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070900Z 22003KT 9999 FEW022 BKN037 03/M01 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070830Z VRB02KT 9999 FEW022 BKN037 03/M01 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070800Z 26001KT 9999 FEW022 BKN037 03/M00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070730Z 22004KT 9999 FEW022 BKN037 03/M00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070700Z 21003KT 9999 FEW022 BKN037 03/M01 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070630Z 19002KT 9999 FEW028 BKN037 02/M00 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070600Z 00000KT 9999 FEW028 BKN037 03/M01 Q1024 NOSIG
EIDW 070530Z VRB01KT 9999 FEW028 BKN037 03/M00 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070500Z 00000KT 9999 FEW028 BKN037 02/00 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070430Z 25001KT 9999 FEW028 SCT032 BKN037 02/00 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070400Z 00000KT 9999 FEW028 SCT032 BKN037 03/M00 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070330Z 11003KT 9999 FEW028 SCT032 BKN038 04/M02 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070300Z 13002KT 9999 FEW028 SCT032 BKN038 04/M02 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070230Z VRB03KT 9999 FEW028 SCT036 BKN040 03/M01 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070200Z 12005KT 9999 FEW028 SCT036 BKN040 03/M01 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070130Z 10004KT 9999 FEW028 SCT036 BKN045 03/M01 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070100Z 11004KT 9999 FEW028 SCT036 BKN045 03/M01 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070030Z 12004KT 9999 FEW028 SCT036 BKN045 03/M01 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 070000Z 12007KT 9999 FEW028 SCT036 BKN045 03/M01 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 062330Z 11004KT 9999 FEW025 SCT038 BKN045 03/M01 Q1025 NOSIG
EIDW 062300Z 12003KT 9999 FEW025 SCT038 BKN045 03/M01 Q1026 NOSIG
EIDW 062230Z 12003KT 9999 FEW025 BKN045 03/M00 Q1026 NOSIG
EIDW 062200Z 12003KT 9999 FEW025 BKN045 03/M01 Q1026 NOSIG
EIDW 062130Z VRB01KT 9999 FEW025 BKN050 02/M00 Q1025 NOSIG

Dublin airport dewpoint is plus 1 celcius though and with the precip passing over a sea with air temps of 6c-thats a recipe for rain on the coast or maybe sleet if its heavy which I doubt as pressure is a bit high ie no instability there.
Thats what happened last winter anyway in similar temps and dew points.

Theres a significant narrow band of precip over wales now falling almost exclusively as snow.
If it maintains its strength as it passes westwards over the Irish sea,I'd certainly expect snow on high ground.
It will probably have got too much of a modification by the warm sea air to fall as snow on the lower ground, but if its still heavy it might.

It will be a pretty defiant band of snow if it does

Supercell

And now its... EIDW 071600Z VRB02KT 9999 FEW020 OVC040 04/M00 Q1022 NOSIG

I believe this trough will bring its own weather tbh, and still feel that rain followed by sleet or snow in some places is likely, the 15:00 M2 dewpoint is still a healthy -2.4 , all to play for !!

Supercell

Earthman what dew point is your own station recording ?

plus 0.5c
temp +4 c

So rain here basically with sleet maybe at best based on that I think.

Will start the weather programme up now

0.3c dp at the moment
Very borderline if the temp drops.

By the way RAF Valley is reporting +5c so that snow band is going to be turning to rain even before it hits the Irish sea

ninebeanrows

Think we will need some heavy precip and temps hopefully will be 3c by the time some precip arrives.

I dont think I will be lucky but if you live on ground above 200 meters then you could be in for a covering (if you live in the east):)

Supercell

Hmm , looking at the latest radar it seems the Welsh mountains have completely done a number on that precip, bah..hopes of snow plummeting here (again).

ninebeanrows

at the moment there signs of things getting better over the Irish sea as it reaches it:)

Lets see still a good chance of 1-3hrs precip on eastern coastal areas

A few spof rain here - nothing much at all but the temp went up when it started happening-NOT a good sign.
As I said snow very unlikely, though the chances increase as you head inland especially over high ground.

Dewpoint is still above zero too

Dewpoint at m2 is now also only 0

Villain

Cold and cloudy in Tullow doesn't feel cold enough for snow though, be very surprised if I see anything.

ninebeanrows

well the precip had banded and become slightly more intense as it begins its
journey across the irish sea:)

I think areas above 200m will see snow and the Dublin MTN's will be white come
morning:)

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

well the precip had banded and become slightly more intense as it begins its
journey across the irish sea:)

I think areas above 200m will see snow and the Dublin MTN's will be white come
morning:)

Hmm are you looking at the same radar as me ?!!

The M2 bouys dew temp isnt encouraging at all ..bah.,...but at least the mountains will probably see snow, might well go for a drive tomorrow.

Danno

Temp of +0.6c here and RH is approx 80%

Bring it on!

Whats the bets that the trough gets some good fuel crossing the Irish Sea! I like the way some bright echoes are developing ahead of it.

Probably snow here then tonight! Will be online around 1.30am to report it and photos too!

Villain

Reckon I'll see any Danno??