Oh Lords of Kobol - please let it snow

Supercell

Feb 23rd last year .. http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2005/brack/bracka20050223.gif

To be honest this was better and still didnt give huge snow amounts, it looks good but lets be calm

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Feb 23rd last year .. http://www.wetterzentraleforum.de/archive/2005/brack/bracka20050223.gif

To be honest this was better and still didnt give huge snow amounts, it looks good but lets be calm

That fax from last year wasnt as good as the current batch of runs if they come off.
It's feed was from a warm Europe.

The feed being suggested lately is from a snow covered Europe.
Not as cold as a month ago but it seems to want to pull stuff from really cold sources this time around and it seems to want to be around long enough to get here.

Lets see what happens and in the meantime, though its getting to be an over used cliché - enjoy these cold runs while they last

Supercell

View from my front door Feb 23rd 2005 ..



View from my front door Feb 23rd 2006??? .. no green in sight!! (i hope!!)..

Danno

Is Evelyn on tomorrow at 1pm?

lucernarian

I wonder if the Louth man is on tomorrow??:) (The Eagle)

Gerry (cant think of 2nd name) was on at 1830 and went for a very cold and dry few days ahead. He didn't show the charts for Thursday:p

Supercell

Lad's I'm feeling anticipation in the air..am I wrong ?!!

Gonzo

im gonna remain very calm, how many times in the past 2 years have we got so excited only to be completely let down a day beforehand but christ if it works out I wont be able to contain myself one little bit. Im so pissed off with the lack of now at this rate I would be well happy with 3 inchs.

darkman2

Gonzo wrote:

im gonna remain very calm, how many times in the past 2 years have we got so excited only to be completely let down a day beforehand but christ if it works out I wont be able to contain myself one little bit. Im so pissed off with the lack of now at this rate I would be well happy with 3 inchs.

And you should be calm. ECM makes for sober reading and there is no room for complacency.

Supercell

3 Inches of lying snow and I'll do the can can in Rathgar Village (as I take copious snaps of this very rare event!), in fact i'll dance everywhere in delight!! bring it ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!

Danno

Gonzo wrote:

...at this rate I would be well happy with 3 inchs.

Don't EVER say that outside this forum!!!

Hal1

Danno wrote:

Is Evelyn on tomorrow at 1pm?

Shes a hottie ;D

darkman2

Its comin I tells ya http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/uk_summary_06022212.jpg

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/charts/uk/uk_summary_06022312.jpg(Thursday)

lucernarian

Darkman2, all I saw there were a few snow showers forecast. Nothing is guaranteed yet. Most of the snow possible out of this relies on a LP that moves east to west and hits us in just the right place. If that LP is there on Monday morning, I'll get pretty excited. Otherwise I'll expect no more than 2 inches, much like last year.

Interestingly, BBC have heavy snow showers with sunny intervals progged for Drogheda on Wednesday. Nothing for Dublin.

Edit: The 102 hr chart has no LP development near Denmark. The LP development started at 108 hrs on the previous run so this is not a good start.

lucernarian

After looking at the worthwile part of the run, it seems that everything else seems slightly better. The atlantic is much less active, the GH is slightly better and we still have a kink as opposed to a fully fledged LP so things still look good.

The 850 hPa temps are especially good for us, with -10 air over one part of Ireland or another for at least 2 days basically. We would be nearly as cold as Britain on Wed/Thurs.

Overall I feel consistency is excellent with the models so far. I don't think there has really been a u-turn yet. We must be on our guard until Monday at least.

I notice that GFS goes for a mild interlude as we head towards FI. What I'm concerned about would be that we may not see the very cold air that follows. I'm watching the LP to the north of Scandanavia with interest.

But we have a week to look forward to before then:)

Supercell

FI is what we are looking at, its always a blizzard there, a GH is for Ireland the Big One..sensible hat's on lads...

Daytime 4-6C with 0-2C in showers is not a artic spell, this happened last year, admittedly it was more mild in Europe then but its end of Feb, maybe the snow this time will make it to the coast !!

SpitfireIV

Theres gonna be so much snow that even the 'snowrisk' thingy on MetCheck is broken! :v: :v:

Danno

Looks good for Thursday! 2c and snow showers.

This is what should be Dublin Bay, Thursday Evening at Sundown:




I can see WC out there!

lucernarian

The feckin LP is back!!! Have a look at t+120 hrs for a cheering sight:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

If the fax charts have it, things become very interesting indeed;)


and ensembles have 2 runs now backing greater than 5 mm of precipitation on Thursday night. The average 850 hPa temp for the event is -7. It's a close thing but if dewpoints and temperatures hold, this should be snow. It would be heavy sleet at the least.

Well the Eagle wasnt very inspiring this morning on Radio one...

"Getting colder and I should imagine temperatures wont get above 6 or 7 c at all this week in a NE wind turning Easterly later in the week-overall dry with a few coastal showers in the East"

Or words to that effect...

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

The feckin LP is back!!! Have a look at t+120 hrs for a cheering sight:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png

If the fax charts have it, things become very interesting indeed;)


and ensembles have 2 runs now backing greater than 5 mm of precipitation on Thursday night. The average 850 hPa temp for the event is -7. It's a close thing but if dewpoints and temperatures hold, this should be snow. It would be heavy sleet at the least.

Looking at the 850's for the UK and Ireland on Net weather , they are bad, very bad for thursday into friday
only -5 in your area down to Dublin( FI this so they may be better in later runs or worse)

That means rain more than likely,though you have some height so you may be lucky.
That drops to -9 over night so even if it starts as rain it will turn to snow.
Dublin and south of you are marginal rain/sleet events according to the 00z gfs 850's as the bast they do is -7 at the start.

But by 9am on friday morning the -9 air is over most of Leinster so that should mean the rain/sleet will turn to snow for the rest of us.

All this is pie in the sky though as Friday is a long way away.

Dewpoints must be below freezing and at least -2c to be on the safe side.
I dont see why they cant, considering the source.

Incidently that FI chart has the Wicklow mts developing their own -10 cold pool on friday-my local croghan mt could be an interesting place to spend that day

lucernarian

Dewpoints are set to be too high allright. Sleet and rain seem to be the order of the day until the main band of precipitation has passed. And there could still be no precipitation.

ninebeanrows

Ramping postponed.. 0z ensembles showed abit of diasgreement..

Im waiting to be sure before we get ramping

At this stage i rate the chances of 1 inch of snow lying in eastern
areas by Saturday next as 40%

ninebeanrows

Hail/Snow pellet showers will begin to hit the east coast during Tuesday evening... turning increasingly to snow

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn601.png
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn602.png
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn604.png
http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn603.png

ninebeanrows

Cold day wednesday

Maxima of 3-5c

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn7817.png

The last two posts are comments on the output of course as ramping has been postponed

By the way for what its worth,my underlying thinking on this spell-provided even some of the less potent charts happen is that,it should at the very least do what it did last year.
So I do expect snow showers and anything after that is a bonus.

It *should* be colder by the end of the week for 2 reasons ; the fact that the wind will be stronger than last year and the fact that it will last longer and I suppose a third and very important one, its going to be travelling over snow fields that werent there last year.

Dewpoints,I'm concerned about them.

Temps of 3c and dewpoints of plus 1 celcius do not a snow storm make ( unless the precip is very heavy)

ninebeanrows

Potential but temperatures do not favour snow below circa 200m's

It would likely be snow turning to rain then turning back to snow

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1144.png

Very uncertain time but potential for a large amount of snow..

But lets picture.. its starts snowing at 6am and there a light covering, would the temp rise when there a snow cover
enough to turn the snow to rain before it turns to snow again??

Hmmm

The position of the high seems to move the colder air Westwards further south which seems logical.

I hope thats only 40 or 50 miles further south

Seriously though, these charts are at best indicative only,thursday is FI territory when GFS is trying to negotiate an Easterly so ,i still maintain that it has the potential to do better than last year.

This does not mean that it will.

/ me off line now for a few hours so I expect the heads up when I come back

Incidently dont rule out the effects of lying snow in Britain on the surface wind temp and obviously the effect of lying snow here too if we are lucky.

ninebeanrows

A chilly day on Friday

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn12617.png

Whether theres a foot of snow lying or not:o

I see ECM have a greenie high.

just one small anecdote.

I remember snow falling here when it was raining in Dublin (after having been snowing there) in the january 87 spell.
That was probably an 850's temp difference causing it.

Gone now - be good

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

I see ECM have a greenie high.

just one small anecdote.

I remember snow falling here when it was raining in Dublin (after having been snowing there) in the january 87 spell.
That was probably an 850's temp difference causing it.

Gone now - be good

:eek: :mad:



As we move into FI Greeny himself is saying HI!!!!!