Lords of Kobol-please give us Blizzards

To_be_confirmed

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Any reason Earthman? Or anyone else for that matter?

It's my understanding that the GFS handles Northerlies and westerlies in this part of the world better than it does a meandering high that doesnt want to go anywhere soon or a scandi high ergo it is more likely to be on the ball in the developing northerly.

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

type pie.boards.ie into your address bar and it should be faster.

Also use firefox with the adblock extension and block out google analytics and star adserver

ninebeanrows

Another heavy hail shower just past;) Big chunky hail! The proof
is in the holding of it:D

SpitfireIV

Another shower here currently, actually started off looking good, pieces of sleet falling.......then sleet and a little rain.....then very light mist :rolleyes:

Danno

Wet snow at 0.9c - geez, what does it take for it to snow here anymore!

There must be fairly mild air aloft. Mist/Fog/Hazey too - and the smoke from households burning coal is not rising much either. cough cough.

Danno

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/3hour.asp looks good for a few more hours...

ninebeanrows

Ice pellets on and off all morning.. Everything quite wet and feeling raw
in a strong easterly wind:)

LookingFor

Seems the wind is going to be turning more northerly from tomorrow according to met eireann's forecast. It also mentions the word 'snow' for the first time.

Cloud and rain clearing away again during Friday - then very cold for the rest of the weekend, with a raw Northeast to East wind, and with widespread night frosts at times again. Mix of cloudy weather and clear skies, with some bright sunshine for most parts - dry in many areas, but some wintry showers also, especially on exposed coasts, and these could produce falls of snow locally.

Gonzo

cold, cloudy, dryish day so far, every now and then a few ice pellets falls from the sky and stops a few seconds later.

ninebeanrows

CB's rolling in from the Irish sea..

All falling as hail:)

ninebeanrows

By far the best ensemble output of the winter:)

So were looking at a good 6 day proper northerly from Sunday.. and even between now and then
temps will stay no more than 5c with sleet and hail on and off with perhaps some snow on igher
ground

Next week looks more likely for proper snow and accumalation. Night frosts and then fronts
moving south.. Winters going to end in circa 12 days but were gonna have 12 days of proper
winter for a change.. So it could well be that from today Dublin doesnt record a max of higher than
6c for 12 or more dats thats very good for late FEB

ninebeanrows

For snow report of the cold spell comes from non other than Cork Airport

RECENT SNOW

ninebeanrows

I missed a massive shower to my north looked to be falling as snow

The radar confirms my suspicions

Gonzo?? are you out there?

Gonzo

we havent had much here, we have had snow flurries and ice pellets but nothing that lasts more than 40 seconds:)

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

For snow report of the cold spell comes from non other than Cork Airport

RECENT SNOW

Yes but at 700ft above sea level-I know for a fact that it has snowed on high ground in Wicklow,yesterday and the day before and more than likely at the three rock mast in Dublin over the past few days too.

Next week looks more likely for proper snow and accumalation. Night frosts and then fronts
moving south.. Winters going to end in circa 12 days but were gonna have 12 days of proper
winter for a change.. So it could well be that from today Dublin doesnt record a max of higher than
6c for 12 or more dats thats very good for late FEB

The length of it may change but its looking good-all eyes on the next 7 days of runs and ensembles!

If those northerlies end up being North Northeasterlies as is suggested in some of the output,there'll be ski-ing at the crossroads


(Hopefully)

highdef

Fairly heavy looking sleety showers pushing in towards your neck of the woods Weathercheck - Sleet with ice pellets and temps now falling - It's now 5.7 down from 6.8 30 mins ago and humidity is at 70% so DP is around 1c, I guess

ninebeanrows

The Northerly slowly begins to unravel on the 12z ENS's:rolleyes:

Ho HUm

Danno

Can someone summarise what is going on over the next few days...

ninebeanrows

well tomorrow milder upper air will move in with the wave feature
bringing sleety weather. Then that system will be backed up bitter
upper air with a sharp decrease in temps by Friday. Then things will
return to cool 4-8c and then slowly get much colder from Sunday
with a cold spell likely to continue for the whole week:)

Supercell

Danno wrote:

Can someone summarise what is going on over the next few days...

Thu - Sun

Some sleet and hail showers, mainly near eastern coastal areas.
A period of rain on Thursday with sleet, and snow in some areas and over high ground, along the east coast will be rain (unless you are about 10+ approx miles inland).

Sun +

Cool with day time temps around the 3-7 mark (highest in areas where long breaks in cloud and power of the springtime sun will lead to considerable diurnal warming).
Possibility of southerly tracking lows with significant snowfall (wont lay for days given time of year but could be big ).
Its nice, wish it happend a month ago, but its the last chance saloon we are drinking in now:)

LFCFan

It's not going to happen. I can say that with 100% confidence. Not a chance. Not even a flake. More chance of a heatwave actually. You heard it here first!

Scubadevils

Fully agree. Appears the backtrack has begun once again. Without doubt, next winter I'm booking a week in the snow somewhere

darkman2

Certainly getting colder:eek:

Scubadevils

Looks wonderful but as always its 5 days away :eek:

Theres a couple of good charts darkman2 in this 18z for the East that show a NNE flow and -10 air

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1202.png

That one would send lake effect snow showers into Dublin (deffo snow I think with minus dewpoints and -10 850's)

Then it swings NNW untill 150 when we get our showers back again

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/Rtavn1502.png

Not all bad in the East I think,if some of the lake effect snow showers are shared with wales instead of all going into wales.

There could also be a polar low or three in the mix and if they coincided with a NNE flow-bingo,I think.

Good overall for Ulster regardless of the NNE to NNW swings and North connaught

Scubadevils

Earthman, although you had no disclaimer I know you are not ramping as you base what you are saying on the what the models are showing now What are your honest/gut feelings on the coming week for Ireland? If they are positive in terms of snow what makes this time any different to all the let downs we have had so far?

The die is not cast yet Felix but the addition here is the minus dewpoint values that are likely in the Northerly.

We are likely to get -2 or -3c dewpoints and that would mean snow in temps as high as 3c
Thats plausible if -10 850 air reaches us.

And yes I'm only commenting on this run.

I do have my doubts as from 100% consistency earlier, the UKMO has parted.
It might rejoin the others.

I'm tempted not to comment anymore now for a few days unless theres something amazing happening.

Hill snow tomorrow night into friday is likely though in the short term.

Scubadevils

Cheers, I think I'll try not even look for a few days! Maybe pop back on Sunday and see how we're doing then. Its amazing how you can get sucked in each and every time regardless of all the previous failures :rolleyes:

Scubadevils

Out of interest (and to leave a grain of hope in my head), was the snow in Feb '01 forecast or was it a surprise event?

darkman2

Felixdhc wrote:

Out of interest (and to leave a grain of hope in my head), was the snow in Feb '01 forecast or was it a surprise event?

It was forcast 4 or 5 days out. I missed that btw, I was on holidays -- Skiing! What was it like?