Winter 2006 Snow Predictions And Indications Part 7

hellboy99

To_be_confirmed wrote:

This morning's charts are also incredible:
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1922.png

If the models continue showing this, we could be in for the worst easterly in 15 years!! The above chart is sadistic.

Half the ensembles are now going for a spell of weather with <-10 850 hPa temperatures. One hits -15:v:

looks like the chart in the film "The Day After Tomorrow"

maquiladora

From the Norwich Evening News :

Its forecast was backed by the PA WeatherCentre, which said the mild weather was set to change from this weekend, with very cold easterly winds expected to start blowing in from Thursday next week. It warned the Government to prepare for the risk of severe disruption from frost and snow.

A spokesman for the PA WeatherCentre said there was some doubt over the forecast but indications were the cold air would head west.

He said: "From around next Thursday the wind does seem to be turning more easterly and it is very cold at the moment in Russia and that is where the air would be coming from.

"However, it is a long way off and things could certainly change."

He added: "If the cold snap does arrive, then there would probably be sub-zero temperatures by day and hard frosts overnight and a risk of snow showers in the east."

However the bleak forecast was downplayed by Jim Bacon, from Weatherquest at the University of East Anglia.

He said: "At present we are getting temperatures of about 6C more than average. What we are maybe looking at is a return to more normal January temperatures with some frosts in the mornings. But to talk of Moscow type temperatures is nonsense.

"Towards the end of next week there may be some wintry flurries of snow, but it does not look that severe."

http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/content/News/story.aspx?brand=ENOnline&category=News&tBrand=enonline&tCategory=news&itemid=NOED19%20Jan%202006%2012%3A03%3A22%3A833

Some wintry flurries of snow in eastern parts of england.... :v:

Will we just get a chilly let down or will longfield's beast from the east have us up to our necks in snow...who knows...who knows...

That Guy from the Norwich university doesnt know either.

FI is FI

That said,its looking good.

@ To be_confirmed-Dont you mean the best Easterly

This could all go pear shaped in the coming days,I respect Mother natures perogative to change her mind.

However Moscow is predicted to get down to -44c :eek: next week, thats 10 degrees colder that whats even making the news over there now...
And all that is the upstream source of this potential Easterly.

This is a bit like the library giving you a good book to read but only giving you a chapter at a time.
It will be known by tuesday, whats going to happen

Wheres the Tardis when you need it

Gordon

That's what I hear here too, Tuesday will be make or break in Athens.

Right now we're back to sunny, cool weather and not a cloud in sight. Jinx gone for a while..

Scubadevils

I'm trying not to get too caught up in the excitement this time round as we have been let down this side of the Irish sea a few times now. I believe cold/very cold weather is on the way and I know its not set in stone what it will bring for the UK or Ireland but I am reading the usual comments on netweather in relation to either the East or South East of England. I just worry that when it does arrive we will be watching the English news and reading various comments about the amount of snow they have and we will be desperately reading met.ie latest weather reports to will the temps to drop that bit more or the dew points will be that bit too high for snow, or no precip coming over the Irish sea....etc etc etc :mad: Had to have that rant, sorry

ninebeanrows

6z Control was an Outlier........










A MILD OUTLIER!!

well of sorts anywa!:D

5 runs bring int the col around the 26th of Jan
The control does on the 28th of Jan!

The liklyhood of an easterly which will bite us here is really growing!

I sensed it coming a while back the synoptics are unfolding!

lets just hope that we arent left out in the cold next weekend!:D

ninebeanrows

I antcipate that WE are embarking on the best winter spell for
well over 10 years.

Memories will be restored in coming weeks, dreams realised, lets really
enjoy it here! Be friendly to each other and share pics and stuff with
each other!

I think it is possible that for the next month will be see a signifigant
period of below average temperatures.

Boy i cant wait! I've waited sooo long!:D

Oh dear

WC has started ramp mode

Please wait untill tuesday for that-bite your lip and let me do it instead for omens sake

I guess you've seen the UK MO 10 day outlook then??

The last line is frightening so I put in bold in case ye miss it...

Easterly winds will develop early in this period as high pressure takes control to the north of the United Kingdom. Many areas will be noticeably colder with widespread frost expected. Some patches of freezing fog will also occur and these may linger all day in places. There is also a threat of snow at times, particularly in eastern areas. After temperatures fall to mostly below normal early in this period, a few very cold days are expected. The probability of milder weather then returning looks low at this stage.

Remember the UKMO arent obliged to forecast for the Republic but we get our own dinners served up from the Irish sea in an Easterly

Gonzo

i just hope this easterly doesnt start till around sunday the 29th or monday 30th as i will be away in scotland next friday-sunday and dont fancy getting stuck in a airport overnight on my way back to dublin.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Oh dear

WC has started ramp mode

Please wait untill tuesday for that-bite your lip and let me do it instead for omens sake

I guess you've seen the UK MO 10 day outlook then??

The last line is frightening so I put in bold in case ye miss it...

Remember the UKMO arent obliged to forecast for the Republic but we get our own dinners served up from the Irish sea in an Easterly

Hi Earthman, we are on the verge now of something not seen for a decade and Im convinced that from next Thursday. Heavy, persistent or perhaps longer spells of snow in the East. The charts are great, dosnt get any better. No Azores high to ruin everything, jet stream dive south, weakening of the polar vortex, extreme cold pooling to our east:D

Strasser

Much optimism about for a decent cold spell both here and on other forums but we have been let down so many times before and its still a long way off. I refuse to get excited yet.

Gonzo

same here, let down so many, many times, even in the 80s some coldsnaps dominated the entire european continent and UK mainland while stopping at the welsh coastline with either rain/sleet showers over ireland or snow failed to make it across the sea, however for some reason i do feel more confident about this one and usually my confidence is always near 0% when it comes to getting decent cold snaps in Ireland, right now my confidence is about 50% the highest in many years.

AdeleS

Who's getting excited?

ninebeanrows

With the Images chucked out by wetterzentrale the 12z is the most
astonishing run i have ever witnessed.

It would spell Irelands most severe winter set up since 1987 and the prospect
of a breakdown for more than a few days looks very unlikely.

Hold onto your hats folks i think that we could be embarking on a long journey:eek:

Scubadevils

Hmmmm. (my heart is pounding but my head is trying to stay calm)

Been here before keeps jumping back into my head. Glad to see you are optimistic again WC!

Well I've a jcb for hire...

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1802.png

This runs FI has the mild back with gusto by feb 4th
So about a week at best with plenty of dots to join up before then.

It may be the start of a downgrade like we saw this time last year

I blame wc's ramping-I told him to wait untill tuesday for omens sake

Shur up WC

ninebeanrows

Ye sure its all the start of the downfall:D

This cold spell is DIFFERENT!

God Earthman i expect you to listen to me:rolleyes:

Supercell

/me puts on his dancing shoes!!

darkman2

Latest UKMO is a cracker at 144 tonight:D

Gonzo

once i get a few days of 6+ inchs of snow i'll be really happy, my dream of 10+ inchs is a bit far fetched but if that happpened I wouldnt be able to contain myself with the excitement of it all.

also most people who are 16 and under in this nation of ours will have never really experienced much more than 2 or 3 inchs of snow in their livetime so far and the coming event if it happens the way we want it to they'll see how we really had it in the 80s and oh wot fun it was.

Takeshi_Kovacs

well at least i got the turf in and the firewood cut up, i am sorted then ... beast from the east!! bring it on....

lucernarian

darkman2 wrote:

Latest UKMO is a cracker at 144 tonight:D

True enough:) The models are unwavering, and even if the potential is blunted somewhat as the time draws closer, it should deliver more than the feeble attempt of February last year.

Carpenter

Hi
Can somebody tell or show us poor sods who don,t know how to read these charts what we are looking for pls

SpitfireIV

This is getting all too exciting guys, I know I shouldnt let it get the better of me, and I hope that I wont be here in two weeks time saying 'but they said it would snow!', but I'll just go with the surge of excitement for now

I'm 22, and whether its my memory thats lacking, or something else, I dont know, but I can never remember a decent snow event, to me 'snow' was something I woke up to and it was gone come evening time or next day at the very latest, thats all I've ever been used too. Maybe because I live in Carlow town, I hear talk that its down in a bit of a hollow and so seems to escape the worst of the weather, but I dont know, seems there is something strange anyway.

But now I see Metcheck is showing snow for FIVE days in a row, I know its FI, but still........:D


Right, first I'll make one of these:




And then one of these:



I'll see if I have time for anything else after that :v:

CroppyBoy1798

Another fascinating run tonight.
I see the Dublin ensemble has tonights operational nudging -10 850 air from late on the 27th right through to the 5th... or somewhere inbetween -5 and -10 and it has most of the ensemle members clustered near it. So its not an outlier as such.
It is still firmly FI teritory in my view untill T+96 though.
But the persistant nature of what these models are saying plus my gut instinct looking at whats on offer-tells me this could be very very very interesting in the fortnight from next thursday onwards.

I'll make one other comment which will be more valid I think if these things keep getting shown from Tuesday...

It makes a pleasant change to have to scour FI for mild outbreaks as opposed to the usual.
I'm tending to the conclusion that there could well be a longish cold spell in here mixed with some milder blips.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Another fascinating run tonight.
I see the Dublin ensemble has tonights operational nudging -10 850 air from late on the 27th right through to the 5th... or somewhere inbetween -5 and -10 and it has most of the ensemle members clustered near it. So its not an outlier as such.
It is still firmly FI teritory in my view untill T+96 though.
But the persistant nature of what these models are saying plus my gut instinct looking at whats on offer-tells me this could be very very very interesting in the fortnight from next thursday onwards.

I'll make one other comment which will be more valid I think if these things keep getting shown from Tuesday...

It makes a pleasant change to have to scour FI for mild outbreaks as opposed to the usual.
I'm tending to the conclusion that there could well be a longish cold spell in here mixed with some milder blips.

Hi EM, temps are under done on this run I think. They should be two or three degrees lower considering the synoptics and the massive cold pool to our east:)

ninebeanrows

Esxcellant 18z ensembles and great agreement on a prolonged and siginificant
cold spell. Temperatures slightly disappointing but that can change.

Scubadevils

I know its all FI and I'm still a doubter but based on the 18z when would we expect to see our first snow?

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Hi EM, temps are under done on this run I think. They should be two or three degrees lower considering the synoptics and the massive cold pool to our east:)

Putting on my experience hat...
And looking at the surface air temps at the source,I think the GFS will have trouble coping with their effect.
The surface air temp in the near continent is as if not much more important than the upper air temps in determining what we will get.

From what I remember if Britain in the 80's had an ice day of maybe just -1 or 0 we got plus 2

Grand for snow with the upper air at -7 I think and a dew point likely to be well below zero.

I'm not concerned about how the models are handling the local details at all,I'm looking at the over all picture and in particular I'm waiting untill Tuesday before I'm going to be very certain as to this being nailed down.

ps have a read of the Wicklow snow thread in 1963
Villages were cut off for weeks here but the Dáil debate is bot interesting and funny.