The Lords of Kobol say yes-Ramp on its coming!!!

kaizer

How do you reckon Ulster will do out of this. Im on the east coast.
Shes lookin cold for next week alright <shiver>:v:

lucernarian

Here's a link for the HIRLAM model:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/tkfaxhir.html
It's not great at predicting 6 hours away:D Other links are grand though;)

Ulster seems the place to be for this cold spell. Especially northern facing coasts. East coast should still see snow though not as much if you're in Co. Down say as opposed to Co. Antrim.

Early days yet though and that could change.

kaizer

sweet - excitin week ahead for all of us then

I found this site don't know if you's seen it before - I changed the country to Ireland. It tells ye how cold its supposed to be and how much precip etc!!

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/country/Ireland.html

lucernarian

That's a very good link - one for the sticky. Latest GFS run shows a slight downgrade but it looks set that that most of the northern half of the country should see 1 inch during the week at least. Nothing brilliant but we cant complain considering it will be early March.

darkman2

Another excellent run, some nice charts An outlier in some ways though:)

SpitfireIV

Latest from MetCheck:

"The rest of the week will see a mixture of sunshine and wintry showers, most of these will fall as snow even down to low levels, but more especially over higher ground. There still remains some uncertainty over just how much snow will fall and specifically where, but at the moment parts of Scotland, Eastern England, Wales and Ireland could be at greatest risk. It wouldn't be out of the question for in excess of 15cm of snow by the end of the week and locally up to 20cm to 30cm, especially where drifting in strong Northerly or Northeasterly winds takes place.

The snow won't be the only problem, daytime temperatures will struggle to reach and pass the freezing mark, especially over snow cover. Temperatures by night will also plummet again especially over snow cover and as extremes temperatures may well reach -10C to -15C. The cold weather is currently set to last into next weekend when a breakdown is currently expected as milder weather edges in from the Atlantic. This is still a long way away but this change to milder conditions next week could also signal the threat of some significant snow for a time before it turns milder.

All in all get ready for a very wintry week and keep those winter woolies, shovels and de-icer close by!."

darkman2

Sometimes they forget to put in the 'Northern' in front of Ireland;)

darkman2

Thier risk charts http://www.metcheck.com/DATA/FORECAST/WARNINGS/UK/WARNING.jpg

ninebeanrows

12z GFS excellant

Its going to be a bitter week with the risk of widespread snowfall

Specifics will come in in the coming 24-36hrs:)

SpitfireIV

Stand up those of ye who said winter was over, show youselfs!! :v: :v: If this snow does come ye'll be sentenced to death......by snowballing! :v:

:v: :v:

Supercell

It does look great have to say , but, N/NW winds = dry and sunny at this time of year (in Dublin) unless associated with fronts.

Thinking the ramping going on here is OTT tbh.

lucernarian

Longfield, you're a bit too pessimistic but there's definitely some truth in what youre saying. This isn't going to deliver like Feb 2001 did and it should, should deliver more than this time last year. I'm not expecting much more.

I'm just happy that some sort of snow is guaranteed. I'd prefer small amounts of guaranteed snow than loads of borderline precipitation.

If you live in Derry however, then it's time to pop open the bubbly.:)

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

12z GFS excellant

Its going to be a bitter week with the risk of widespread snowfall

Specifics will come in in the coming 24-36hrs:)

Latest UKMO cold spell goes on and on and on.............:o

ninebeanrows

the ground is now concreted amazing ENS's out o March 5th!!!!!!!

Now the building to go ontop!

Things like troughs and PL's will start to be discussed from tomorrow
as the northerly gets underway. With cold stagant and very unstable
air something is bound to go POP!

Longfield is bitter as i have been after so so many disappointments but
once he see's that snow falling out his window he'll be in full ramp:D

darkman2

Very encouraging http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/2006/02/26/basis12/enen/rart_06022818_2612.gif?2e494eec9506cb46c9a35e3ca8277d82

Villain

It will be interesting to see the six one forecast tomorrow night, surely they will have to start warning people of the potential disruption, especially up north.

darkman2

Remember the nature of northerlies is that parts of the southeast imparticular may stay completely dry throughout and on the downside night-time snow looks in very short supply away from the north. We need night time snow for decent accumulations. I would start issuing warning for the west and north at this stage though:)

Villain

So darkman if you were to pick the best place and time to be for the best snow in the Rep. Of Ireland where and when would it be at the moment?

I do realise it will come a lot clearer as we go through the week and we see how any troughs develop and what direction the wind takes.

I might take my AWD subaru on a nice snow drive, Cheers

darkman2

irish1 wrote:

So darkman if you were to pick the best place and time to be for the best snow in the Rep. Of Ireland where and when would it be at the moment?

I do realise it will come a lot clearer as we go through the week and we see how any troughs develop and what direction the wind takes.

I might take my AWD subaru on a nice snow drive, Cheers

Anywhere in Ulster, North Connaught and perhaps north Leinster should have lying snow by Tuesday night. Donegal is going to get an absolute hammering though;)

Supercell

Weathercheck wrote:

Longfield is bitter as i have been after so so many disappointments but
once he see's that snow falling out his window he'll be in full ramp:D

Hehe, yer absolutely right, I like to ramp with the best of 'em !!, am more than once bitten so very shy now to go nuts , its very late in the day for this kind of stuff, but am hoping )

Supercell

Putting some detail on it in Dublin terms, would expect that Tallaght, Lucan and more northern areas could do well..hoping my couple of miles inland here in Rathgar is enough for snow here too..was in the past!

Longfield

Longfield wrote:

Putting some detail on it in Dublin terms, would expect that Tallaght, Lucan and more northern areas could do well..hoping my couple of miles inland here in Rathgar is enough for snow here too..was in the past!

I dont actually think height or miles inland will be needed for snow to fall from Tuesday onwards.
There will be minus dewpoints and low temps.
For snow to stick, thats another matter.
From the word go on higher ground I'd say.

But Gerry Murphy's statement (repeated in other words again this evening) that shnow(deliberate h there ) will fall on high ground at night is ridiculous
It will increasingly fall to the coast from Tuesday onwards.
Pin pointing showers is the key and certainly I think they'll be widespread and heavy enough from wenesday onwards especially if a secondary low or polar lows come down

Wibbler

Longfield wrote:

Putting some detail on it in Dublin terms, would expect that Tallaght, Lucan and more northern areas could do well..hoping my couple of miles inland here in Rathgar is enough for snow here too..was in the past!

I saw the RTE weather after 6pm news tonight. Nothing very exciting for Dublin from what I heard. Temps up a 6 deg c. Wintry stuff confined to Ulster and North Connacht. Dublin seems a bit far from either of these places to me :rolleyes:. Why would Lucan / Tallaght be favoured over other parts of Dublin?

lucernarian

Earthman wrote:

Pin pointing showers is the key and certainly I think they'll be widespread and heavy enough from wenesday onwards especially if a secondary low or polar lows come down

And how likely would that be? I know that -40 500 hPa temps will help, as will low thicknesses but is there really much likelihood of those forming? The latest fax charts do not look brilliant in terms of organised ppn.

I hope they're likely though:o

ninebeanrows

Well i honestly dont understand why Met Eireann are being so cautious??

6c??? HA:D Wont get above 3c in Dublin on Tuesday dew points circa -4c.

Wednesday no more than 3c and dew points of circa -4c..

These days are withing 84hrs and if the temp reaches 6c in Dublin i will
eat my hat!

Ok there might not be widespread deep powder on Tuesday or Wednesday
but it will be cold enough for snow and showers will be widespread and
heavy at times:)

Night time temps down below -5c

ninebeanrows

I'll say that im VERY confident about this..

Every weather model is too:D

LookingFor

Earthman wrote:

But Gerry Murphy's statement (repeated in other words again this evening) that shnow(deliberate h there ) will fall on high ground at night is ridiculous

On the six one at least, though he qualified it once as being "snow on the hills", I don't think he said it'd just be at night, or did I heard that wrong? Their forecast on the web says there could be snow at lower levels "when temperatures drop", whatever that means.

But it was discouraging how he said "northern parts, even north connaught" :rolleyes: Hmm. I hope some of it travels down to north dub at least..

Takeshi_Kovacs

darkman2 wrote:

Remember the nature of northerlies is that parts of the southeast imparticular may stay completely dry throughout and on the downside night-time snow looks in very short supply away from the north. We need night time snow for decent accumulations. I would start issuing warning for the west and north at this stage though:)

When you say the west, how far down do you think snow will reach, i.e. will Kerry see a bit, or would i be better off heading to Brandon or Carrauntuohill..

lucernarian

Showers will be widespread, yes, but that's if you just consider north ulster and connaught. In Dublin, heavy and prolonged snow showers are unlikely IMO. Dublin would be lucky if they got 2 or 3 inches of lying snow.

ninebeanrows

To_be_confirmed wrote:

Showers will be widespread, yes, but that's if you just consider north ulster and connaught. In Dublin, heavy and prolonged snow showers are unlikely IMO. Dublin would be lucky if they got 2 or 3 inches of lying snow.

From just showers then yes i would agree:)

But more from features such as Polar lows and big troughs:)