Winter 2006 Snow Predictions And Indications Part 7

darkman2

Felixdhc wrote:

I know its all FI and I'm still a doubter but based on the 18z when would we expect to see our first snow?

Probrably Friday id imagine. The 120 fax chart (UKMO) is much better and more likely then 18z GFS at 120:)

Scubadevils

Thanks darkman, I'll start to get excited from around Tuesday - its not going to consume me this time round! My wife keeps pointing out how many times since this addiction started in Dec 04 I have said its going to happen this time - as she said earlier tonight, "I'll believe when the snow is falling outside"

Felix
I have some news about Oslo
Its been snowing there for the last 3 days
20cms so far
Thats about 9 inches

Scubadevils

Thats after going on hold as I was sick during the week which initially seemed like a kidney infection but was actually kidney stones - had the pleasure of the Matter Hospital yesterday for 8 hours! No Oslo for me next weekend now :mad: We plan booking it now for Mid-Feb. Thanks for the info though

Awww schucks sorry to hear about that
Get well soon

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=42695&whichpage=10

Is the thread I got that info from

A poster from Oslo on it.

The other main poster there "Nordic Snowman" sure does get his fill of snow !!

Have a look at the photo he took today on the way out to shop

Scubadevils

Cheers, was a painfull experience, I wouldn't recommend it!

Some picture, would really love to see something like that. I will never forget walking to school with my brother on the first morning of the snow in '82 and the front door was completely covered by a drift - we proceeded to build an igloo that day! Although as my mother now reminds me it was no fun when the electricity went and didn't come back for well over a week. We had to move in with my grandparents as the power was still on there due to being on a hospital grid or something.

Another question, whats so important about the Greenland High and its pressure? I see mentions of 1070mb and how special that could be.

It's all part of the blocking of the Atlantic and the scenario needed to run the jet south of us and encourage more of the Beast from the East to spread his legs west.

The bigger the block the more likely and the more often he'll come to our shores to play.

Anyways-I'm off to my pit now

Lets have more of this tomorrow.

Scubadevils

Cheers, so much to learn!

Yeah, best get some sleep...

AdeleS

too funny croppy boy :v: :v: :v:

I wish you the best of luck with the second one

00z run = winters over

All these pages and theres going to be no snow and very little cold according to it.
Dublin ensemble completely different with positive 850 air right through the period.
Almost t shirt weather were it not for the rain...

Gas it just goes to show that publiclly released models can be an indication-but really its only the people that run them that knows the true story behind each one of them.

This could have been a mild experiment but its unlikely,its more of a downgrading of expectations.

06z run is being released now,I wonder if that will swing the other way again.
I said that 96 hours is the only reliable forecast time and while all those cold runs were nice to look at, It's just fairy stories untill you see whats happening in the T+96 tbh.
So Tuesday of next week will tell.

Scubadevils

06z run seems to end our dream too, this really is the biggest of easterly let-downs! To have something so potentialy spectacular only a few days away and now to watch is drift away this morning is an awful shame. Chances are by tonight we will be looking at a cool week to come with frosty nights (although we were looking at that anyway!). Only a few weeks left too! Maybe both runs are blips :rolleyes: :v:

Supercell

Not looking good is it, still too far away to be reliable, heres hoping that it flips back.

Scubadevils

It may flip back but past experience seems to be a flip back to something far less potent that really only gives some snow to the east of England.

Supercell

As long as the ecm and meto charts are still game on, then there's still hope, hope i'm not clutching at straws.

ninebeanrows

I swear it wasnt mee:eek: :v:

ninebeanrows

Felixdhc wrote:

06z run seems to end our dream too, this really is the biggest of easterly let-downs! To have something so potentialy spectacular only a few days away and now to watch is drift away this morning is an awful shame. Chances are by tonight we will be looking at a cool week to come with frosty nights (although we were looking at that anyway!). Only a few weeks left too! Maybe both runs are blips :rolleyes: :v:

We expected a blip, things like this have happened before and got better.

We have UKMO, FAX charts and a good ECM run backed up by their ensembles.

GFS is struggling with the situation now

I rate the chance at 50:50 now of a strong easterly

Well what the last two runs have actually done is weaken and shorten next w/ends easterly and push back the Easterly proper into further away FI territory.

Dejá Vu really as thats what happened last year and each run it was pushed back further untill we got our too late disappointing Easterly in late Feb...

Thats a pity as this year the cold pool is very strong obviously with moscow predicted to get down to -44c next week.
Lets hope it doesnt wait too far beyond early feb as there might still be some hope of pulling in some of moscows finest.
Even if it waited untill the same time as last year ie the last week in feb, then in theory it should do more damage than then due to that surface air cold pooling being a million times colder.

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

Well what the last two runs have actually done is weaken and shorten next w/ends easterly and push back the Easterly proper into further away FI territory.

Dejá Vu really as thats what happened last year and each run it was pushed back further untill we got our too late disappointing Easterly in late Feb...

Thats a pity as this year the cold pool is very strong obviously with moscow predicted to get down to -44c next week.
Lets hope it doesnt wait too far beyond early feb as there might still be some hope of pulling in some of moscows finest.
Even if it waited untill the same time as last year ie the last week in feb, then in theory it should do more damage than then due to that surface air cold pooling being a million times colder.

But Earthman the GFS does not have a clue whats going to happen.
The spread of the ENS's show a model having serious trouble with
grinding out the synoptic. ECM has really been like a rock in this
situation and its ENS's are very positive. All other models back and
Easterly with sub -8c 850hpa temps by next Friday.

The 132hr Fax Charts was adjusted to go with the ECM model which
shows it has the support of the UKMET.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4a.gif

This would progress into a memorabler easterly

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

But Earthman the GFS does not have a clue whats going to happen.
The spread of the ENS's show a model having serious trouble with
grinding out the synoptic. ECM has really been like a rock in this
situation and its ENS's are very positive. All other models back and
Easterly with sub -8c 850hpa temps by next Friday.

The 132hr Fax Charts was adjusted to go with the ECM model which
shows it has the support of the UKMET.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4a.gif

This would progress into a memorabler easterly

I hear what you are saying.
Weather forecasters are going to have a lot more detailed information than you or I have and they will have their training and experience to judge
Thats Human input.
I dont care what model is involved, whether it be a GFS that throws out the cold or an ECM that sticks with it-NEITHER can pin down what will happen a week ahead especially in these synoptics.

They can roughly guess where a Scandi high will be but its orientation a few hundred miles in one direction or another would change the weather a great deal.It can also either aid or put back an atlantic take over.
The same applies to what the Atlantic does or doesnt do.

Now I agree that an Easterly is imminent but as I've said all along its potential cannot be nailed down untill next week sometime-theres just too much uncertainty.

The only thing we can say for certain is that theres a mammoth amount of cold air available to drag in from the East but Only if the conditions are right and we wont know that untill withing 72 to 96 hours of the Easterly being bedded down.

Gonzo

i dont know what to believe anymore, one day they say were in for a siberian blast, the next day it says were in for normal atlantic weather, if these are the charts that the bbc and rte rely on for their tv forecasts then its no wonder that they can get the weather totally wrong from time to time! im no expert, usually tho when the charts show mild air for Ireland it usually stays that way:( ah well if its just gonna be normal weather next weekend I can be thankfull that I wont run the risk of being snowbound in an airport waiting to get back home, that would drive me crazy. looks like that cold air that was heading our way is being pushed southwestwards all over france and spain and heading toward north africa leaving ireland and almost all of the UK in mild atlantic weather. of course tomorrow those charts could have us at -10 again and knee deep in snow.

If its any consolation Gonzo-if I was a betting man,I'd still bet on severe cold and snow from next weekend onwards-it just looks too much like it.

It's not a given though till I see the +72 and +96 fax charts next week and some less wobbling from GFS

p.s the dewpoints today are very low given the high temps

+10c here with a dp of +3c
Humidity at 64% - is quite low too.

Those stats next week end will be very interesting especially the dew points.

Gordon

Gorgeously sunny and cool today again..

lucernarian

The last two GFS computerised forecasts/models were a real kick in the proverbial stones for snow lovers. It's very interesting to see the UKMO and ECM sticking to their guns... it's not over yet.

I'm suprised the backtrack by the models hadn't happened sooner and I was starting to think that the GFS forecast as we saw a few days ago might just come off.

But who knows? Those charts can only get better as far as Ireland is concerned.

SpitfireIV

Jeez, whats going on??

Yesterday Metcheck were showing five days of snow in a row (FI, I know, but still) and now today its five days of rain! :mad:

Accuweather werent showing any snow yesterday, and now they show snow for next weekend :rolleyes:

Confused....

Ah well, I guess I may have to settle for a snowless Irish winter (as usual), I'll have to find other means for the ski's



CroppyBoy1798

CroppyBoy1798

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Jeez, whats going on??

Yesterday Metcheck were showing five days of snow in a row (FI, I know, but still) and now today its five days of rain! :mad:

Accuweather werent showing any snow yesterday, and now they show snow for next weekend :rolleyes:

Confused....

Ah well, I guess I may have to settle for a snowless Irish winter (as usual), I'll have to find other means for the ski's



CroppyBoy1798

Met check base that on FI output so its really unreliable.
Yesterday the FI GFS was showing intense cold here.
Today it isnt.
I'd ignore them tbh at that range.

maquiladora

Don't panic. 12Z looks better. :v:

darkman2

OK we are in a bit of trouble here because of the sketchy link with the Siberian high. This is now make or break, if tomorrows charts show the same thing then its game over and nothing significant will occur:(

Scubadevils

Winters over :v:

Bartronilic

You'r forgeting your're living in IRELAND where the weather is highly unpredictable and changes day to day (Feb 1998, its snowed and was cloudless and mild in the same day). My american cousins can't get over the sudden rain showes or sunny spells. Winter is far from over.

ninebeanrows

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