Snow likelyhood and winter weather indications thread (part 6)

Danno

Of course, every Irish winter is going to have spells of wind and rain... It is just part of the course...

look at how little of it we've had this winter so far, like it has only been raining since Monday evening anyways!

Danno

OOOOh - I passed 1,000 posts -

everybody - yeaaaah!

ninebeanrows

Yes January has been a very disappointing month..

My totally personal feeling is the trend will buckle int 10-12 days

Im eyeing Jan 28th a ball point date..

Expect cold to arrive from the east..

I dont have any confidence in it.

It is a totally personal view from viewing the models.

Retrogression of the Artic/Russian/Scandi High will contiue to move westward:)

ninebeanrows

And there is one mega cold pool heading into west Russia this week..

Really intense -35 850hpa at its most intense.

This type of airmass is highly hard to shift

And if our easterly comes to fruition there will be ample cold for our
spell to be the one

ninebeanrows

Latest runs coming around into my way of thinking.

Dates for me are abit skewed though

But still January 23-26th is the crucial period.

The westward evoltion of this really intense cold pool is getting interesting.

We could end up having the holy grail unexpectely due to the constant
slow movement of this block westward by models as we get closer to
the time.

300 miles is the type of distance at the moment:)

ninebeanrows

Most importantly a Block WILL build to the east with a tremendous Cold Pool..

Again my personal view is it will move East and we will have our easterlies
come late jan:)

jd

Weathercheck wrote:

Most importantly a Block WILL build to the east with a tremendous Cold Pool..

Again my personal view is it will move East and we will have our easterlies
come late jan:)

Your web site is outta date

ninebeanrows

jd wrote:

Your web site is outta date

just abit:)

lucernarian

Here's a heart"warming" pic for yas, one which is in a reasonable timeframe:

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Here's a heart"warming" pic for yas, one which is in a reasonable timeframe:

Warming being the operative word!!, but thats mighty cold air relatively close...
It is interesting how we are sandwiched between two extremely cold airmasses.

hello everybody! plenty snow here in the catskills just 30 miles north of new york city-great fun today skidding around in a 4wd

expecting lots more on sunday-though theres none in ny city as its too warm

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

hello everybody! plenty snow here in the catskills just 30 miles north of new york city-great fun today skidding around in a 4wd

expecting lots more on sunday-though theres none in ny city as its too warm

Grrr Earthman ..to say i'm jealous is an understatement!!
I hope you have a digi camera with you, we demand snow snaps!! (not likely to see any here for the considerable zonal future!!).

Enjoy it!!

Gonzo

over the past 3 poor winters here in Ireland one thing i notice regularly from the charts is the amount of times a supposedly warm mediterranean country like Greece gets cold snaps with sleet/snow way more often than Ireland, especially last winter, they seem to get alot of northerly plunges coming from Russia/eastern Europe.. is this a regular winter occurance there or have they just been extra lucky recently?

ninebeanrows

Something i havent seen in all of my weather watching years is such
a deep and vast cold pool to our east.

If it can spill west we would be sitting in a PROPER easterly:)

It will before winters out..

Look towards the end of JAN the models will back to this scenario on the
coming days and weeks

ninebeanrows

The Models will point towards the impening cold spell in the coming days.

Again it all very promnising. Deep cold pool to our east ready to strike
with blocking to our north. All we need is for a calm down around Iceland
and boooooooooommmmmmmmm..

Were off..

Late January and you'll start thinking your back in 63's mark my words SHE's
COMING:D

RAMP MODE OFF

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

The Models will point towards the impening cold spell in the coming days.

Again it all very promnising. Deep cold pool to our east ready to strike
with blocking to our north. All we need is for a calm down around Iceland
and boooooooooommmmmmmmm..

Were off..

Late January and you'll start thinking your back in 63's mark my words SHE's
COMING:D

RAMP MODE OFF

Hmm, calm down around Iceland..thats like saying if only there was no Azores High..going to be close though, my fingers and toes are crossed!!

WC ramping....
Hmmmm thats given an impending cold spell the kiss of death

Meanwhile it snowed last night here in Manhattan and its bloody cold out there with about an inch or so on the ground.
Theres at least a foot up in the catskills though On friday it was 17c in ny city and now its below zero-theres some contrast!!

Danno

8.9c here in south Laois with some tail-end of heavy showers clipping the area.

CerebralCortex

Earthman wrote:

WC ramping....
Hmmmm thats given an impending cold spell the kiss of death

Meanwhile it snowed last night here in Manhattan and its bloody cold out there with about an inch or so on the ground.
Theres at least a foot up in the catskills though On friday it was 17c in ny city and now its below zero-theres some contrast!!

17 celcius?
17 fahrenheit?

darkman2

Oh dear, looks like cold weather is on hold for the forseeable future. I sure hope Earthman brings the holiday weather home with him! So disappointing - and its the 15 Jan!:(

CerebralCortex

CerebralCortex wrote:

17 celcius?
17 fahrenheit?

It was 17c on friday evening and 16 for most of saturday in the rain and 2c by 11pm saturday night when the rain turned to snow and it pelted it down
Roughly 2 inches in central park today and the wind was biting in a temp of minus 4c blowing the snow around.
It's very icy out there now...
This is due to last untill tuesday when the temp goes back up into the teens celcius here.
They have been having it very mild and totally zonal.
What caused the snow was a blast of unmodified air from Eastern canada which blew down on a northerly at the western end of a storm system moving out into the atlantic.

I'd like to have got up to the catskills today as they already had a lot of snow left over and are supposed to have had over a foot from this.

Gonzo

lads is their any signs of anything heading our way in February, up to January 31st looks like being very poor and zonal with all the cold well out to the east beyond Germany & Poland? Our narrow window of opportunity for decent snow will be fading quickly once we get into February, spring is not that far away:(

darkman2

Excellent 06z, showing an Easterly emerge at 150 hrs, out of the blue really. I hope the 12z keeps it up:D

Danno

Someone order a "proper" easterly? http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3841.png

lucernarian

OMG a true Greenland High! I know that chart occurring is no more likely than an Azores High giving us temps of 15+ but the mere suggestion from the models is most excellent. I'll say no more in case I jinx it;)

Supercell

Lets not get too excited..those charts are pretty much meaningless that far ahead.

Nothing on the reliable horizon yet in terms of real cold.
Tbh i'm liking the zonal we are getting at the moment, its not too windy, its been pretty dry here during the last 12 months or so, and everyday there has been sun, not bad imho for January (and no fecking car window ice scraping like every day seemed to need it in November and early December!!)

ninebeanrows

The beast will roareth come towards the end of this month.

maybe
Remember this time last year what happened?
Nice FI charts and then 4 days out full blown zonal .
It took a month for the Easterly to come and how much snow did you get WC?

That said... (1)The cold pool is much better this year
(2)The conditions for sustainability *might* be there this year.

CerebralCortex

Looks cool but how do I find out what it means?

CerebralCortex

CerebralCortex wrote:

Looks cool but how do I find out what it means?

We'll tell you

I'm sure longfield will confirm this but in the 80's the continent was often in deep freeze-even to the french coast and that cold never got here.

Just because the continent is in deep freeze with the freeze as far west as France doesnt mean it will travel to Ireland or even beyond the south east of England.

However If you got a sustained feed sourced from the Air now over eastern Europe and Russia-then I feel ice days here would happen.
It would want to be a strong feed and not one that goes slack - otherwise it will just fall fowl to modification again.

There are suggestions from models beyond the reliable timeframe that this could happen.
Dont bet a house on it though-just keep watching and at t-96 if you have a HP cell of 1045 or more (preferably 1050+) anchoring over Northern scandinavia-then and only then are you in business.
You're in better business if you have a greenland high as well as that would weaken the atlantic flow nicelay and sustain the easterly.
Theres slight indications in the FI (fantasy island ie outside the reliable time frame) models that that may happen.