Are people really this gullible?

pork99

Coalition still seen as safest guardians of the economy

Senan Molony

Political Correspondent

THE Government is winning the battle for the hearts and minds of voters on the crucial issue of economic competence, a new poll shows.

And the FF/PD Coalition remains the majority preference to be in power after the next election, which would make it a hat-trick of poll victories for Ahern and Harney.

The Government is the choice of 39pc of the electorate, compared to 33pc backing for a Rainbow coalition of Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens.

Since the last such TNS/MRBI poll for the Irish Times in September, the Government has strengthened as the preferred option by eight percentage points, while the Rainbow option has slipped by three points.

Some 16pc of voters opted for neither arrangement and 12pc had no opinion, but the results will be a further welcome boost for the Government.

Fianna Fail and the PDs are seen as the safest guardians of the economy.

Some 44pc of voters wanted them to continue to hold the financial reins after the next election, while only 29pc backed the Rainbow option.

Last month's positive budget undoubtedly played its part, but the electorate is showing little sign thus far of tiring of the Government, even through the Coalition will be ten years in continuous power by the next election. On prices, the FF/PD alliance has clawed back lost public confidence after the Eddie Hobbs-led consumer complaint crisis of last summer.

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1546633&issue_id=13578

During the week I was at a presentation given by the economist Jim Power. The jist of what he said was that from 2000 to 2005 overall inflation was about 24% (caveat: I'm giving rough figures - can't remember exact ones). Yet in that period most costs related to the private sector either went up by less that that rate or experienced price deflation, e.g. clothing and footware where prices fell by about 6 or 7% (due to global competition)

The biggest contributer to inflation in this period was the public sector - waste disposal up by about 140%, ESB charges up by 48% and so on in health and education. This, of course, is the cost of benchmarking being passed onto consumers and businesses.

The effect of this is that private companies, especially SMEs, are being squeezed. This is particularily injurious to exporters. Apparently the value of exports for 2005 only grew by 2 or 3% (but only due to inflation not real growth) yet overall the value of world trade grew by 8%.

Irish manufacturing industry marked time in 2005, with an increase of 2.5% in export output, only sufficient to match inflation.

Services industry exports fell away from its double-digit growth of recent years to a low 4% growth according to the IEA review.

John Whelan CEO of the Exporters Association stated:

"The only export sector to show significant growth was the pharmaceutical /chemical sector which increased exports by 8%. Most other manufacturing sectors were at or below rate of inflation increase"

He went on to say;

"The concern of most Irish exporters is that in a year when:

* World trade growth was very strong, at approx 8% for 2005 according to the OECD.
* The euro weakened by 13% against the US dollar and by 4% against sterling.
* And Extra-EU industrial exports grew in all the member states by an average of 9%

Irish industrial exports grew by only 2.5%",

http://www.irishexporters.ie/PR9Jan2006_01.shtml

Things may be fine for now but the current boom is built on property (building houses for one another) and consumer spending (selling cars and handbags to one another). One way or another both are heavily dependent on credit - how long is this sustainable? Why don't people realise that this government is actually in the long term sabottaging the economy with their vote-buying SSIA scam and their incontinent public spending?

ButtermilkJack

100% in agreement with that mate. Great point. It's a shame that most people's perception of our government is that of 'competence'.

Although I would be fairly sceptical of any 'polls' rising in national newspapers.

Our man in Havana

I want to know how do they select people for polling? In all my life I have never been approached for my opinions.

coolhandluke

[QUOTE=pork99
The biggest contributer to inflation in this period was the public sector - waste disposal up by about 140%, ESB charges up by 48% and so on in health and education. This, of course, is the cost of benchmarking being passed onto consumers and businesses.

The effect of this is that private companies, especially SMEs, are being squeezed. This is particularily injurious to exporters. Apparently the value of exports for 2005 only grew by 2 or 3% (but only due to inflation not real growth) yet overall the value of world trade grew by 8%.

[/QUOTE]

U may well be on to something all right,in my town the sports shop and a shoe shop have gone wallop in the last month.

jd

The biggest contributer to inflation in this period was the public sector - waste disposal up by about 140%, ESB charges up by 48% and so on in health and education. This, of course, is the cost of benchmarking being passed onto consumers and businesses.

Hold on a second- while I agree about the stealth taxation, I'm not so sure you can say it is just due to benchmarking. ESB charges are up because the govt. wants a dividend paid to the exchequer. Waste disposal has to be charged for-and the increase in charges is not due to benchmarking-it is because we can't just plough everything in to landfill forever.
jd

boardy

coolhandluke wrote:

U may well be on to something all right,in my town the sports shop and a shoe shop have gone wallop in the last month.

I've seen a lot of empty retail spots in both Cork and Limerick recently and in prime city-centre areas. But are they empty because of market conditions (greedy landlords) or because they are moving to the suburbs? I have the feeling that the suburban mall competition is driving them out of business.

I think that we have a 'false economy' here in Ireland and it is only a matter of time before an external factor kicks in to bring us down to earth.

pork99

boardy wrote:

I think that we have a 'false economy' here in Ireland and it is only a matter of time before an external factor kicks in to bring us down to earth.

Yes indeed - "consumer spending (selling cars and handbags to one another)" could be restated as "consumer spending (selling expensive imports to one another)" As for property - it's a sort of "wealth sink" - you can't export buildings and the smart money among international property investors has deserted Ireland a few years ago.

jd, I'm sure there's other factors apart from benchmarking but the benchmarking fiasco which has put public sector salaries substantialy ahead of those in the private sector is still a major if not the major factor. Wasteful spending eg Luas, Port Tunnel, Health Service IT system of course makes a significant contribution.

I believe that what will be come apparent in a few years time is that the wealth consuming area of the economy; public services, property, consumer spending are sucking the life blood out of the wealth generating areas especially small to medium companies producing goods and services for export. Of course by then I fear it will be too late and we will be back in the economic sh!thouse we were in 20 years ago. I hope I am wrong btw.

Litcagral

Bond-007 wrote:

I want to know how do they select people for polling? In all my life I have never been approached for my opinions.

I'm getting rather fed up with being polled. It seems that every second telephone call is about what I read/listen to/watch/drink/voted for/intend to vote for/holiday/had for breakfast/last CD purchased etc.

It appears that if you cooperate with a marketing company's poll once, they seen to flag you and use you again. I find that lately I don't have the time (usually takes 10 to 20 minutes) and have been telling them so.

ButtermilkJack

jd wrote:

...Waste disposal has to be charged for-and the increase in charges is not due to benchmarking-it is because we can't just plough everything in to landfill forever...

I agree, but like everything else, we're told things need to change, and these changes cost money, so we pay this extra money and things just stay the same for years after. Where are all the 'alternative' waste disposal facilities we are being asked to fund with these extra charges?

pork99

I may be very wrong but I think I read that in 2003 the health services cost €11bn, €9bn of which was for salaries, in other words big fat benchmarked salaries. I think I saw it on the CSO site - I'll have to check.

parsi

And what are these people spending their salaries on (and where) ?

pork99

parsi wrote:

And what are these people spending their salaries on (and where) ?

And where do those salaries come from? (hint: taxpayer)

parsi

pork99 wrote:

And where do those salaries come from? (hint: taxpayer)

And how much of those salaries is paid back in tax ?

(with judicious questioning and finely written replies this line of enquiry could go on for ever..)

pork99

pork99 wrote:

I may be very wrong but I think I read that in 2003 the health services cost €11bn, €9bn of which was for salaries, in other words big fat benchmarked salaries. I think I saw it on the CSO site - I'll have to check.

Maybe closer to €6 or €7 bn out of €10,037,243,000 for 2005 - haven't tried to add it up - according to finance.gov.ie. However salaries do seem to be the largest spend in the health service.

I'm not picking on the health service, it just an example and I'm sure this is applicable in other depts. I don't begrudge people who provide valuable services like nurses, paramedics, firefighters and cops being well paid. But I know from a friend who works in a couple of hospitals that a lot of it goes on waste and bureaucractic deadwoood.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/speeches/estimates2006.pdf

pork99

parsi wrote:

And how much of those salaries is paid back in tax ?

(with judicious questioning and finely written replies this line of enquiry could go on for ever..)

Of course - we could be here until next xmas like that

But I fear that this governments approach to essential public spending spending on services and infrastructure means that the tax payer is frequently not getting value for money. The knock on effect is that prices go up, our competitiveness suffers and those areas of economic activity which create the wealth which pays for the public sector suffer.

masterK

I don't think people are that gullible when it comes to the current government, the problem is a lack of a viable alternative. It comes down to the lesser of two evils FF/PD or The Rainbows.