Easterly ( Bitterly cold Paddys Day )

Dunno about the 17th Gonzo but I'm pretty sure the Eastern half of the country will all see at least some snow over paddies weekend and into the following week probably.

lucernarian

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/brack1a.gif

darkman2

Nice ensembles.




ECM yet another beauty this morning. Gonna get cold and snowy post Saturday:D

yeah nice Met Éireann forecast for snow lovers this morning aswellat 855am

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

yeah nice Met Éireann forecast for snow lovers this morning aswellat 855am

What did they say?:rolleyes:

Heavy wintry showers of course widespread in munster and leinster but especially near Eastern coasts.
They only went as far as sunday.

Time to move up to Sligo after monday Darkman..

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Assuming GFS is right.

Shower snow wont last more than a day I think between showers in the daytime,this late in the year unless they are prolonged and heavy or you are on a hill.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Time to move up to Sligo after monday Darkman..

http://217.160.75.104/wz/pics/Rtavn1741.png

Assuming GFS is right.

Shower snow wont last more than a day I think between showers in the daytime,this late in the year unless they are prolonged and heavy or you are on a hill.

Indeed but the GFS is wrong. Stick with the Euros, they have this nailed:D



P.S I think we will go with NOGAPS now.............................................................only joking! What a great setup.

yeah I agree,that nogaps is lovely.

Wishfull thinking though,we'll have a better idea on thursday/friday as to next week but seriously it is looking text book like the last northerly so showers move to the north and nort west from monday night...

Darkman2,I havent looked at it yet but ,I read another poster suggesting in another place that on this mornings GFS, there were subtle changes in the GFS jet flow suggesting a move towards the ECM output.

Can you look into that,I'm going to be very busy today and might not be able to post much today.

My own personal opinion though is these models are better at bringing on an Easterly but not so good at knowing what to do with it beyond 4 days once it is here.
Perhaps that is the weathers fault presenting so many changing variables.

Earthman

Earthman wrote:

Darkman2,I havent looked at it yet but ,I read another poster suggesting in another place that on this mornings GFS, there were subtle changes in the GFS jet flow suggesting a move towards the ECM output.

Can you look into that,I'm going to be very busy today and might not be able to post much today.

Ah it was Steve Murr,I might have known he'd spot that

Looks good-hopefully for interests sake, the GFS will follow the ECM and the weather says the ECM is right

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Ah it was Steve Murr,I might have known he'd spot that

Looks good-hopefully for interests sake, the GFS will follow the ECM and the weather says the ECM is right

Certainly I will post results of the runs if you want:) Im not supprised at all by this cracking 6z however it is only the control run. Ultimatley the ensembles will tell the full story. I can just imagine the troughs etc in the flow and lp very close by. A real improvement on previous runs here.:D

BTW I say its a great run not because it gives us widespread snow showers (which it dosnt) but because its more toward the ECM.

darkman2

Now heres the question. Where is likely to be affected?. Obviously the North but there is a good chance of troughs and the odd polar low and possibly showers clipping the East coast.



http://www.meteociel.org/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-168.GIF

-6 - -8 quite widely on the ECM.