Easterly ( Bitterly cold Paddys Day )

Snowbie

If only it were to be true,i think we are jinked in this part of Eire,cant see what we can expect by week end only cold clear weather and maybe sleet.Dont expect what uk got to be heading our way this week,just crisp and cold im afraid:mad: . But i will still cross my fingers and hope for any surprise.:(

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

If only it were to be true,i think we are jinked in this part of Eire,cant see what we can expect by week end only cold clear weather and maybe sleet.Dont expect what uk got to be heading our way this week,just crisp and cold im afraid:mad: . But i will still cross my fingers and hope for any surprise.:(

That flow WOULD bring heavy snow showers especially to the Eastern halve of the country. SSTs are at their lowest. Snow even on the coast.;) (next weekend that is)

By the way even right now the East coast is about 4 degree's colder than the bulk of the rest of the country...

ninebeanrows

yea and its ridiculuously cold, windy and wet:(

darkman2

GFS has fallen to the ECM:D

darkman2

:eek:

Being FI I wouldnt be surprised if that NNE was more of an N when it happens ie practically useless.

NNE would be absolutely perfect as would the ECM for the previous day with an E sourced out of a NNE down the North Sea

By the way, the NW snow risk chart for Dublin south to Rosslare coresponding to the chart DM2 posted above is light purple ie almost 100%

Twud be nice if that was +12hrs instead...

darkman2

The ensembles show this run has brought the northerly element in too early. However given the ECM I think we should be confident of a happy medium between the two:)

The UKMO further outlook was updated today and mentioned a Northerly.
So the Easterly will be transient with maybe a day or two of snow showers in the East but the fun quickly transfers then away from Dublin and into Ulster,Sligo ,Mayo and down the west coast again coinciding with the coldest of the polar air.

Pity really.

Oh and while we will probably have Irish sea snow showers for a while, Wales will take the heaviest of them off us and the East will stay dry as the wind swings due north.

Basically a re run of the end of february/start of march.

Danno

The "cold" air never caught the ferry yesterday...

http://www.met.ie/recentweather/yesterday.asp

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

The UKMO further outlook was updated today and mentioned a Northerly.
So the Easterly will be transient with maybe a day or two of snow showers in the East but the fun quickly transfers then away from Dublin and into Ulster,Sligo ,Mayo and down the west coast again coinciding with the coldest of the polar air.

Pity really.

Oh and while we will probably have Irish sea snow showers for a while, Wales will take the heaviest of them off us and the East will stay dry as the wind swings due north.

Basically a re run of the end of february/start of march.

I disagree Earthman. The ECM is excellent for the East and north:D

darkman2

Also snow showers (heavy) Thursday night and Friday;)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

I disagree Earthman. The ECM is excellent for the East and north:D

With me or the UKMO

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

With me or the UKMO

UKMO always goes with the ECM eventually. Tonight I reckon it will fall into line. GFS 12z is better initially but then loses its way completely to become yet another rubbish run:D

I have to ask the question why its rubbish though when it predicts an Atlantic break through and excelent when it doesnt?

Dont take this as a down beat comment-just a realistic one.
Weather will never do what you wish it to do,it will do what it likes

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

I have to ask the question why its rubbish though when it predicts an Atlantic break through and excelent when it doesnt?

Dont take this as a down beat comment-just a realistic one.
Weather will never do what you wish it to do,it will do what it likes

The GFS is not good at handling Greenland blocking. The last northerly the ECM was perfect in its predictions, the GFS was not. P.S the evolution post 168 is not exactly plausible. A high ridging southeast from Greenland taking advantage of a low going west from Iberia when it should be going east?!? ECM has this nailed;)

I admire your faith,but then you want this so dont be let down if it falters after the w/end.

Why wouldnt a low travel westwards...? They often do.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

I admire your faith,but then you want this so dont be let down if it falters after the w/end.

Why wouldnt a low travel westwards...? They often do.

A trough yes, a fully developed low pressure - no. The ECM, if you study it is far more plausible. P.S dont take control run at face value. I said the same thing for last nights 18z. The ensembles will make for interesting reading here:)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

A trough yes, a fully developed low pressure - no. The ECM, if you study it is far more plausible. P.S dont take control run at face value. I said the same thing for last nights 18z. The ensembles will make for interesting reading here:)

I'd have to disagree with that.
I've seen tropical storms (which are fully devoloped LPs's) head East almost as far as Gibralter only to head west again.

That all said , we are talking a week away which realistically is FI.

Yesterday I wasnt expecting all day today(just some of it) to be like it is.
Cold wind and Rain...

ninebeanrows

i took a trip on the dart to town and whooooshh:eek:

Sutton Station was rattled badly, the electrcity went out too as the wind
whistled through the station. (the train time thing went off n stufff)
It seems its only really bad at the coast as
in town its actually quite pleasent. Howth is getting a hammering, i've
seen a few ESB crews out too.;)

lucernarian

I did think that the GFS was good at handling Greenland Anticyclones and that it had a basically good forecast of the week-long northerly. I always though that blocking over Eastern Europe and Scandanavia was more of a problem point for GFS...

Was pretty windy here too over the last 2 hours or so.

Anyway I thought this thread was about this week's almost-nailed easterly rather than next week's pie in the sky so how do things look for a bit of snow along the east coast in the run-up to St. Patrick's Day?

Air would be cold enough for snow but the airstream seems fairly benign and stable. Precipitation could be the problem here and like WC I'm not looking forward to simply a dull, overcast and cold day for Paddy's.

lucernarian

The GFS ensembles are OK. We do not have the operational run on our side but only 2 or 3 runs support the evolution of the OR, also with the lines not progressing below -5. When the ECM comes out soon, we will see which group of ensembles is right:)
I am speaking about the possible northerly next week.

Regarding this week's easterly, I'm dissapointed to see that metcheck does not have sleet or snow falling for Louth at all this week. This is based on the 06Z run though.

Edit: The ECM for 168 is a beauty:

darkman2

12z ECM vindicates my stance on the GFS.:D

P.S Evelyn mentioned the 'snow showers' for the East on thursday and friday.

SpitfireIV

I swore after the last rollercoaster that I'd never come back in here again......sighhh, but alas here I am :rolleyes:

This is mad, the prospect of snow on Saint Patricks day!! , the past few years its been like a summers day on the 17th, seems its gonna be fairly cold this year be there snow or not

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

12z ECM vindicates my stance on the GFS.:D

P.S Evelyn mentioned the 'snow showers' for the East on thursday and friday.

G'way she said wintry showers,heavy wintry showers*


*Using the Met Éireann to standard English translation tool,that means snow showers,heavy snow showers

lucernarian

from the Met wrote:

Both Thursday and Friday – St Patrick’s Day – will bring the risk of showers, especially near the east and southeast coast; these showers increasingly wintry and possibly heavy, or even thundery, at times

A possibility of thundersnow, that could interpreted be.

GFS run so far has diminished the cold pool around the days in question somewhat but the ensembles at 12Z hinted at this already so I wasn't taken by suprise.

Snowbie

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

I swore after the last rollercoaster that I'd never come back in here again......sighhh, but alas here I am :rolleyes:

This is mad, the prospect of snow on Saint Patricks day!! , the past few years its been like a summers day on the 17th, seems its gonna be fairly cold this year be there snow or not

True,Croppy,Paddys day was a Thursday last year and i was in Malahide park(nth Dublin)with my kids,wife and the dog been baked by 18c temps,unbelieveable weather we had,now we could get snow and be back to the same park to build a snowman???????. Well they say March of many weathers.

Gonzo

I think we had snow on paddys day about 7 or 8 years ago... I could be wrong tho...