sweet dreams are made of these who are we to disagree travel the world and the seven

maquiladora

Yes, the models will keep changing with each run till we get to about tuesday/wednesday when we will see them start to become consistent, one way or the other. But its certainly looking interesting.

lucernarian

Danno wrote:

Evelyn Cusack seemed confident that the High Pressure will be sitting right over us by Friday. It does not look good at the moment, but I doubt there will be much change. I am writing it off. Even when February comes, the sun will be much higher and will melt any "chances" of snow.

Bring on the spring/summer thunderstorms.

I won't give up yet. If the HP should sit over us then at least we will have some pleasant winter weather... it's no blizzard but at least it could be dry. What's interesting is what that HP will do afterwards, should it stay over the british isles this weekend.

Things will become much clearer once Tuesday night has passed.

Supercell

Constant theme there, the cold is always in FI, couple of days ago it started on 27th ..now its 29th.

Until these spells start moving a bit closer than tbh FI is just that and might as well be ignored completely.

Been there done that..a rather peeved Longfield (am i ever going to see a proper dump of snow again in Dublin ???!!!)

Danno

Danno wrote:

Even when February comes, the sun will be much higher and will melt any "chances" of snow.

I wouldnt say that now.I remember some cracking good easterly snow here in the month of february-albeit a long time ago in '91

There was a lot of snow too in february of 1963 and the heaviest snow of 1947 was actually in early march.

That said my cut off point is mid february.
After that point, the synoptics have to be totally perfect to have a good event due to as you say the longer days , greater radiation from the sun etc.

As for Longfields snow event in Dublin.
I'd say probably in february if that jet stays south.

Lots of northerlies in FI too which will be good for wales when the polar lows dip down the Irish sea... mind you, ya could be lucky and get the equivalent of those october 2003 Dublin thunderstorms at some point.
They were from a northerly and disturbances drifting down the Irish sea that stayed in the west of the sea and hugged the coast.
That type of scenario would give you a heap of snow

No point hypothesising though-lets jsut keep an eye on it-everything is still posssible.

darkman2

Just to let you know JMA follows the GFS 12z Evolution. An Easterly would almost certainly follow so it remains to be seen over the next couple of days wether the ECM comes on board. Having said that the ensembles arnt too bad showing the average fall away toward the end of the week.

lucernarian

There was something interesting on the farming frecast today. Rainfall amounts are up to 150% above average along the west coast, while the east coast had 35% of average rainfall in January (so far?). I wonder why the difference is so marked??

The 1800 GFS chart is coming out over the next hour. Hopefully we will see something good to talk about. A northerly would be interesting as it takes less for it to deliver - easterlies have more potential but the conditions have to be fine-tuned for them to deliver the goods while a snow shower or two are nearly always likely for me if there is a northerly.

Supercell

To_be_confirmed wrote:

There was something interesting on the farming frecast today. Rainfall amounts are up to 150% above average along the west coast, while the east coast had 35% of average rainfall in January (so far?). I wonder why the difference is so marked??

G.W. ..this is exactly what happens, eventually the west will dry out too..then NI then Scotland.

Ok just an update for anyone reading who is just passing through.

The trend at the moment is the models are all over the place.
The last 8 or 10 runs in a row separated by 6 hours have offered completely different outcomes.

So basically if you are concerned about what the weather is going to be like in a week or 10 days or in 5 days,We cannot tell you with any degree of certainty what is going to happen.

All I can gather at the moment is that we are guaranteed cold , dry and settled probably for the next week but confidence drops after 5 days when it could either get very very cold and possibly snowy or more than likely continue dry and settled.
There is an equal likelyhood with similar low confidence though that it could get milder after 7 days(from today) with a return to wind and rain from the south west.

All publically available tools (and I suspect those that we cant see) are unable at the moment to agree a solution with reasonable certainty.

Ergo you wont get a confident forecast beyond 4 days at the moment untill it becomes clear where the area of high pressure that is currently determining our weather moves.
The models are putting it in a different place, chopping and changing it with every run at the moment and thats frankly useless for forecasting.

If you urgently need to know whats going to happen in the next week to two weeks-keep an eye on the TV forecasts for sure but ,I know theres a few people on here who are well able to keep a keen eye on developments too and we will post our thoughts as often as we think that theres a trend developing.

So keep Tuned here also.

SpitfireIV

The 18z is ehhh............interesting

Scubadevils

not looking good so?! I wonder are there forums in Moscow where they look for signs of warm weather in FI? :eek:

SpitfireIV

Silence.........no comments? :rolleyes:

Gordon

Very slight snow here in Greece, Athens. Mostly sleet though.

ninebeanrows

croppy lets just say the silence speaks volumes...

SpitfireIV

I think so WC, everyone down hearted?

Strasser

There's always hope when there's high pressure around, depends where it goes. It seems to me no one, esp. the models, can predict this with any accuracy at the moment.

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

Ok just an update for anyone reading who is just passing through.

The trend at the moment is the models are all over the place.
The last 8 or 10 runs in a row separated by 6 hours have offered completely different outcomes.

So basically if you are concerned about what the weather is going to be like in a week or 10 days or in 5 days,We cannot tell you with any degree of certainty what is going to happen.

All I can gather at the moment is that we are guaranteed cold , dry and settled probably for the next week but confidence drops after 5 days when it could either get very very cold and possibly snowy or more than likely continue dry and settled.
There is an equal likelyhood with similar low confidence though that it could get milder after 7 days(from today) with a return to wind and rain from the south west.

All publically available tools (and I suspect those that we cant see) are unable at the moment to agree a solution with reasonable certainty.

Ergo you wont get a confident forecast beyond 4 days at the moment untill it becomes clear where the area of high pressure that is currently determining our weather moves.
The models are putting it in a different place, chopping and changing it with every run at the moment and thats frankly useless for forecasting.

If you urgently need to know whats going to happen in the next week to two weeks-keep an eye on the TV forecasts for sure but ,I know theres a few people on here who are well able to keep a keen eye on developments too and we will post our thoughts as often as we think that theres a trend developing.

So keep Tuned here also.

The above remains valid for at least 10 days except confidence is raised as to the High pressure being around and governing our weatehr for at least 7 to 10 days.
Whats in FI after that looks uninspiring-certainly no Easterly but some cold zonality returns perhaps.

As for Gordon in Athens, Snow by the weekend is possible

Gonzo

judging by the forecasts on the tv anyway it looks like the cold weather isnt gonna make it as far as ireland at all now, temps of 5c to 8c for the weekend with sunny spells and frosty nights, the south-east of england is gonna get quite cold but still above 0c during the day even there no real snow risk. Metcheck have confirmed that the snowrisk is gone from the UK. If you want snow head to the mediteranean:)

Supercell

Tbh i'd prefer wind and rain over the likely overcast and dry muck thats probable for the next week or so.

maquiladora

Snow cancel

lucernarian

Longfield wrote:

Tbh i'd prefer wind and rain over the likely overcast and dry muck thats probable for the next week or so.

I wouldn't mind some more dry and settled weather at all. We all know that we will get our fair share of zonality sooner or later so you may as well enjoy the settled conditions while they last. It's not often that we have as dry a winter as this has been so far IMO.

Gonzo is right about snow for this week, the Mediterranean is the place to be this week, or at least the eastern end is. We still have 6 weeks of opportunities and sonething like last year could happen where there was a few let downs through January and February until we struck lucky. I suppose lucky isnt the right word to use when describing at most 2 inches of snow but anyway...

Supercell

Dunno about that, we havent had proper zonal in a VERY long time, a few weeks ago where had what could be described as a very very light version of zonal..but thats a stretch if you look at the rainfall figures (on the eastern side of the country).

Febuary is usually best for snow, in particular first two weeks , so all to play for there..after that..hmm roll on next winter

Mossy Monk

anyone like to hazzard a guess at what to expect in Glasgow Thursday onwards?

ninebeanrows

Mossy Monk wrote:

anyone like to hazzard a guess at what to expect in Glasgow Thursday onwards?

A whole lot of nothingness

Gordon

Well I'm very happy. It's snowing small flakes in a fair abundance in Athens here. The side bowl of Athens isn't fully covered and the streets are driveable so far (in central Athens). I hear that the North of Greece and even the north of Athens is much thicker with snow. They say here that this snow will last for a couple of days so hopefully we'll get enough to properly lie so that we don't have to go to work. The kindergartens are on holiday today because of the snow.

So, I'd like to thank you all for not putting up a fight, we all know fine well that weather doesn't come down to meteorological shifts and ehh... dry air and warm air moving about the place - it's all down to how much you want the weather in your area. Seeing as none of you argued that Ireland would get snow as opposed to Greece getting snow - you lost!

I've attached a picture of the morning snow.

All joking aside, I hope you guys manage to get some snow this year.

Gordon

Gordon wrote:

Well I'm very happy. It's snowing small flakes in a fair abundance in Athens here. The side bowl of Athens isn't fully covered and the streets are driveable so far (in central Athens). I hear that the North of Greece and even the north of Athens is much thicker with snow. They say here that this snow will last for a couple of days so hopefully we'll get enough to properly lie so that we don't have to go to work. The kindergartens are on holiday today because of the snow.

So, I'd like to thank you all for not putting up a fight, we all know fine well that weather doesn't come down to meteorological shifts and ehh... dry air and warm air moving about the place - it's all down to how much you want the weather in your area. Seeing as none of you argued that Ireland would get snow as opposed to Greece getting snow - you lost!

I've attached a picture of the morning snow.

All joking aside, I hope you guys manage to get some snow this year.

LoL

heres a webcam from athens up at about 1000ft in the north of the city.
It looks a lot thicker there but central Athens is likely to get a lot more i think.

This is the cold air we were supposed to get

Bastids!

http://nifada.com/webcam/webcam.htm

Duiske

12z looks a little more interesting with high a bit further north. Not sure, but possibilty of a few (snow ?) showers getting into South/South-east ?

Very very unlikely
Pressures too high and the airflow is too slack and not cold enough to create the showers in my opinion.

Mossy Monk

Weathercheck wrote:

A whole lot of nothingness

super

no snow makes me happy

Isnt it hard to believe that this greek island is covered in snow showers at the moment in a temp of -1c and that Thesalonniki , Greece's 2nd city is -4c and snowing... and that crete airport is expecting sleet and snow tonight...

Thats what moscows -40c air is capabale of when it rolls into town.

Ah well theres always next winter.

Supercell

In the suprising twist, the 12z ensembles are not bad for a short sharpish blast.

May even be some snow showers on the 28th ..wouldnt count any chickens yet though.