Lords of Kobol-please give us Blizzards

Supercell

Danno

Hmmm, This one is not cut in stone yet lads.

A low of only 1020hpa is not going to be anything too severe, a cloudy spell with some light showers IMHO.

Well late FI is certainly interesting.


And I like the cut of longfields smile.

Me signing off now.
Next train leaves shortly after none

For those of you taking the earliers shuttles (UKMO,DWD,GEM,FAX CHARTS, and ECMWF especially) please continue with your thoughts as and when you have them

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote:

I would think if you live above 150m's your guaranteed snow its a day before job for us folks at 30m asl though

Is that meant to be some kind of tease??!? I live at 145 metres asl!!:p

I'm a bit dissapointed that the main bulk of the ppn seems to be sleet and rain when it could've been snow. The timing of it is poor as WC correctly said.

I had a look at metcheck and snow amounts have improved - is their interpretation of the charts correct? i.e. if the 06z run came off that 2 odd inches would be the result for Louth in my case?

SpitfireIV

Why so sad Longfield?? (:v: :v: )

Supercell

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Why so sad Longfield?? (:v: :v: )

Hehe, i've a feeling some parts of the country, maybe large parts, will be grinding to a halt on Thursday

Scubadevils

seems to be a lot more hope here than on net-weather? All talk now of models backtracking and downgrades? I'm glad this time round I haven't got too excited

ninebeanrows

No downgrades from what i was expecting...

A cold spell for a few days upto Saturday with no real mild breakdown
and the possibility of a Northerly outbreak after..

From Wednesday you wont get a max above 4/5 for at least 5 days;)

And Thursday has all the hallmarks of a great event.
Personally i dont want a closed circulation, a wave feature would
do perfect and im confident one will push through, this will give an
area of precip with limited windspeed so milder air is caught up from
the irish sea.

Most models through in that feature during Thursday so im fully hopeful
that we will see a few hours of snow on Thursday:)

SpitfireIV

Joe Ba$tardi's blog over on Accuweather below, looks interesting and Winter may still have a few surprises!

"Meanwhile the deepening of the mean trof near the northeast coast of North America forces even more ridge over Greenland and the jet on the eastern side digs anew into central Europe with the most WIDESPREAD arctic outbreak of the season by next weekend. While this won't be as cold in the east as previous outbreaks, it will be colder across the west. Much of England will see some snow over the next 10 days and temperatures across France are liable to average 3-5 C below normal the week of the 26th, for instance.

So, some nasty weather, certainly the most WIDESPREAD cold in relation to normal is developing as finally the negative NAO is developing a classic look -- one that will mean plenty of stormy, cold weather the next 10-15 days for all of Europe, except the southeast where it is more wet than cold. "



And from Net Weather:
"Thursday shows signs of being pretty interesting but its best to leave any real prediction on that for a day or two. As is the prospect of what ‘might’ happen over next weekend and further ahead."


And from my imagination:


:v: CroppyBoy1798

lucernarian

Weathercheck wrote:

this will give an
area of precip with limited windspeed so milder air is caught up from
the irish sea.

Is milder air being caught up in the wave feature a good thing???

It's going to be a real now cast situation in the next few days and on Thursday.
Nothing at all might happen though I doubt that.

It could be wet snow at low levels or on the coast with little or no settling.

But if snow becomes persistant, then it obviously will mean temps will drop during the snow fall so you could have an event on your hands.


As for net weather-most of the users there are UK based so wont be too interested in whats happening here except to dispair that it is not happening with them.

Incidently dewpoint has taken a tumble here.
0.8 and its only monday evening-thats a good sign.

Pressures rising though and the higher it is, the less heavy the precip.

If WC's low appears and it has a BM pressure of 1018 or lower then we are in business.
Thats the kind of shallow low you want caught up in an Easterly as it doesnt mess with the wind source too much.
They were common in the Irish sea in the 80's spells.

I remember one that formed off wexford and moved north up the Irish sea dumping several inches up along the East coast to Dublin.
That was either jan or february of 86.
It's effects were felt only inland as far as say Hacketstown to Naas though.

Scubadevils

How is this turning out better for us than the UK in an easterly?

Danno

Felix, two reasons...

1. We are further north.
2. The cold pool of air is over Wales and Ireland more-so than S E England.

LookingFor

The Sky News Ireland weather report was quite conservative. They actually forecast possible snow on high ground in the SE tonight, but for Thursday they had a lot of drizzly rain over the east of the country..

Met Eireann's forecast is same "cover all bases" one as since the weekend - "sunshine and wintry showers".

Supercell

Its going to be very very close probably, some areas are going to get loads of snow, other areas nearby will get nothing but sleety rain, elevation and luck will play a larger part in which area you are in.

Personally i'd say WC is well postioned for it, the lucky so and so, as historically the north/south borderline for snow/rain has often been just north of the city centre .
Have high hopes for here too though as am a couple of miles inland

It is actually an evolution.

ECM have widespread precip across the UK heading lighter into Ireland thursday into friday

Then they have a northerly with literally oceans of cold air in it.

Too far ahead to even think about.

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

It is actually an evolution.

ECM have widespread precip across the UK heading lighter into Ireland thursday into friday

Then they have a northerly with literally oceans of cold air in it.

Too far ahead to even think about.

Hey earthman just wondering if infac tyour thinking this chart is showing precip

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!96!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006022012!!chart.gif

It is infact showing windspeed rather than precip..

I could be wrong and if i am please send the link of precip ECM chart this way:cool:

Supercell

Weathercheck, do you have a digital camera?, if my suspicions are true and you do better out of this than most of us, please post some snaps !!

I'm taking a wild guess but intuitive at what those increased wind speeds imply combined with the pressure.
I do know what that chart is for

Danno

SKY - what a useless weather service. They ALWAYS get it wrong.

RTE - I dunno what is going on there - cover all bases looks like it.

TV3 - What do they know - eejits the lot of them!



Anyone want to make a forecast for this week?

Danno

Here is what I think will happen:

Blue=Rain; Pink=Sleet; White=Snow

SpitfireIV

I see MetCheck have updated there forecasts and are now showing a lot more snow for Carlow anyway .

ninebeanrows

Yep I'll make one

Tuesday:
A cool day across the country with moderate northeasterly breezes, cloud
will increase across the east through the day with a few showers pepping
up towards evening falling as rain or hail. Mostly dry and bright elsewhere
with lots of sunshine,
Max temps 5-9c

Wednesday:
A much cloudier day across much of the country with outbreaks of light
outbreaks of sleet in the east on and off through the day with some
falls of snow in heavier bursts and ove higher ground. Generally cloudy
elsewhere with again the risk of light outbreaks of sleet.
Max temps. 3-6c

Thursday:
Light outbreaks of sleet and perhaps some insignifigant snow will dy out
and it will be a generally cold day with light easterly breezes. Feeling
very cold. Cloud will increase in the afternoon in the east with outbreaks
of rain, sleet and snow pushing in much of Leinster and east Ulster
towards evening this will push westwards with its furthest south extent
likely to be across northern parts of Munster. Some accumalation of snow
is likely across Leinster, the Midlands, Northern Munster and Connacht
with accumalations of 3-10cm's by Friday morning.
Max temps 2-4c

ninebeanrows

Longfield wrote:

Weathercheck, do you have a digital camera?, if my suspicions are true and you do better out of this than most of us, please post some snaps !!

And longfield! how you think i could possibly do any good outta of a
possible snow event is beyond me:D

But i'll have some snaps!

Supercell

Danno wrote:

Here is what I think will happen:

Blue=Rain; Pink=Sleet; White=Snow

Danno what tool are you using to make these pics, i'd like to have a go at doing the same

Danno

Microsoft Windows XP Paint!

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v678/dldunne/NorthWestEurope2.jpg

There is a blank for you!

ninebeanrows

unfortunately no feature on Thursday on the 18z of signifigance

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn664.png

but this can change yet:)

ninebeanrows

No sub -10c pool either and no precip on thursday overall a very disappointing
run so far.. Thursday could well be dry:(

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn782.png

Danno

Are they pushing it further North?

lucernarian

Very poor run so far; if FI has nothing for us either then it will be a disastrous run:o

S***e happens.

So long as I see one snow shower... Then I'll win a little... a bet, shall we say?:D