Lucinda Creighton - FG General Election Candidate Dublin South East

sceptre

Fun and all as it is when every second thread diverts into a discussion on Sinn Fein and in this case whether Teresa Ferris is going for the corner of society that tries to vote and masturbate at the same time, any chance this one could veer back from where it's going or stop entirely? Either would do. There's an existing thread over on After Hours if you want to discuss short skirts on politicians on the telly.

cousin_borat

sceptre wrote:

any chance this one could veer back from where it's going or stop entirely?QUOTE]
enough already, no mé féin talk here! I will watch the clip of her when it's posted on the Late Late show archives out of curiosity

ISAW

sceptre wrote:

... Teresa Ferris i... any chance this one could veer back from where it's going or stop entirely?...

Finbar saunders strikes again! Finnar finnar

As Angry banana says it is reasonable to assume FG will DOUBLE their vote. I really dont think it is! It is reasonable to assume that FG will get a seat but not that they will get a quota on the first count. ) Only FF was capable of that last time out and only then if they ran ONE candidate. They ran two and got 5318 and 3499 for a quota of 6487. Gormley got 5264 FG (3337 and 1837). Mind you that is 5000 votes . I take it back it IS reasonable for FG to up that to 6500 and secure a certain seat.

So assuming FG gets the sdeat then Gormley Quinn or Mc Dowell will loste their seat. I think quinn will probably lose it but Mc dowell could. so over all it is either at best a gain of one seat for the opposition or just a seat trade from Lab to FG. For FF to lose the seat they would have to drop from 8800 to about 4000 votes. I just cant see that happening.

Snickers Man

ISAW wrote:

For FF to lose the seat they would have to drop from 8800 to about 4000 votes. I just cant see that happening.

Yes but you're comparing Eoghan Ryan who is a respectable decent sort, the acceptable face of Fianna Fail effectively who gets a wide spectrum of support to a blow-in who is the third-generation of a Fianna Fail dynasty, none of whom ever covered themselves in glory.

I could see it happening quite easily.

FX Meister

FG have registered people who don't live in that particular constituency and that's a fact. But I'm sure most of the parties do that. Sure Sinn Fein still send people in to vote pretending to be someone else. Pascal Donohue, running in the last local elections registered himself twice. As for Lucinda Creighton I don't have much time for her at all. Comes across as arrogant and sly. I read about her recently that she says dating party colleagues a definite no no. That's obviously a new rule in her book as I saw her kissing one of the FG HQ staff in Renards a year or so ago, one in his 40 somethings.

ISAW

Snickers Man wrote:

Yes but you're comparing Eoghan Ryan who is a respectable decent sort, the acceptable face of Fianna Fail effectively who gets a wide spectrum of support to a blow-in who is the third-generation of a Fianna Fail dynasty, none of whom ever covered themselves in glory.

I could see it happening quite easily.

AFAIK Chris Andrews in on dublin city council since the election before last (which is one term longer than Lucinda Creighton and she hasnt even finished her term but I would not call her a "blow in")

Eoin Ryan got about 5300 votes last time. I guess about half were FF. Chris andrews about 3500. The quota was 6500. Now Ryan may well canvass for Andrews but assuming half the votes are party and assuming FF ran A N Other Blow in who nobody had ever heard of they would probably get 2650 + 1750 = 4400 votes. Thats close to getting a seat running a nonentity in the weakest constituency in the counrty for FF.

Now Chris Andrews already had a base of 3500 last time. If he got even half of Ryans votes he would move that up to 6100 and toip the poll. the question is however who else will FF run? If they run a donkey then Andrews has a certain seat. If they run a strong candidate then FF will get even more votes and one of the two will take the seat. It is almost impossible for FF to take two seats. They would have to double their vote since last time. But FF losing the single seat is almost as unlikely.

billy the squid

constitutionus wrote:

he said dublin south inner city didnt he i think thats marino and ringsend (though open to correction,my inner city geography's crap )

Always thought marino was dublin north Central, bertie territory. It s up near drumcondra way is it not? D9 D3 area.

Nuttzz

Marino is Dublin NC, which is not bertie territory, but Calley & Haughey's. Bertie is next door in dublin central

ISAW

Angry Banana wrote:

Quite reasonable. The last general election was a total disaster for FG - particularly in Dubiln. It was the worst result ever, and maybe I'm biased, but I don't use that as a great marker.

If you take the locals (in which bright young Lucie ran), FG roared home in DSE:
Pembroke (Creighton's ward): 29.67%, highest party vote.
Rathmines: 21.46%
South East: 9.42%

Yep South East is a crap result, but certainly from the above a suggestion of a 20% polling is reasonable, given that FG have performed better/gotten better publicity in the last couple of years than in the last eight combined.

Cousin Borat thinks FG can win TWO seats in DSE! You seem to think FF can lose their one seat!

Looking at the above wards and you comment that "FG romped home" and considering that FF had the worst results in years we get:
Pembroke (Creighton's ward): 29.67%, (highest party vote).2800 FF got 19.55 % 1850 votes
Rathmines: 21.46% (2350 votes) FF got 20.78%(2300 votes)
South East: 9.42% (750 votes) FF got 20.98 (1700 votes)

Thats 5900 FG and 5850 FF. Literally the same.

It is complete and utter nonsence to suggest based on this that FG will win a seat from FF in the general election. and if you maintain that FG can win a seat then FF must retain their seat! The only possible losers will therefore be Lab PD or GP.