Lords of Kobol-please give us Blizzards

Incidently
O chance of snow on thursday and friday.
Just goes to show what cack these models are.
Complete flip in the near term on what they were showing yesterday.

I hope WC is not too disappointed.

Now tell me why should I have any more confidence in what they say for next week based on the complete Fallacy that they predicted last week for this week??

Cold yes
Snow no (except on the highest ground)

Notice how GFS has the temps up about 3 degrees on the same prediction yesterday)

SpitfireIV

Jeez! Why oh why does this always happen to us??? :rolleyes: . Just when it was starting to look good and was in sight, it starts backing off on us, oh well.

Whats the chances of things turning good again (good as in the snowy weather coming back) I know it changed pretty quick, but is it possible for things to take a U turn again?? (I know the weather is unpredictable) but is it 'possible'??

CroppyBoy1798

well theres always next week
Looking good for Ulster anyway...

Thats if you can believe it.

But lets just comment on the output.
The 12 z today develops into a huge northerly plunge.

No doubt it wont happen and next week the models will tell us it willl happen the following week.

ninebeanrows

Back to the now some showers moving onto the Irish coast...

I would still say that there is a 20% possibility of lying snow in the
greater Dublin area this week...

Shower of hail moving to my north:)

ninebeanrows

And i think some folk might be pleasently surprised this week.

Temperatures wont get above 5c from now on in Leinster for an unknown
period, heavy showers will bring temps down to 2 or 3c..

For the next week snow will be possible ...

As i say for the next 12 hours some decent showers are likely and after
dark these will begin to turn to snow

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Back to the now some showers moving onto the Irish coast...

I would still say that there is a 20% possibility of lying snow in the
greater Dublin area this week...

Shower of hail moving to my north:)

I've had lots of showers today.
Mostly light and brief and mostly of hail
Temp has been a steady 6c all day which isnt bad given the wind is strong off the Irish sea.
Dewpoint is dropping now which is also good
currently DP = +0.8
That needs to get below freezing and stay there (for the next forthnight )

ninebeanrows

Ah even if we dont get any snow from this, its nice to see puffy cumuls
and cumulonimbus striding by on a brisk easterly wind...;)

SpitfireIV

Weathercheck wrote:

its nice to see puffy cumuls
and cumulonimbus striding by on a brisk easterly wind...;)

Very poetic WC :v:

lucernarian

The Greenland High is back on track currently in the models but the latest Dublin ensembles show a mininun 850 hPa temp of -8 tomorrow, rising quickly again to the poor level of -4 or -5.

That's ok to see snow showers during a brief period but it seems our fears of this organised feature being rain have been confirmed.

As for the 12z models, I predict that from now on they will back down and reduce the potential for significant snow gradually until by the start of this weekend we will have a weak event with no more chance of snow next week than we have for the rest of this week.

What they have now is simply the extreme idealistic situation and this trend will be diluted IMO. Anyway, lets not kid ourselves.... the potential in the charts are not brilliant and GFS does not show an ice day by any means at any point on the run. England might be a favoured location, not to mention N&E scotland but western areas will be dissapointed.

Pragmatism not idealism...

Well ok
At least the weather is interesting at the moment.

It might spring a surprise yet in the next 48 hours.

As regards the longer term, theres a complete ensemble agreement for nice warm atlantic 850 air to head into Greenland and thats going to strengthen the high there.
Thats going to push Artic cold south and probably a low pressure system or two.

A few polar lows (usually only predictable 36-48hrs beforehand) could also happen.

Having seen everything now bar the ECM,theres a consistency in wanting a prolonged cold with a weak southerly jet.
That sort of set up should be easy peazy for the models to deal with.
So I'd be expecting them to be more reliable when its set up.

I'm tending towards Darkman2's view right now-especially after seeing the WAA heading towards Greenland.
What I would like to see is a North northeasterly in the middle of this for a few days or another northeasterly as Scandy is a hotbed for lows (pardon the reverse pun) and they'd be coming down with -15 850's and -40 500's which is what you want right now.

The outlook is cold.The promise is hail sleet and snow.
Lets see what happens.


To the people whjo fear that everything always goes wrong-Remember that once a GH is in place and a northerly or NE is in place those models will deal with it better.
It's a close high without a Gh that they seem to always have most problems with.

BigCon

Well lads, as I posted a couple of days ago (which was subsequently deleted for some reason) - no amount of predictions and charts are going to give us snow like we used to have in the 80's - it's just not going to happen.
I'm wondering if we are going through an exceptionally long spell without a snowfall over 6-8 inchs?
Does anyone have access to yearly snowfalls for the last 100 years? It would be very interesting to see where we lie at the minute - maybe the 80's was the exeption and we thought it was the norm...

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

To the people whjo fear that everything always goes wrong-Remember that once a GH is in place and a northerly or NE is in place those models will deal with it better.

That's a very interesting comment. I'd be interested to know why the models would be better at handling a Greenland High instead of a ridging Scandi/Siberian HP.:)

I know that northerlies were better predicted by GFS, and the other models aswell I'm sure but they were all small LPs rushing down from the Artic with the Azores HP following in as far as I'm aware.

I believe the current synoptics involve a HP to the north of us ridging up into Greenland as opposed to mid-atlantic ridging.

Danno

Had a sleet shower in Portlaoise at 1800hrs. Potential for snow is arriving I think. With the winds backing more ENE the showers should start to roll in more and more for the next 36-48hrs. I think that Fridays AM event could be significant...

RTE are only starting to put a handle on it now...

Danno

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/Rtavn604.png

Danno

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/radar/animation.html

UP TO 2100Z: Wicklow, Wexford, Waterford, Kilkenny, Laois, S Kildare and Tipperary - Some nice shower trough coming in... Very E in direction!

BigCon

BigCon wrote:

Well lads, as I posted a couple of days ago (which was subsequently deleted for some reason)

It was deleted because you were trolling and thread spoiling.
These threads are for discussing the output of various weather models.
All trolling on this board or unhelpfull posts will be deleted on site and persistant offenders banned.

Danno

Danno wrote:

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/radar/animation.html

UP TO 2100Z: Wicklow, Wexford, Waterford, Kilkenny, Laois, S Kildare and Tipperary - Some nice shower trough coming in... Very E in direction!

Fell as rain and hail here,not surprising with a temp of +5c,though the dp's have finally just dipped below zero.

Slippin Jimmy

Earthman wrote:

Fell as rain and hail here,not surprising with a temp of +5c,though the dp's have finally just dipped below zero.

So what are the chances of seeing a bit of snow this week or next week?:D

I wouldnt rule it out next week.
Theres certainly going to be some on the high ground in the East North and northwestover the next 10 days or so.

Low ground is far from certain.

Danno

Wet snow and hail here recently, currently 1.6c

lucernarian

Me wrote:

That's a very interesting comment. I'd be interested to know why the models would be better at handling a Greenland High instead of a ridging Scandi/Siberian HP.

Any reason Earthman? Or anyone else for that matter?

Danno

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk/radar/animation.html

Anyone following the last 3 hours radar?

It seems a big switch in wind direction has taken place -

It seems that the showers are coming from the ESE now!

SpitfireIV

Forgive my complete lack of weather ehh...knowledge, but is that a good thing or a bad thing Danno?

lucernarian

Was just looking at the radar 10 mins ago. I noticed a few of the showers taking a more Easterly or ESE path but in england it's still an ENE path. 2130 radar will make things clearer.

Danno

I presume that it is good because the HP off our NW coast would appear to be retreating toward Iceland/Greenland more, allowing more unstability in the east wind? Thats my understanding of it!

Danno

I know it's OT: Why is boards.ie soooo slow tonight and last night?

ninebeanrows

Danno wrote:

I know it's OT: Why is boards.ie soooo slow tonight and last night?

Its always slow:D

SpitfireIV

A lite shower here in Carlow town at the moment, mostly rain, bits of sleet mixed in too.

type pie.boards.ie into your address bar and it should be faster.