Oh Lords of Kobol - please let it snow

SpitfireIV · 16-02-2006 7:31pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Who wants some coolish average days! when we are at the stage where mild sunny warm days are possible. Who wants cool days 5-8c with some light
cold rain showers for like 3-4 days. Come off it..

Spring is coming lets just forget about winter for another year..

It has been abysmal to say the least:mad:

SPRING SPRING SPRING:cool:

I'm afraid its not a case of what we want WC, but what we get and it this stage it looks like it could be anything.

CroppyBoy1798

darkman2 · 16-02-2006 8:13pm

Bad news, the ECM has come up with a terrible run. Id imagine its a mild outlier but I doubt we will have access to the ensembles. JMA and UKMO are very good runs tonight:)

16-02-2006 8:24pm

darkman2 wrote:

Bad news, the ECM has come up with a terrible run. Id imagine its a mild outlier but I doubt we will have access to the ensembles. JMA and UKMO are very good runs tonight:)

well I did say...

Earthman wrote:

This is bound to change as its FI but if it doesnt, it's going to be a very very interesting week ahead.

Scubadevils · 16-02-2006 8:27pm

Is it, as always, going pear shaped before it ever became a peach :rolleyes:

At this stage I really will believe when its actually snowing, there have been far too many let downs this winter. Every time its been "really is looking good this time (7 days out), downgrading a bit but still potential (5 days), looks like it might just be chilly with some frost (2 days)...actual, as per 2 days

16-02-2006 8:35pm

ECM looks fine to me,now that I've seen it..
Darkman2 has his wires crossed

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006021612!!/

copy and paste that into your address bar

darkman2 · 16-02-2006 8:45pm

Earthman wrote:

ECM looks fine to me,now that I've seen it..
Darkman2 has his wires crossed

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind 850 and mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006021612!!/

copy and paste that into your address bar

The ECM is anything but fine EM. It developes the high to far east and allows a depression in the Atlantic come too close for comfort. The source there is not good really at all. No GH influence. We need a Greenland high. As I said though, probrably on the milder side of the ensembles.

16-02-2006 8:51pm

Ach
That air source is ENE.
Look closely again at it bearing in mind that...
ECM diagram artistry when it comes to definition was never great.

The air you are worried about dives down into France whereas our feed though slacker is not sourced in southern Europe its sourced in NW Russia-provided the set up remains the same.

lucernarian · 16-02-2006 9:16pm

I was away for a couple of days and this is what I come back to:eek:

Fun times are ahead but I dislike the confidence shown in the models and also the temps predicted aren't anything to go outside jumping about for joy (in artic clothing of course:D).

darkman2 · 16-02-2006 10:13pm

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I was away for a couple of days and this is what I come back to:eek:

Fun times are ahead but I dislike the confidence shown in the models and also the temps predicted aren't anything to go outside jumping about for joy (in artic clothing of course:D).

Lots of runs to go yet:)

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2006 12:05am

ok ok but remember it can go pear-shaped in minutes.. 1 run can scupper
it all you wait for the ensembles for comfort and bang its gone......

You cant be displacent.. dont let your guard down... honestly
you really have to be strong..

Its looking great but be prepared at any minute for a huge huge let-down.

Dont expect anything more than a few wintry showers and perhaps a dusting
of snow from this that melts during the day, because even if the synoptics
do occur that is what you'll probly get..

Years of winter watching and snow watch have made me a bitter man!

I hope that changes come March but i dont think it will..

Lets hope we'll see a few inches of snow lying on the ground for the
first time in years.. here's hoping:cool:

Danno · 17-02-2006 12:48am

Hmmm, yet again - it snows in the last week of February! I have seen this EVERY year.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2006 12:53am

i told ya i told ya.. i sed sumtin remotely optimistic and bang whoosh its gone!!:mad: :mad: :mad:

Flippin typical awful ensembles my first forecast was right 3 days of 5-8c
maxima some sleety rain..

Fup this truly bring on spring:rolleyes: :mad: :mad: :mad:

17-02-2006 10:49am

Oh I wouldnt dispair (yet) WC.
Whatever we get will have little to do with what we type here

All we are doing is commenting on the output.
I havent the time to look at this mornings as it comes out,but I'll look later.

Anyhow heres something I posted in another place (:D) this morning which I think is an interesting observation based on the 00z.

EARTHMAN wrote:

Just following on from what I think artic bob posted in the last thread regarding European snow cover affecting the surface air source.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rz500m7.gif

At first glance that chart doesnt look as good as what it shows as the source goes all the way back down through Turkey towards the Med.
Normally that should eventually mean a mild Easterly.

But But (and this is where you have got the disappointing track of the previous bout of cold moscow air into Athens to thank)

All of that track is under snow cover and some of it quite deep snow cover,which means cold surface air temps-see here and compare it with the track of the wind source http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowAFnh.gif

That may not be the case at the very start of the feed eventually but a suffecient snow track there I think to make warm modification of this source difficult.
Thats good folks.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2006 11:26am

Is this the spectacular event darkman was talking about yesterday?

I realise how hard it is not to get sucked in but you must remember that
it is destined for failure like every weather event. The GFS handling of
the situation is awful or even abysmal and same with pretty much all
models, looking past 96hrs when forecasting is ridiculus especially
when our country can be affectedted by very slight changes in synoptic.

I know it sounds ridiculus but for me without total and absolute total
Ensembles agreement i dont place the synoptic predicted as
the likely outcome.

Now my forecast from yesterday or the day before will proved to be correct
3-4 days with temps of 4-8c with some light sleet/rain showers and
some night frosts.:) See being realistic is the way to go or else your
just looking for a major disappointment time and time again..

Winter will be truely over after this and so maybe this is a lesson for
next winter:)

17-02-2006 11:34am

LoL

That run is an outlier at the other side of the ensemble just like the last one was at the opposite end.

But if its not,I'd agree with you.

One point to add regarding my last point,that snow cover over Europe was not there this time last year so the previous runs are what you need.

darkman2 · 17-02-2006 4:20pm

Excellent charts. Snow is becoming more likely. Its the Greenland high we have to keep an eye on. Once its there we cant go wrong:D

UKMO latest:

Cold weather set to return

17 February 2006

The mild weather the UK has been experiencing over recent days looks set to end.

Latest Met Office forecasts indicate that much colder conditions are expected to return to most parts of the country from the north-east. Eastern areas of the UK are likely to see the coldest conditions, with wintry showers at times, but all areas will experience overnight frosts.

Keith Groves, Head of Forecasting at the Met Office said: "Recently we have seen daytime temperatures in double figures, but in a few days time some places will be struggling to get above 2 or 3 °C. Brisk winds from the north-east will make it feel even colder. Eastern areas are also likely to see a covering of snow, especially over higher ground."

At this stage it seems likely that the colder weather will continue until the end of the month. Latest forecasts are always available via national and regional TV and radio as well as the web. The public are advised to check weather and travel conditions, especially when planning journeys during times of severe weather.

I reckon even this is conservative.

17-02-2006 4:37pm

Regarding over there but pertinent to here

Nice press release

17-02-2006 4:41pm

darkman2 wrote:

I reckon even this is conservative.

Oh I'd say so.

Now a challenge for you -put up the charts from this time last year and compare them with these.

I suspect that theres more cold available and that the HP is in a better position-but I dont have the time today to look.
I know I got a nice (but measly) 2 inch covering this time last year.I'd be expecting at least that again this year - Regardless 2000ft ASL is only 4 miles from me, so I'll head up there in the 4wd and with the camera as I reckon conditions there by mid week next week could be very exciting.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2006 5:37pm

im really disappointed that you and earthman have gotten sucked in once
again to yet anothe rmassive disappointment, i saw it coming ages ago
it was always going to happen even at this stage.

Im very glad i didnt get sucked into this and its payed of well.

The 6z put a dampener on things and the 12z is nothing short
of a disaster high pressure anchored on top of us...

Supercell · 17-02-2006 6:02pm

Snow in England, some sleety stuff here apart from well inland and at elavation, if anything settles in Dublin its will be for a couple of hours and will certainly be gone by the afternoon..too late in the season for us here, still would be nice to see some snow this year!!

17-02-2006 8:04pm

Weathercheck wrote:

im really disappointed that you and earthman have gotten sucked in once
again to yet anothe rmassive disappointment, i saw it coming ages ago
it was always going to happen even at this stage.

I'm not being sucked in at all.I'm just commenting on the output.
I wont expect snow untill I see it, but a repeat of last year should equal last year.I do understand that you got nada from that.

Im very glad i didnt get sucked into this and its payed of well.

Thats not the impression I got from your post on UKWW

The 6z put a dampener on things and the 12z is nothing short
of a disaster high pressure anchored on top of us...

Well if thats not being sucked in,I dont know what is.
You take every run as Gospel do ya?

I'm actually still under the impression that you are afraid to ramp here(I dont think you should as I'm realistic to know that next tuesday wenesday and thursday is still fantasy island-I hope you havent forgotten)
Afraid to ramp in case you jinx your snow.
Well relax,Read and comment on the charts for the weather that they predict.
I can guarantee you anything you write here will have no impact on the inevitable weather we have next week regardless of whatever it is.

ninebeanrows · 17-02-2006 8:42pm

Earthman wrote:

I'm not being sucked in at all.I'm just commenting on the output.
I wont expect snow untill I see it, but a repeat of last year should equal last year.I do understand that you got nada from that.
Thats not the impression I got from your post on UKWW

Well if thats not being sucked in,I dont know what is.
You take every run as Gospel do ya?

I'm actually still under the impression that you are afraid to ramp here(I dont think you should as I'm realistic to know that next tuesday wenesday and thursday is still fantasy island-I hope you havent forgotten)
Afraid to ramp in case you jinx your snow.
Well relax,Read and comment on the charts for the weather that they predict.
I can guarantee you anything you write here will have no impact on the inevitable weather we have next week regardless of whatever it is.

Sorry for saying you were sucked in!

And i am afraid to post everytime i have ever posted here the synoptic
just doesnt arrive. I predict snow, it doesnt arrive. I've become sceptical
and bitter..

But i wont if this projected spell of colder weather materlises..

The 12z GFS was an outlier throughout with most other ENS's going
for a colder outlook:)

darkman2 · 17-02-2006 8:50pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Sorry for saying you were sucked in!

And i am afraid to post everytime i have ever posted here the synoptic
just doesnt arrive. I predict snow, it doesnt arrive. I've become sceptical
and bitter..

But i wont if this projected spell of colder weather materlises..

The 12z GFS was an outlier throughout with most other ENS's going
for a colder outlook:)

Weatherceheck have you seen the latest ECM? Higher pressure but look at the source. The cold pool has gotten colder as, I expected the Isotherm was too warm. The ensembles are going for sub -7 to -8 temps for Dublin. Greenland high is still a great possiblity. JMA is brilliant at 168. UKMO is nothing short of amazing and is a long term setup. Once again the source is pushed back enabling the colder flow. Lows in the Atlantic going up past Greenland. It does not get any better this time of year.

Im not saying it WILL happen, like Earthman im commenting on what I see. And what I see is great on the eyes:)

Sorry were actually looking at below -8! Heres the real ensembles. (Antrim) Dublin not available on NW. http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;sess=

17-02-2006 9:38pm

Thats west wales too

All over the place but cold,very cold members are in the majority most days

Takeshi_Kovacs · 17-02-2006 10:20pm

Well we got snow down here in Kerry yesterday... that is, above 600 m on Baurtregaum mountain.. Also there was some very heavy rain/hailstone falls at around 1.30 pm in Dingle of all places!!

lucernarian · 17-02-2006 10:37pm

I have to say I was excited this morning - I never saw a Greenland High appearing on the charts within a week before. It's early days yet and I agree with WC's pragmatic approach. I don't want to be responsible for jinxing this.

Everything seems to be hinging on how the Azores High Ridges over us. It could simply form a HP cell over us and we would have similar weather to January. Or if it forms further north and pressure builds in Greenland then we have a pretty cold spell on our hands.

(IMO of course) I think it's likely at this stage for cooler temps setting in by next weekend. We need pressure further north.

I think Ger Fleming was on Met Éireann at 2125 and he was going for colder weather and said it it would be much colder after next weekend.

17-02-2006 10:46pm

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I think Ger Fleming was on Met Éireann at 2125 and he was going for colder weather and said it it would be much colder after next weekend.

He did.
I didnt like his chart for tuesday- a crazy sausage looking high stretching too far south

18-02-2006 10:21am

Well theres certainly a roaring Easterly in the 00z GFS

Pressure is high though so showers will be light and coastal for the first few days if any-but the important thing,I reckon is the predicted extent of the Easterly incursion being more than a week, so plenty of time for the air mass over us to go very cold and plenty of time with dropping pressure for more instability to be introduced later in the week.

Though FI, the end of next week see's the roaring Easterly continue with pressure dropping which is better for showers.
Theres all sorts of indications for troughs after that...

Positives-Greenland high and us on the cold side of zonal
- source of that wind and the strenght of it, whilst not as cold as it would have been a month ago, its over snowfields mostly and probably further west too given the low pressure over Europe.

Negatives-Ach I need breakfast...

* Note this is a comment on this mornings output and the likely outcome were it to happen that way, its not a prediction of what actually will happen.

It's very interesting though-It's essential that dewpoints go very sub zero though (say -2 or -3c or more) which with an Easterly feed like that would help any precipitation in temps of 3 or 4 c to fall as snow.
Based on this morning it might actually be colder than that, certainly on high ground, well inland and maybe even on the coast

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2006 11:55am

I cant help but:D

ninebeanrows · 18-02-2006 12:27pm

Ensembles are not the best

Especially in the long-term but that can easily change

Decent agreement for a 4 day cold spell.. come on at least its something:rolleyes:

Oh Lords of Kobol - please let it snow

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