Snow for some-Cold for all

kleefarr

Kilkenny City suburbs. (0900-1000)
We have had three snow showers, ranging from light to medium. Each only lasted at most tens minutes.
Hope there's more coming, the kids were getting very excited.

If I was to pick a place from Late Tuesday onwards for a reasonable risk of seeing regular snow showers,I'd say Ulster/North Connaught and down the west coast as far as Kerry or West cork as the NW wind will favour showers coming in off the Atlantic.
Secondary risks would probably be North Leinster.

As the air flow slackens a bit later in the week,I'd include Eastern coasts or at any time an organised feature might develop and run NW to SE.

Lowest risk would be the South midlands and South East.

I'd imagine with minus dewpoints and low temps, that anywhere that see's a shower will see it as snow though inland and high ground is needed for guaranteed settling unless you see an organised band come down

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3a.gif

Thats cold enough for snow with negative dewpoints but unless its heavy it will only settle on hills away from the north and windward areas.

Theres a chance the winds might go ENE on Wenesday/thursday depending on the orientation of the low in the North sea which would increase the risks of snow in Eastern areas.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn784.html

06 GFS want to send a low into the south Irish sea which would have implications for the south East and East coast with more prolonged rain sleet and snow.
It might carry a mild sector and higher dewpoints with it, but certainly it might give a good dumping on hills and well inland should it go there.

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn841.png

And here we have a better low developing off the North coast and heading south east in -40 500mb air

That could produce a lot of snow

And finally heres the latest fax for anybody who isnt sure of the source of the air we're going to be getting on Tuesday

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack0.gif

darkman2

I dont want to downplay it, certainly MASSIVE disruption in the North and Northwest. However NOT EVERYWHERE IS GOING TO SEE SNOW. Anywhere north of a line from Louth to Cavan to Donegal it is a certainty will see some accumulations. Also down along the west. The further south you are the more marginal it gets. I would rate Dublin 50/50 for snowfall at the moment simply due to a slack airflow after Tuesday.

Villain

I've a chance of going to Letterkenny for Wednesday and Thursday night, my only probelm now is will I actually make it there and will I get stuck there Friday?

darkman2

irish1 wrote:

I've a chance of going to Letterkenny for Wednesday and Thursday night, my only probelm now is will I actually make it there and will I get stuck there Friday?

Great place to be this week. Still not sure about the end of the week.


Here is a nice chart:http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/geturl/daten/profi/en/2006/02/27/basis06/enen/rart_06022818_2706.gif?7f4515d5fed9313265964bbd3f491d59

billy the squid

http://manuel-estimulo.blogspot.com/2006/02/brrrrrrrrr-is-bloody-cold.html
even spain has had snow yet we still wait :S

darkman2

Snow possible in the Southwest (perhaps this will go further north). Have to watch this one on Wednesday: http://www.metoffice.com/weather/charts/FSXX00T_48.jpg?20060227073013

Villain

Is it not likely that will fall as sleet on lower ground and only as snow on higher ground?

darkman2

Snow at sea level on its northern flank. Here it is on GFS, too far south. Dont rule out this being slightly further north:)

And...

The above chart is for next sunday and FI but increasing tendency towards an East wind which would be dragging very cold air from a new cold pool the GFS want to create over southern Britain due to the snow cover they might have from thursdays system

darkman2

Thats not the same system Earthman. Thats a depression arriving later on. Unfortunatley thats progged to be too far south as well:rolleyes: Just seen your post now, looks interesting but as you say FI. The orientation and location of that low will certainly change.

oh I know it will
heres the associated GFS temps at 6am

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Thats not the same system Earthman. Thats a depression arriving later on. Unfortunatley thats progged to be too far south as well:rolleyes: Just seen your post now, looks interesting but as you say FI. The orientation and location of that low will certainly change.

I notice Darkman you've mellowed your expectations for snow in the last day or two.
Understandable given the output.
Maybe Met Eireann are right after all?

I still think they are being way too cautious not to at least say theres a risk that there could be disruption especially up north and they seem afraid of the snow word.
Thats possibly because they got such criticism on Joe Duffy regarding last novembers snow... and they are being conservative now
It would be a sad day though for forecasting if a forecaster muted what they really think might happen or what there might be a risk of happening just because of last november or December.
That was different and there certainly was a risk of extensive snowfall up north then.

Risk should be mentioned to cover bases.

darkman2

I think the west and north will get a pasting however the East and South as usual are sheltered from the flow. Just heard Met Eireann forcast for tomorrow with the East and South remaining dry. Did say as we suspect showers becoming more widespread in the Afternoon. 'Some over Ulster may fall as snow even to low levels'. I think we will get some showers here however I dont expect much if any accumulation because at this time of year we really need it to snow at night. Of course there is always the chance of more prolonged stuff in the South. Huge disruption in the North I think regardless of what met eireann say:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

Excellant charts

Widespread heavy snow showers tomorrow with temperatures droppin!:D

Expecting accumalations towards nightfall..

The its a week of convectional snow showers and eventual disturbances
such as PL's etc.. Under such instability and low pressure things that cant
be predicted will form

Western and Northern areas are at certain risk of falls of snow in excess
of 6 inches over the next 3 days.. Northern Leinster and espcially the east
east coast are at risk of 3 inches to Wednesday night:)

Expect snow showers to band to longer spells of snow tomorrow so a
covering before dusk is more than likely:)

Gonzo

im not really expecting much if anything where I live except a dry, crisp, fairly sunny and frosty week.. usually northwesterly and northerly winds keep my area very dry and cold but sunny with broken cloud.. the showers always stay to the west, north, far northeast and sometimes north midlands. Unless some form of easterly occurs I dont think i'll see more than a few light flurries in the wind.

Supercell

Boards just went nuts there on me .

I reckon we may do better at this time of year on the east coast than maybe January in the same airflow as the power of the sun comparatively should aid convection overland and thus the showers should hopefully penetrate further inland and maybe even make it to the east coast.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Excellant charts

Widespread heavy snow showers tomorrow with temperatures droppin!:D

Expecting accumalations towards nightfall..

The its a week of convectional snow showers and eventual disturbances
such as PL's etc.. Under such instability and low pressure things that cant
be predicted will form

Western and Northern areas are at certain risk of falls of snow in excess
of 6 inches over the next 3 days.. Northern Leinster and espcially the east
east coast are at risk of 3 inches to Wednesday night:)

Expect snow showers to band to longer spells of snow tomorrow so a
covering before dusk is more than likely:)

I dont share your confidence WC. We are too sheltered in the East. We will be lucky to see a few flurries. Northern areas certainly baring the brunt:rolleyes:

SpitfireIV

I see MetCheck have issued a 'Severe Weather Warning' not long ago...



Red = high probability of ice/sleet/snow
Gold = Moderate risk

Still though, at least I'm out of the 'low risk' category

LFCFan

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

I see MetCheck have issued a 'Severe Weather Warning' not long ago...



Red = high probability of ice/sleet/snow
Gold = Moderate risk

Still though, at least I'm out of the 'low risk' category

It's amazing how the weather manages to differentiate between the 6 counties and the rest of us. Mother nature must be a Unionist

ninebeanrows

widespread shower activity tomorrow so me prolonged..
Should start to ly towards evening... Expect a nice 1 inche
covering by Wednesday morning:D in most areas more in the north and west

Villain

I'm hope to be in Dongeal for Thursday, WC do you expect there to be much lying snow up there by then?

ninebeanrows

irish1 wrote:

I'm hope to be in Dongeal for Thursday, WC do you expect there to be much lying snow up there by then?

Yes upto 15/20cm on higer ground maybe more:)

Lots of ice too.. very dangerous driving conditons by then

smashey

Weathercheck wrote:

Yes upto 15/20cm on higer ground maybe more:)

Lots of ice too.. very dangerous driving conditons by then

This would be the same Donegal where blizzards were forecast last November. We are still waiting on the white stuff. Don't hold your breath.:(

lucernarian

You've made your call for tomorrow weathercheck, now it's certainly doomed:p

I am concerned though that the snow won't stick. There's enough precipitation for an inch of snow allright but that means little if it doesn't stick. Are my fears justified?

The met office radar has heavy showers already pummeling the north of Scotland.

ninebeanrows

smashey wrote:

This would be the same Donegal where blizzards were forecast last November. We are still waiting on the white stuff. Don't hold your breath.:(

Yes..

A constant hammering of prolonged and heavy snow showers for at
very least 48hrs...

I expect at least 10cm to have fallen by morning Wednesday to low-levels:)

The fact that the Meto havent realeased a warning for this region
just seems totally daft:mad:

There will definately be a covering of snow throughout the region:)

Gonzo

I see Metcheck have the city of London greyed out as no risk at all.