sweet dreams are made of these who are we to disagree travel the world and the seven

Nothing is set in stone as regards snow.
I wouldnt like to say whats going to happen from next wenesday onwards.
Theres no trend towards an Easterly , simply because its well beyond a reliable timeframe.

I've warned people before and it seems they never listen and rather retreat to fantasy.

All I've heard since Xmas is rubbish about trends towards an Easterly.
Complete Rubbish.
A house built on pillars of sand from FI model runs.
If an Easterly comes it will come but it wont be anything to do with a chart 2 weeks ahead or whatever.

What would be good though is a nice cold plunge from the North and then a slight NE drift to the wind.
It would make the difference between snow showers heading into Wales and cornwall as they would from the Irish sea in a straight northerly and belting along the East coast as they would if a cold enough northerly veered slightly NEasterly.

Lets stick to the facts as opposed to the Fantasy

Looking at Net weathers 0 degree isotherm analysis which tbh is dodgy enough this far out, they dont see Ireland getting close to snow except for maybe overnight tuesday and wenesday on high ground.

With Low pressure around, there should be a nice sup of rain for most of us though.

This is a fairly average but Dry mid winter period we have gone through so far.
Theres always the possibility of a polar low of course that would be exciting-but those cannot usually be spotted untill maybe 36 to 48 hrs out at a big stretch.
So eyes wide open and something might surprise us-but Ramp territory this is not at the moment (unless you are a wet weather lover)

darkman2

I think its certain now we are heading into a much colder period of weather. This will begin with a Northerly becoming established on Tuesday night. A few showers are likely, mostly of hail or sleet and mainly confined to coastal counties of the west and north. Wednesday will see more widespread showers of hail or possibly sleet (any snow confined to the highest ground), however parts of the south and east should stay dry throughout the day.

From Thursday onwards it looks set to turn even colder with severe night time frosts but essentially dry at first. And just a hint of an Artic high developing on most models:D

Supercell

Dry...followed by more dry...bring on Summer.

Gonzo

sounds like rubbish, no snow, theres nothing to see here move along...

SpitfireIV

Oh ye of little faith . The snow will come, sooner or later, dont worry

LFCFan

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Oh ye of little faith . The snow will come, sooner or later, dont worry

I go for later, i.e. sometime around the middle of January 2026

Gonzo

im going for January 2052... we shud see a few flakes of snow around then:D

SpitfireIV

Pictures taken the 9th of March 2002 in Mullingar, its never too late. Keep the dream alive ......:) ......:( .........


Anyway, someone talk, whats happening as regards cold/snow/severe winter weather?? Anything on the cards?

CroppyBoy1798

lucernarian

Could be a few wintry showers in northern parts tomorrow and mabye Thursday. I'm not expecting even a snow shower.

probability of snow from this northerly for anyone below 2500ft in Ireland is slim to none.

As for winter,its búggered off to Eastern Europe... Moscow area and the like, who are still at -22c

As for us,well the near continent has warmed up so it would take one hell of a prolonged easterly to get us cold enough for significant snow now and theres not a peep of that happening.

We are almost gone beyond the timeframe for a decent freeze now as any that comes will just be a sloppy mess from march onwards.

There have been decent freezes in march historically but only because they were topping up cold and snow that was already here eg 1947
Any other decent snow event was really a hill event with slop on the low ground and shur what use is that??

As for the northerly-well, this one delivered didly squat and in my life time thats all they ever did south of Ulster( un less you call and inch or 3 for a day or two a cold spell-I dont)

Gonzo

what a bloody dissapointing winter this has been yet again, even more so than other winters i think, we had an inch of snow for a few hours in November and that was it, last year was crap too but at least we had northerly plunges every few weeks giving us hope throughout the winter right up to March but this year has been so unbelieveably boring, , no real treats, nothing at all not even a storm of any kind.All im hoping for now is a decent warm, dry & hopefully sunny summer - ive got no wishings for winter 2006/2007 because its prolly gonna be no better than this one just like all our other dissapointing winters since 1992.

ninebeanrows

I give up hope for lying snow on March 10th

All my decent snowfall have occured during the second half of Febuary..

Give the winter its last 30 days and then we can look back on comment:)

Danno

Anything showing up in the charts then?

ninebeanrows

A change in the weathe patterns is underway.

A zonal flow will blast through and last for days.

This will bring milder condtions for the first few days untila around Tuesday
but with the flow blasting all the way from southern Greenland coolder air
will get mixed up and spread east. Cool days will follow with Blustery wintry
showers for a number of day with very high winds and stormy conditions
possible.

An exciting outlook if not a very snowy one but mountains above 500m
from Tuesday on look like they could be in for quite abit of the white stuff;)

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

A change in the weathe patterns is underway.

A zonal flow will blast through and last for days.

This will bring milder condtions for the first few days untila around Tuesday
but with the flow blasting all the way from southern Greenland coolder air
will get mixed up and spread east. Cool days will follow with Blustery wintry
showers for a number of day with very high winds and stormy conditions
possible.

An exciting outlook if not a very snowy one but mountains above 500m
from Tuesday on look like they could be in for quite abit of the white stuff;)

Hi WC, been watching the developments with great interest. The ECM 168 would send a shudder down any cold-haters spine. There is further upgrade here I think:



The plunge into the Atlantic is quite something. Supprisingly the GFS is not really going with it at the moment.

ninebeanrows

Temperature wise those charts are very misleading but nonetheless yes
the outlook is at least very exciting!:D

This chart from the 12z is especially exciting



Severe winds, Heavy Precipitation, Temperatures of 0-4c across Ireland..

Lots and lots of weather and snow above 300m's;)

darkman2

Aye imagine this:http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/132_30.gif

I really do think the ECM is the better model and the GFS is playing this down:) Watch this space.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

and snow above 300m's;)

net weather reckon above 1000 metres in Ireland.
So that would mean the top of lugnaquilla.
I wouldnt recommend going up there in wind and snow.

However ,I will risk croghan mt beside me-thats 2000ft and might see some sleet or snow too.
10 minutes drive away.

I might upgrade expectations when those charts are showing up in a more reliable t+96

darkman2

I reckon its Friday night that needs to be watched. The models suggest plenty of precip, good strong winds and temps hovering just above or at 0 in many places.:)

:eek:



Looks good to me:D

lucernarian

darkman2 wrote:

Aye imagine this:http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/132_30.gif

I like the purple over the northeast of Ireland:D

That probably won't happen but I'd hate to be atop of Slieve Donard in that! The winds do not seem to be severe as of yet though gale warnings will only become apparent sooner I suppose.

Wednesday seems to be the day this party is started though the models had it at one stage appearing on Sunday (tomorrow that is).

The jet stream is poised to take a dive to the south after this LP quasi-block so colder weather could follow all this. It's a straw to grasp and add to our unfortunately dwindling collection.

ninebeanrows

I'll tell you its going to be an exciting week of weather and thank god for
that! I hate to break it to you..... but im on mid-term:eek:

Lots of wind, rain, snow and low pressure to come.

I wouldnt discount some nightime falls of snow from Thursday, Friday..

And winds will gust to 70mph in many areas throughtout the week as low
pressure takes charge pressure down to 960mb in the north.

Im watching this feature here with particular attention



Going to be extremely windy in the west and throught the Island if that
comes off;)

lucernarian

The BBC Countryfile forecast had snow falling over western Ireland on Friday. This week will be atrocious for weather for anyone who is stuck out in it. I still think snow is an outside chance at low levels but the mountains...:eek:.

FI in the 06Z chart shows 850 hPa temps approaching -10 in Dublin but is only half-backed up by one run. Things are very uncertain after next weekend. Another run approaches +10 for example.

darkman2

AYE dont know if I could stomach trying to crack this nut again:

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

The BBC Countryfile forecast had snow falling over western Ireland on Friday.

That was definitely an over active computer generation.You dont get snow at plus seven celcius.It's one of the faults really of the new BBC graphics.

This week will be atrocious for weather for anyone who is stuck out in it. I still think snow is an outside chance at low levels but the mountains...:eek:.

Zero chance at low levels I'd say, but really next weekend is outside any high confidence time frame.

FI in the 06Z chart shows 850 hPa temps approaching -10 in Dublin but is only half-backed up by one run. Things are very uncertain after next weekend. Another run approaches +10 for example.

Have you not learned at this stage to take FI with several cups of Salt?

FFS it's like telling the weather via Dot Cottons Tea leaves

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

Have you not learned at this stage to take FI with several cups of Salt?

FFS it's like telling the weather via Dot Cottons Tea leaves

Lol, I'm only saying what is in the charts. I've no opinion on them because I've no more idea than the models have (none) on what will happen post-the LP system during the week ahead.

And I hate saying "zero chance" because it's the weather, stranger things have happened and it's 5 days away so nothing is certain:) .

darkman2

A good trend emeges from the 12z. It has the secondary low further north but at this range that will change.:)

ninebeanrows

Yea and this week to rule out snow to even low levels would be very unwise.

Its gonna be very cool from Wednesday with nightime temperatueres of
0-3c and days of 3-7c with loads of precipitation and wind and low pressure.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Yea and this week to rule out snow to even low levels would be very unwise.

Well I'll rule it out at low levels to friday.
I dont deny that you could have bits of hail sleet or even wet snow in the down draft of a heavy shower.

Its gonna be very cool from Wednesday with nightime temperatueres of
0-3c and days of 3-7c with loads of precipitation and wind and low pressure.

I think it will be nearer to 7c in the daytime than 3c for most if not all of this week to Friday and with dew points above zero,banking on snow at sea level other than the down draft of a heavy shower is a sweet dream, and thats all.

After that,its anybodies guess.
Theres a lot of if's,if's and more if's in the FI that people are talking about.
Mind you if I was steve murr or someone similar,I'd probably find snow in the synoptics for sydney Australia if ,if if,...

Lets wait and see, otherwise guys, you are setting yerselves up for another fall again.

Danno

I remember a few years ago when Kerry woke up to a surprise snowfall on a Sunday morning with charts that are similar to this weeks...

Who knows?

I for one am welcoming back the ol NWly wind, the only wind that seems to have delivered more than once in the last 10 years...

Actually (with low confidence) it could be a south westerly that brings some a fall of snow in the near term-full of polar maratime air-like the southwesterly that gave Cork and Kerry some 6 inches around Xmas a few years ago.
It arose from a northerly shot down the mid atlantic that curled and moved northwestwards in over Ireland.

Effectively it gave heavy lake effect snow showers to the southwest for a couple of days and parts of the west-a rare scenario
Though rare it arose from exactly similar athmospheric conditions as what gives the east showers in an Easterly-However the Atlantic has infinitely more fetch than the Irish sea, so it was indeed an impressive event.
4 to 6 inches is a decent fall of snow

1 to 2 inches is nothing but a wet mess once the sun gets to work on it.