Odds

Doctor Fell

Wombatman wrote:

Dave Colclough on a similar point
http://poker.sportinglife.com/Features/story_57033.shtml

Good link alright, I especially like the following bit:

"More importantly though, the probabilities that...

An Ace or a King will flop is 43% of the time. "

Oh yeah? Then how come every time I raise with AK I never get a flop with an A or a K??? :mad: (btw I know me having an A or K reduces the odds a lot)
That's the problem with theory, it never works in real life...for me anyway!

Hitman Actual

Is El Blonde correct here:

"Fortunately an opponent with two odd cards is almost 40-1 to flop 2 pair."

Thought it was ~48/1 ??

shroomfox

The chance of getting any three of a kind is approximately 0.021276. (1/47)

The same three of a kind again though (with the same or different kickers) is:

4 choose 3 (the three of a kind) times 48 times 47 divided by all possible hands (it's not 49 times 48 because you can't count the remaining three)

and that's

4 x 48 x 47 = 9024 divided by all possible card combinations (2,598,960) = approximately 0.0034721 or .3%. Then the possibility of getting both of them is .021276 x .0034721 = 0.0000738723996 or 73 times out a million. Does that sound right?

The possibility of getting 3 Jacks twice in a row is .0034721 squared then, isn't it? So it's 0.00001205547841 or 12 times out of a million.

I don't know if this is right or not, but I used to be good at counting and probability before I forgot it all!

I forgot - this is five cards, so this is your chance of getting it by the flop.

OTliddy

This is leaving cert ordinary level.
The 3s has been answered correctly by about 7 different people. I'll give the 3 jacks a go.

I'm taking you got pocket jacks once and one jack the other hand. But i'm also taking into account the chances of you getting no jacks, and 3 coming out in the community cards. You would get 3(no more, no less) jacks every 172 hands(4/52x3/51x2/50x48/49x47/48x46/47x45/46x7C3).
About 2/3rd the time you get them in the 7 cards, you will have at least one jack

hotspur

To those who said that the odds of being dealt 33 was 221 to 1, it isn't it's 220 to 1, not important in itself but if it's based on thinking that 1 in x chance equates to x to 1 then you may screw up on your working out of pot odds.
If you toss a coin and heads is a 1 in 2 chance is it a 2-1 shot? A real dog? This is far far more important than any of these odds of 33 twice in a row and it seems that some of you don't know it. If something has a 1 in x chance of happening then it is x-1:1, so a 1 in 5 chance is 4-1. Really really important to understand that, especially if you only think in terms of x to 1 shots.

shroomfox

This is leaving cert ordinary level.

Counting 3 jacks in a row twice defnitely isn't Leaving Cert ordinary level - It's third level at the least man! Counting problems on Leaving Cert Higher level are nowhere near as complex as that.