Snow for some Cold for all (2)

fatherdougalmag

The MetO radar is showing an organised band of showers progressing NE-SW over Scotland at the moment.

Gonzo

the snow showers are dying away from the northwestern coasts, cloud & snow approaching the very tip of Kerry and the showers over wales and mid-irish sea starting to track back westwards towards dublin:) hopefully please let this work out....

Met Eireann's snow warnings for the east coast doesnt seem to be there, did they take it off?

darkmaster2

Its looking really dark south of here right now. Is it coming our way?

possibly,it wants to track west east more so than north as it is coming up against the north south flow.

No mention of it at all in the 1255 met forecast on RTE radio one just now and no mention at all of showers in the East tomorrow ...

LoL the Air temperature at the M2 buoy in the Irish sea at noon was 1.1c

That is the lowest I've ever seen it...

ninebeanrows

But the further north it comes the mor elikelyhood of an easterly
wind.. Currently glorious sunshine here... feels bitter though even walking
in the sun..

If the wind can even pick up a 10knot easterly we could be in business
but alas i think not.. But i do hope cause theres a nice few showers out
there trying to stretch across:)

Slippin Jimmy

It is a nice day here in Navan. But it was cold. No sign of any snow yet.

LookingFor

Earthman wrote:

No mention of it at all in the 1255 met forecast on RTE radio one just now and no mention at all of showers in the East tomorrow ...

It's a bit confusing. Maybe they're not sure how things will pan out. For tonight they say

Scattered hail and snow showers will continue, most frequent in the North and Northwest but all coastal areas are at risk of a few wintry showers.

For tomorrow they mention showers being most frequent on northern coasts, but accompany that with this chart:

Gonzo

doubt were gonna see anything the showers have almost dissappeared around Ireland, the showers in The Irish Sea are gone and headed into the Central & Southeast of the UK, only precipitation near us is the advancing rainfront far to our southwest- the dissapointment of this nonevent has long sunkin in at this stage and dont really care now what happens,

ninebeanrows

Confidence is growing on a trough/ Polar low forming later tomorrow..

I sigh a sigh of relief:rolleyes:

It looks likely that from 1600hrs tomorrow a trough will push into the northeast
and move down the Irish sea

Early estimates are that In eastern Leinster 2-5cm's of snow could fall
tomorrow evening so a few inches could be on the ground!

At last something to look forward to! and it all happens when the winds swing easterly for like 12 hrs!:o

ninebeanrows

The probably most respected and expert poster on UKMO

a member called Paul Blight posts this today at 2pm

Source Region lies to the North of Scotland in and to the west of the Northern Isles. Broad area of Deep convection already has some comma's and the source region lies ahead of some ascent and vorticity advection . UK Meso is keen to take this area into Scotland later today and down into N Ireland and the Irish Sea during tomorrow and brings heavy snow a fair way inland. This development could easily organise into a Polar Low at any time. Confidence is not high but needs watching...

ninebeanrows

ninebeanrows

Just to let you know that this fella NEVER NEVER overhypes anything..

He is the most level-headed and respected forecaster i know on any forum..
Im nearly sure he has a MET degree too

Slippin Jimmy

Weathercheck wrote:

Confidence is growing on a trough/ Polar low forming later tomorrow..

I sigh a sigh of relief:rolleyes:

It looks likely that from 1600hrs tomorrow a trough will push into the northeast
and move down the Irish sea

Early estimates are that In eastern Leinster 2-5cm's of snow could fall
tomorrow evening so a few inches could be on the ground!

At last something to look forward to! and it all happens when the winds swing easterly for like 12 hrs!:o

So what would the chances of Navan seeing a bit of snow tomorrow. It would be something to look forward to.

SpitfireIV

Sounds very interesting WC, thats something to look forward to anyway .

On another note, the sun is blasting down here in Carlow town, the odd puffy cloud passing on by, but apart from that a grand spring like day and a bit of warmth in the sun too when the wind stops

ninebeanrows

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/fax/PPVE89.TIF

Comma pushing into NI and heading into the Irish sea:eek:

ninebeanrows

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Sounds very interesting WC, thats something to look forward to anyway .

On another note, the sun is blasting down here in Carlow town, the odd puffy cloud passing on by, but apart from that a grand spring like day and a bit of warmth in the sun too when the wind stops

I kno! shocking that its only 2c out there!

darkman2

WC I dont really agree. Showers for the NI yes, but Dublin I reckon is doubtful (I could be wrong). I cant say wether the wind is off the Irish sea tomorrow afternoon:rolleyes:

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote:

WC I dont really agree. Showers for the NI yes, but Dublin I reckon is doubtful (I could be wrong). I cant say wether the wind is off the Irish sea tomorrow afternoon:rolleyes:

I dont care:p

Really i think we have a good chance with this.. if nothing else just increased
activity of shower that will push on shore..

Tomorrow avo is our best chance and i feel it will deliver :eek: :v:

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

I dont care:p

Really i think we have a good chance with this.. if nothing else just increased
activity of shower that will push on shore..

Tomorrow avo is our best chance and i feel it will deliver :eek: :v:

Maybe im missing something, I havnt been checking the charts. Could you just run through the possible sequence of events? Cheers:rolleyes:

I can confirm that its less than 2c

Slippin Jimmy

Weathercheck wrote:

I dont care:p

Really i think we have a good chance with this.. if nothing else just increased
activity of shower that will push on shore..

Tomorrow avo is our best chance and i feel it will deliver :eek: :v:

I hope you are right. You are a ledgend.

darkman2

Im on the coast and clouds are starting to make inroads off the Irish sea:)

ninebeanrows

http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/d2b.asp

Its coming ...

At this stage its just a comma.. but theres all the right ingreients to turn
it into a PL.. if so it will steer down the North Channel later tonight.

Certainly NI will probably getting hammered later tonight..

Meanwhile the low to our south pushes in but will push back south soon..

Could be some light snow across southern counties but may be too mild..

Its watch the satellite through tonight and i'll be doing 2 hour sleep shifts:D

SpitfireIV

A very thin layer of cloud starting to come over here now, there goes the sun :rolleyes: . Wish it would either stay sunny OR snow! lol

darkman2

The wind is now Easterly and any showers in the Irish sea will push onto the East coast.:D

ninebeanrows

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006030212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=18hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006030212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=24hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006030212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=30hr

12z UKMO is very good:D

I wonder what that could be in the irish sea??:D

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006030212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=18hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006030212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=24hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006030212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=30hr

12z UKMO is very good:D

I wonder what that could be in the irish sea??:D

Weathercheck that looks great BUT the wind is northerly for us. That will have implications for Wales but do you really see snow showers effecting us?

ninebeanrows

I'd say Eastern Ireland have a gret chance of seeing some prlonged snow tomorrow:D

Winters last stint.. Is it going to come off?:v:

By the way if you look at the report from my Davis above the wind direction has changed to North northeast

It's currently north east

Ok only 3mph but its better than northwest

The only real shower activity at the moment is west od Holy head and should in theory be moving south westwards.
Pressure is low but the wind flow is realistically variable and slack.

Cant really comment on what WC is excited about,I'm not about to snow on anyones parade.
I'll help by saying the general flow is north south.

Temp still dropping 1.5c now and its still daylight-thats positive and its mostly cloudy.

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote:

Weathercheck that looks great BUT the wind is northerly for us. That will have implications for Wales but do you really see snow showers effecting us?

Its wind rotating round a PL feature darkman??:D

This is a very exciting turn of events one of the best scenarios for us
here on the east coast.. Nobody can predict where it will go but that
gives a rough estimate at its progression!

There very very nice charts but its up to the gods!

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

By the way if you look at the report from my Davis above the wind direction has changed to North northeast

It's currently north east

Ok only 3mph but its better than northwest

The only real shower activity at the moment is west od Holy head and should in theory be moving south westwards.
Pressure is low but the wind flow is realistically variable and slack.

Cant really comment on what WC is excited about,I'm not about to snow on anyones parade.
I'll help by saying the general flow is north south.

Temp still dropping 1.5c now and its still daylight-thats positive and its mostly cloudy.

Earthman.. its a projected polar low in the Irish sea tomorrow 12z:D !!

Anyway im RAMPING at quite a speed:v:

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Weathercheck that looks great BUT the wind is northerly for us. That will have implications for Wales but do you really see snow showers effecting us?

Tend to agree.
It has wales wrote all over it.
However, it does put us back into Tuesdays scenario where we get some showers but enough showers? Thats a 64k question.I'd imagine not.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

Earthman.. its a projected polar low in the Irish sea tomorrow 12z:D !!

Anyway im RAMPING at quite a speed:v:

Well WC.
I could be wrong but I'm old enough to have seen a few polar lows in the Irish sea that tracked close to the East coast and didnt affect wales.
I hope I'm wrong but this one should track close to or over wales so it will have a limited effect if any on us.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Earthman.. its a projected polar low in the Irish sea tomorrow 12z:D !!

Anyway im RAMPING at quite a speed:v:

I know what yuor talking about WC, for instance the violent storms a couple of years back. However we were on the windward side of that. Certainly could beef up showers alright however we will have to wait and see;)

ninebeanrows

Earthman wrote:

Tend to agree.
It has wales wrote all over it.
However, it does put us back into Tuesdays scenario where we get some showers but enough showers? Thats a 64k question.I'd imagine not.

have faith this is my last punt of the winter and im going to send you all into touch:D

ninebeanrows

Developing PL to north of Scotland

http://www.west-cheshire.ac.uk/weather/d2a.asp

As soon as its curvature becomes clear then we can make a bet
at where it will end up...

LookingFor

It'd be nice if we even got just a couple of bigger showers out of it.

But more immediately, a E/NE breeze tonight? What are the chances of some activity tonight blowing in?

ninebeanrows

LookingFor wrote:

It'd be nice if we even got just a couple of bigger showers out of it.

But more immediately, a E/NE breeze tonight? What are the chances of some activity tonight blowing in?

With the approach of the wave from the Atlantic activity in the Irish will
be limited until circa 3-6am;)

LookingFor

Makes sense, Cheers.

BTW, there's much better satellite imagery available here: http://saturn.unibe.ch/rsbern/noaa/dw/realtime/current/n1bcurr.jpg, as Earthman pointed out yesterday. Though I can't tell what's significant in that and what's not

darkman2

NI metoffice mentions 'an increasing risk of more prolonged snow showers pushing south tomorrow'

LookingFor

darkman2 wrote:

NI metoffice mentions 'an increasing risk of more prolonged snow showers pushing south tomorrow'

Echos Met Eireann a bit, just saw this now:

"Heavy wintry showers spreading Southwards to many parts tomorrow - falls of snow possible, mainly in the North and Northwest. "

And for Dublin:

"Very cold. Frost and fog largely clearing. But wintry showers pushing down gradually from the North"

ninebeanrows

Well GFS pushes for 4-6mm of precip along the east coast tomorrow
Which would lead to 6-8cm's of snow.. this is with the 0.5 grid;)

SpitfireIV

So the east coast could be in with a chance, will these showers (if they come) reach inland (ie me in Carlow ) or are they likely to be confined to the coast?

ninebeanrows

Really depends but i would have to say your less likely to get as much
as the east.. But in these siutuations its very hit and miss!

SpitfireIV

Cheers WC, I understand, ah well.......I've been let down before, one more time wont hurt :rolleyes:

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Really depends but i would have to say your less likely to get as much
as the east.. But in these siutuations its very hit and miss!

If the East gets something. It could come off. Another method would be for showers to simply push south from NI in a very prolonged form. It would be weakened tough by the time it reached us.

Takeshi_Kovacs

We had a very cold morning down here, -3.5 at 7.00 am, and there was a very thick fog hovering over Tralee and surrounding areas,Although once it only extended as far as the start of the Dingle peninsula.
The view back to Brandon mountain was impressive.. there was a huge amount of snow dumped on both the eastern and western flanks, in actual fact Mount Eagle (most westerly summit in Ireland) was covered from top to bottom...

Carrauntuohil and surrounding peaks stretching all the way down to Glenbeigh all had a lot of snow cover. Unfortunately all low lying snow has melted, although i wonder what are the chances that this system to the south west has for dumping a few cm's .??

ninebeanrows

Go the EAGLE:D

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

Go the EAGLE:D

WHAT!? WHAT!? WHAT DID I MISS!!!:rolleyes: