Oh Lords of Kobol - please let it snow

lucernarian

This run is a further upgrade. In the reliable timeframe the LP is still showing up, and in this run it should be good for snow.

The problem is that the small changes in this run can make so musc difference. It wouldn't take much to change the balance in our favour or against it. Still, we're approaching the 100 hr mark with this sustained forecast. Things are looking better.

I decided yesterday that if the models held up by Monday morning, then I will ramp. Until then, its pragmatism all the way:)

LookingFor

Just had a rainy/haily/sleety shower in west dublin

Snow to round out winter would be nice, but I'm not getting my hopes up quite yet.

lucernarian

I missed the F'kin farming forecast whhen I was outside getting coal. What was said??? I see the ensembles do not look that good.

I would like to see colder temps from the other runs and the operational seems somewhat like a cold outlier non-FI.

There are too many runs for my liking rising above the -5 line for my liking. This week is certainly not set in stone.

Temps 4 to 8c - even on wed,thurs and friday.
A few wintry showers in the East
Mostly dry

No GFS in that farming forecast
Certainly not a ramp.

SpitfireIV

I thought they were being a bit conservative on the farming forecast and didnt go into any great detail for Thursday and Friday, he mentioned something about a 'few wintery showers' but that was it.

Just looking at Accuweather and they show a daytime temp of -1 for Thursday with a night time temperature of -7C! haha :v: :v:

And MetCheck has downgraded its snow risk :mad:

CroppyBoy1798

Supercell

Already!

EIDW 191230Z 05011KT 9999 -SHGS FEW012 SCT028 BKN033 05/03 Q1003 TEMPO 5000=

Roll on the floor laughing at your signature Longfield

Too warm here for anything like that

7.3c and a dewpoint of 2.4c

Nice NE wind though at 15mph

I notice using netweathers version of the GFS 06Z-it has -11c 850 air over wexford on Friday and -10c over most of the East.

FI though but better than seeing -3 there I suppose.

Supercell

They do give nice detail, I suppose the one below would be closest to Dublin.
Snow looks very borderline bar some of the more extreme members.

OK stand by I'll post what I was looking at but remember it is copyright netweather so its going down faster than it went up..

1 min

That warms a bit as we head further into FI but doesnt go above -7

And into the start of March its back into bitter again

Supercell

Wow, haven't seen those charts before, very nice indeed

Basically thats -11 850's with presumably 0 or sub zero dewpoints

Pity the pressure is high in the first one but its a lot lower in the second.
Both are FI.

My comment?
Well I'd say, its fantasy beyond Tuesday untill we get there but I'm still expecting snow based on the fact that snow came form this last year and it was less cold.
Thats based on this output and is subject to change of course

Yeah they'd make you wanna ramp wouldnt they...

Pity I'll prolly take them down before WC gets back.

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

Yeah they'd make you wanna ramp wouldnt they...

Pity I'll prolly take them down before WC gets back.

Lol !, good thinking

As to FI beyond Tuesday am totally in agreement there, heres hoping the charts look so good in a couple of days.

lucernarian

Everything seems to be going OK temperature-wise, albeit uncertain come Thursday. Indeed Wednesday is still in some doubt.

The problem is it is not that hard to get cold weather and it is not that hard to get precipitation but to get cold and precipitation will be pretty tricky. We're not going to see much more than a dusting except at the top of the Wicklow or Mourne Mts. from unorganised showers I feel.

We need something organised to get decent snow but there is the risk of it falling as rain should there be warm sectors.

BTW it has occurred to me that some guests reading this might think we are expecting -11c air temps next week.
Lol we arent.
Those are temps at above 5000 ft.
The -11 is tempered by 6 or 7 degrees to sea level and by 3 or 4 with the ambient sea level conditions
So that could translate to 0 celcius or plus one celcius at ground level and with su zero dew points, snow and not rain.

All subject to change

lucernarian

The LP development has speeded up on the latest GFS model run.

The warm sector is over NI on Thursday morning now.

The very cold air is still there with Ireland under -10 mid-altitude air reaching us late on Thursday. Pressure is rather high at ~1025 hPa but the flow seems rather unstable at that point.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1082.png

nice pool of -10 there for most of Ireland

-8 850's over Leinster by 3pm Wenesday on this run

Supercell

Earthman wrote:

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn1082.png

nice pool of -10 there for most of Ireland

That is a peach of a chart!!, any precipitation will very likely be white under that air!!
Also that low to the south should deliver some precipitation to the east at least!!





















Must keep calm...

LoL

We now have a -12 850 on friday ..over south leinster...

I wonder does WC think thats enough for snow

Supercell

Also on closer examination look at the dip in the isobars over the Irish Sea indicating instability/trough formations likely..'tis looking mighty interesting.

I'm feeling cold looking at this

lucernarian

In FI the Greenland High is currently being bullied by the Atlantic but suddenly at around t+180 the LP dies a mysterious death and it's business as usual???

Unusual evolution though the cold does reach Ireland... eventually. And it's short-lived. I'll put it this way: cold lovers in Germany will be very well pleased.

I think it's a typical FI run with a rather unlikely evolution.

And with all this talk of -12 850 hPa air, does that increase the chances of precipitation?? It's all very well having a cold day but where's my damn snow??:P

SpitfireIV

MetCheck have just issued an advance weather warning:

" Snow & Ice --

Areas Affected: - England & Scotland.-

This is an early Weather Watch covering the risk of snow and ice throughout the coming week. East and/or Northeasterly winds will usher in increasingly cold conditions as the week progresses and any precipitation will turn increasingly wintry over the next couple of days.

Central and Eastern parts of England and also Central and Eastern parts of Scotland are at main risk, but other parts of the UK could see some snow over the course of the coming week. There remains some uncertainty over the main areas at risk and also the extent of any snow. There continues to be a risk of more organised and persistent snow crossing parts of the UK later in the coming week.

Frost and ice will develop by night and this will be an additional hazard. This weather watch will be updated or upgraded as the week progresses.

FORECASTER: HUGO"

They put Ireland in the 'low risk' caregory, still though, low risk is better than no risk I guess :rolleyes:

CroppyBoy1798

ninebeanrows

Im starting to think for once! were in a better position than our English
collegues, due to the postiioning of the Lp and cold pool.

I would be in mega ramp at this stage but other Boards are being extremely
cautious and overly negative in my opinion partly due to poor
BBC/RTE forecasts.

Monday 6c
Tuesday 5c
Wednesday 4c
Thursday 3c
Friday 2c

There my predicted maxima for DUBAIR this week;)