Winter 2006 Snow Predictions And Indications Part 7

billy the squid

maquiladora wrote:

Uh oh, the press are at it.....was anyone watching Sky News a few minutes ago? They were showing the headlines of tomorrow's UK papers and it looked like their the mail or express with RUSSIAN WINTER SET TO INVADE NEXT WEEK or something, in the usual size one thousand bold bombasti-font.

there you go.

Mothman

embee wrote:

Oh no.. oh please God no.

I love snow, absolutely love it but I am due a baby in 11 days time... please tell me... how likely is this snow to arrive? I'm in County Louth.... the idea of snow on the roads and me trying to get to the hospital... Holy Lord, please tell me ye're messing

Well, while there is a theoretical possibility as there always is, the chances of disruption are slim, so nothing to be worried about for moment. Give it 5-6 days, and the finer details of the weather for near end of month will become more clear.

And good luck

I've a 4 month old on my lap at moment, so still quite fresh

Gonzo

ha if it snows here next weekend (27/28/29th January) i wont even get to see it as i'll be in edinburgh.

Gonzo

metcheck have posted alot of snow for dublin from Saturday 28th January to Friday 3rd of February with a daytime high of -1C for Tuesday 31st of January.
oh please god let this work out for once.

Gordon

Earthman asked me to check this thread out in the coming days/week as I live in Athens, Greece.

When I read his pm I must say that I was skeptical at the thought of a big chill here soon as I was looking out into a beautiful mild (cold for Greeks) and sunny day. But then two minutes later some clouds came over the lip of the bowl of Athens to the East and it started raining. So thanks Con, you've jinxed us, and I don't even have a brolly!

We're all hoping for a bit of snow here to be honest, as much as people gripe about the cold (and the heat) they want to see snow, and if it is anything like it was two years ago there will be joy. So if you are after snow over there in Ireland - I reckon Greece will get it for a few reasons:

- We had major snow two years ago and last year was very mild in Feb/March, it was like we had no winter.
- We won the European cup thing at football when everyone, including the Greeks, thought we had no chance.
- And we want it more than you!!! hahaaarrrr!!

Either way, I hope someone gets a bit of snow but jaysis I hope it won't be as bad as Moscow..

Gonzo

i want it to be bad:) after 14 years of barely anything I want to see 10+ inchs, a week long event at least, subzero every day, icles from the roofs, roads closed, everyone off school & work outside enjoying the snow taking pictures, posting here on the forum, building snowmen and snowbabes, building snow castles.... just one week of a snowkingdom in ireland is all I ask for. At the same time tho I dont want any powercuts! If it works out for us this time it could be another 15/20 years away again till the next dumping of snow and by then we'll all be too old to enjoy it properly.

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

metcheck have posted alot of snow for dublin from Saturday 28th January to Friday 3rd of February with a daytime high of -1C for Tuesday 31st of January.
oh please god let this work out for once.

LoL
I see that,I put in Wicklow and Wexford and the same results.
About 15cms.

Huge bucket of salt with that though as they are basing it on FI GFS charts.It may or may not happen.This mornings run has posters over on TWO upset already...

I notice in the Late FI charts, theres a big maratime low with NW winds at first and then NE winds with potentially very cold air in both especially with the NE winds.
But if that low was cauught up in -35c 500mb air,I think those Nwesterlies would bring Durrow a lot of snow.

What has me interested in the chart though is the pressure remains very low in the Irish sea as do the temps in the East so It looks very snowy to me, if it came off.

Very interesting synoptics potentially over the next 2 to 3 weeks, so hopefully it wont go wrong

Oh and welcome aboard Gordon

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn2042.png


Yum yum

OK this is getting extremely interesting now...

Lets do a check list of whats available in this FI run

• 20 knott east wind
• -10 850 air over the whole Irish sea
• low pressure (less than 1015mb)
• high pressure positioned in NW scandinavia
• a cold pool feed running all the way to Siberia
• Greenland pressure rising and azores low pressure meaning the Atlantic goes to sleep

Basically more than the 4 things I said earlier in this thread that were needed for lots of snow
Yup if this was the chart at t72-96 I'd be getting very excited as regards extreme cold ICE and snow

As it stands, its 8 days out and not too deep into FI territory
Monday and Tuesdays runs will be crucial but its looking very good so far

Jeepers,Mariah and joseph :eek:

According to this run and bear in mind ,GFS usually over does temps positively, we would see 5 or 6 ice days (ie sub zero maxima) in the East!!

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn26417.png

Just look at the blue minus 1 shade bulging across the Irish sea and into the East and midlands and thats despite a stiff onshore wind.

That would feel bitter,bone chillingly bitter.

If it were to come off...

Thats the type of winter spell I remember from the 80's when the washing used freeze on the line in the middle of the day...

LFCFan

Lads Lads Lads. Have yis learnt nothing yet. Do you not realise that talking about it and hoping for it will just make it not happen. It's a scientific FACT, that if you wish for something too hard, it won't happen. I swear it's true. I've wished for a Lotto win for years and I've never won it so it has to be true

Supercell

Indeed, I think the venerable Earthman is coming down with WC'itus!!

Two runs out of 10 supporting the cold snap on the 12z in FI, hardly partytime!!

Still, its like thinking what would I do if I won the lotto..pretty intoxicating !!

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Indeed, I think the venerable Earthman is coming down with WC'itus!!

Two runs out of 10 supporting the cold snap on the 12z in FI, hardly partytime!!

Still, its like thinking what would I do if I won the lotto..pretty intoxicating !!

Not at all

I am hopefull and wont be coming down with wc'itis untill I see this type of thing on Tuesday...
I suspect you will have that disease then too if ....


Other than that,I'm happy that theres more cold out to the East than I've seen in 15 or 20 years plus theres been two scandy highs so far this winter so ,I'm pretty much hopefull.

I wont be in tears if it doesnt happen.
And untill Tuesday or wenesday,I wouldnt be surprised if it doesnt happen.
But I'm thinking more than 50:50 in favour.

Supercell

Have to agree with you there there, have to admit its been a long while (too long!!) since a real proper 80's style freeze up has happened on the continent, the potential is definately there, my fingers have been burned so many times in the last few years predicting the BIG one that its all on hold until maybe T96..if still there ..its do a jig time though

ninebeanrows

yea i have a feeling this won't be the "big" one but i can see a decent snowfall
happening from it. A 5 days spell of temps of 0-3c with snow showers and
possibly a front or two.

At the moment its wait wait wait and maybe we might just see.

I'd like to stress that my personal opinion is that February will be a very cold month overall
with many cold spells.

Danno

Bloody Hell, those charts are very consistant for the last few days now...

Confidence rising...

If by Wednesday's 1200hrs model run, it is still the same then I'll be greasing up the sleigh...

lucernarian

The edge of an acceptable timeframe really but still only a week away:
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1681.png
A true easterly caused by HP ridging over to Scandanavia from Siberia.

The GFS model is sticking to its guns for something like 3 or 4 days now yeah? Things are looking better and better, though what we're seeing on the models will not be as severe as 1982, for example, so far. More along the lines of 1996. I still have to be pragmatic and treat them as unlikely. I can't be let down then;)

And Earthman is a true ramper this evening:)

Danno

Go on Earthman ya good thing! :P :P :P Ramp it up

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

what we're seeing on the models will not be as severe as 1982, for example, so far.

I know its FI, but that said,I wouldnt agree there in the sense that january 1982 was an Easterly that trapped an atlantic low pressure system on the East coast , with most of Ireland on the cold side of it-thats more than possible in some of these cold outliers.Tonights for instance has introduced a low of 970mb that if it exists and went in would do the damage.Most of the runs in the past couple of days have provided the fodder for significant snow shower capability in an Easterly feed off the Irish sea-ie manna from heaven from a snow point of view in Eastern coastal counties.

More along the lines of 1996.

That was a Northerly-Good for Ulster North connaught, maybe North Leinster and the midlands...but good for a few inches only usually and no where near the potential of a good siberian sourced Easterly.

And Earthman is a true ramper this evening:)

Yeah somebody has to do it...

Gonzo

breaking away from the exciting easterly for a second, do you think Weatherchecks thoughts on snow tonight from the backedge of the cold front from the northwest could produce anything at all or is it just way to mild for anything to come of it?

Supercell

Gonzo wrote:

breaking away from the exciting easterly for a second, do you think Weatherchecks thoughts on snow tonight from the backedge of the cold front from the northwest could produce anything at all or is it just way to mild for anything to come of it?

Snow tonight in Ireland..erm..not likely..do you have a house on top of a mountain somewhere ?

Supercell

Gonzo wrote:

breaking away from the exciting easterly for a second, do you think Weatherchecks thoughts on snow tonight from the backedge of the cold front from the northwest could produce anything at all or is it just way to mild for anything to come of it?

If you mean http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054877521 ..

Am not sure if WC is posting that as a joke or not.

Suffice to say..thats not going to happen, probably not even if you live on top of a mountain.

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

I know its FI, but that said,I wouldnt agree there in the sense that january 1982 was an Easterly that trapped an atlantic low pressure system on the East coast , with most of Ireland on the cold side of it-thats more than possible in some of these cold outliers.Tonights for instance has introduced a low of 970mb that if it exists and went in would do the damage.Most of the runs in the past couple of days have provided the fodder for significant snow shower capability in an Easterly feed off the Irish sea-ie manna from heaven from a snow point of view in Eastern coastal counties

I see where you're coming from. I was thinking from a temperature point of view, i.e the 850 hPa temps. I wouldn't even dare predict snowfall amounts at over a week away:p

Was there an easterly in the winter of '95/'96? I always thought it was a northerly until I read otherwise. Am I mixing 2 cold spells up?

Edit: Btw, when exactly was the 1982 cold outbreak?

darkman2

Hi everyone, the charts are great and something very special is coming. The bbc monthly outlook was updated today unusually in response to the changing scenario and its a cold outlook. The bbc metoffice seem to have been caught offside and there own model is looking increasingly ominous. The JMA, well thats just scary. The ECM is looking fine and the GFS as we know has been coming up with some spectacular solutions to our little pickle. Be warned though, it still might change but im reasonably confident now that something good is on the horizon:D

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Edit: Btw, when exactly was the 1982 cold outbreak?

Started on january 7th
V cold cloudy and windy on the 8th from the East.

Started snowing here on the wenesday night on the 8th
By Thursday morning it was a foot deep and drifting-it had been snowing a total white out all night.
By Lunch time, the snow continued and was drifting 3 or 4 feet deep.
The electricity was gone at this stage.
The white out continued, the night of the ninth, all day of the 10th and cleared by Lunchtime on saturday.

Yes it snowed heavy non stop with a constant gale from wenesday night to saturday Lunchtime.
Drifts here up to the top of the telephone poles.
The road into Arklow from here completely blocked.

On the high ground the drifts were up to the tops of the tree's ie 30ft :eek:

That was a snowstorm of day after tomorrow proportions.
The Army had to air lift provisions into many parts of wicklow.
On the Saturday a Cold high pressure desended keeping the country sub zero for about another week.

When the mild eventually returned, the drifts in the fields here stayed for at least another 3 weeks which was not surprising as they were massive.
They stayed despite all the rain.
The rest of that winter was mild.

ninebeanrows

I put on kiddy school girl face:D

LoL

Speaking of a 1982 blizzard...

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3841.png

Thats FI from tonights run


Ramp Ramp

ninebeanrows

An utterly ridiculus run:eek:

Ah well we can always emmmmmmmmmmm dream!

Nite nites

Danno

FFS! IF THAT ONLY WERE TO HAPPEN! (http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn3841.png)

Goodnight Ireland, curtains, cancel everything for February, Valentines is off, ya may dig herself outta a 10 foot snow drift!

lucernarian

This morning's charts are also incredible:
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1922.png

If the models continue showing this, we could be in for the worst easterly in 15 years!! The above chart is sadistic.

Half the ensembles are now going for a spell of weather with <-10 850 hPa temperatures. One hits -15:v: