Snow on paddys day?!

darkman2

Did they even mention the more prolonged stuff? What did they say:rolleyes:

lucernarian

No mention of prolonged snow sadly. Just stuff about wintry showers, but the Eagle did say that showers would not be confined to the east coast. Was a reasonable forecast for snow lovers.

Snowbie

To_be_confirmed wrote:

No mention of prolonged snow sadly. Just stuff about wintry showers, but the Eagle did say that showers would not be confined to the east coast. Was a reasonable forecast for snow lovers.

The Eagle said mostly on high ground,not goin to be very optimistic on this as this is a start of a new cold spell and the ground has recovered in temp since our last disapointment.
NOTHING will settle on grond below 500ft,depending on how heavy it is falling.
DP have to be low too,this should be the case but dont expect schools to close or to be snowed in from this,we might get a few flakes but it is only a trough line crossing us,not a polar low,some places on the east coast will miss a shower entirely,but fingers crossed still.

BigCon

I just love how unpredictable the Irish weather is.
On Paddy's Day 1999 I got sunburnt in Dublin (must have been 20C+) .
This year it looks as if we're going to get snow the day before :rolleyes:.

p.s. Does anyone know if next Sunday will be dry?

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

hehehe i liked those charts ALOT:D

on the Met forecast:D

snow for the east, Midlands and south on Thursday:D

Yes we are now doomed.
Every single time WC goes for snow we dont get anything other than a wet slush slop and usually nothingness.






please note I'm assuming he has a hex on snow and he can do nothing about it

lucernarian

Yes he can do something about it; he could zip it until after we get the snowfall!:p

I wish that the inhabitants of East Ireland had some proper snow. I've been waiting for it for over five years now. Some people in eastern areas have been waiting even longer I believe. I hope that this time, the winds of fortune will blow from the northeast.:)

Quiet on here

Would it be because the ECM I just saw had a Northwesterly for Tuesday...

darkman2

Lets hope our 'event' is on the 18z for Thursday and lower temps:D

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Quiet on here

Would it be because the ECM I just saw had a Northwesterly for Tuesday...

ECM tonight is brilliant. Prolonged potent northerly and on Sunday sub -8 temps and a northeasterly:D

ninebeanrows

It does look their could be some snow lying come Thursday Morning

Affecting eastern coasts at first and pretty inland..

Very interesting for Thursday 6z here, i like it cause it will be during
the night/dark so temps will be low and settling may occur:D

Ironically probably the best chance of lying snow in the east all winter:eek: :rolleyes:

Darkman2

Darkman2 wrote:

ECM tonight is brilliant. Prolonged potent northerly and on Sunday sub -8 temps and a northeasterly

With nothing much for Dublin or the East like the last one and with the completely sheltering element of a north west component. Great for Wales and Donegal though


So to summarise now that the ECM has followed the GFS and not the other way around and adding in a bit of the Eagles forecast tonight...

Wintry showers on thursday delivering wet snow to some in the East with a temporary covering untill the sun comes out and melts any light covering rather quickly.
Some people will only see rain or sleet or hail and no covering.
This could be a majority of people.

Showers confined to the coasts on the w/end proper where they could still be wintry especially on high ground at night.
There may be a pep up of showers everywhere on Monday but with most of the snow on high ground.
From Tuesday the East of the country dries out completely after a damp squib of an effort at snow but mostly sleet.

Then the North and north west get a real icey blast with the snow becoming increasingly common to lower levels there and the showers because of the instability in the north northwesterly becoming heavy with the odd few escaping maybe as far as Dublin as a tease.

Meanwhile Eileeen Magner is seen reporting from a Sligo and Donegal white out again in her RTÉ 4wd...

I think thats a fair assessment.

Last nights and the previous evenings banter about a north easterly which by this winters standards was always model wise firmly in FI was always never more than wishfull thinking (and people letting their heart rule their common sense/experience) or rather a pipe dream

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

It does look their could be some snow lying come Thursday Morning

Affecting eastern coasts at first and pretty inland..

Very interesting for Thursday 6z here, i like it cause it will be during
the night/dark so temps will be low and settling may occur:D

Ironically probably the best chance of lying snow in the east all winter:eek: :rolleyes:

Low temps all day. Only reaching 2 -3 degrees on the east coast. 1 or 2 C inland;)

However you will have to be up early. 6 - 8 hours precip max:)

lucernarian

Do you expect six or eight hours of snow from this? I can't imagine more prolonged snow falling on Thursday morning.

I cant either

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

I cant either

You cant see it lasting 6 hours? Thats what the GFS is saying. The ensembles say that aswell. 06hrs 12hrs roughly;)

ninebeanrows

i for one will be happy to see some falling snow:D

And with it expected here around 5am 6z It should hopefully accumalate!

I'd be happy with 2cm's enough to roll up a few balls of snow and make a snowman:D

Like last year on March 5th or so:D

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

i for one will be happy to see some falling snow:D

And with it expected here around 5am 6z It should hopefully accumalate!

I'd be happy with 2cm's enough to roll up a few balls of snow and make a snowman:D

Like last year on March 5th or so:D

The temps at 6am:)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

You cant see it lasting 6 hours? Thats what the GFS is saying. The ensembles say that aswell. 06hrs 12hrs roughly;)

Hang on a second now...

Reality check you are picking and choosing again
Cherry picking.

Practically 5 minutes ago you were saying how the GFS was rubbish at this and that it would follow the ECM into an almost never ending NE nirvana.

Now its to be trusted with its rain/snow fall predictions just because its what you want...

Large tumbler of salt for Darkman2

For what its worth,I'd expect lots of showers on thursday but not a merged prolonged spell.

darkman2

18z looks quite potent:D

Different run so not a like for like comparison.

Has it changed again,I havent seen it yet.

Has it got rid of the NW component?

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Hang on a second now...

Reality check you are picking and choosing again
Cherry picking.

Practically 5 minutes ago you were saying how the GFS was rubbish at this and that it would follow the ECM into an almost never ending NE nirvana.

Now its to be trusted with its rain/snow fall predictions just because its what you want...

Large tumbler of salt for Darkman2

For what its worth,I'd expect lots of showers on thursday but not a merged prolonged spell.

I never said the GFS was 'rubbish'. I said it dosnt handle GL blocking very well. BTW if you are looking at the 18z you will see the GFS coming into line nicely with ECM now we are closer to the time.:mad:

darkman2

18z is amazing:D GaleForce northerly on Tuesday:eek:

Thats actually more of a NNE which is much better

By the way dont use the angry symbols here.
This is a discussion, the idea of which is for posters to reason their thoughts...Not to get Angry because others might justifiably or otherwise see something different.

Now if the 18z follows the Earlier ECM all well and good, the 12z is what my last comments were based on.

All comments are usually based on a run unless otherwise stated...

lucernarian

I posted the 12Z ECMWF chart in the other thread. That chart shows northerly winds instead of northeasterly winds.

Snowbie

Earthman and DM2, use are rapped up on these charts,listen guys, any forecast from 24hrs ahead is only 73% accurate and falls generously thereafter.
The charts you are looking at and getting your info are quite spectacular,but only representing a Easterly direction backing NE,N and maybe NNW in time.
Meaning a cold direction,even at this time of year.
Snow if any from any showers will occur at higher elev and only settle at higher elev with a few flakes at lower levels but NOT settling.
We will not get a SNOW EVENT any where in the East only showers.There is a trough line of showers to move west and thereafter few more showers building over the Irish sea and that is all.Few if any will see these showers,so people dont get your hopes up for builing snowmen.

Yes precip will fall on Thursday but we will only know for sure by ths time tomorrow if it will happen and not untill then.Weather is so unpredictible that even the pro`s get it wrong(charts).Wait untill 24hrs time to see if anything will occur.

Remember our infamous polar low last week dumping 4 - 5 inches here on the coast and inland east,what happened,nothing and every body got their hopes up but to know avail.
Remember 73% accurate for forecasting 24hrs ahead

snowbie

You've more or less said what I said in a post above

http://pie.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=51043224&postcount=42

BBC weather at 1030 had very little precip over Ireland on thursday.
But then thats not unusual-I had 8 or 10 inches here valentines week in feb '91 and the BBC forecasts had little or nothing over Ireland then (They never bothered forecasting Irish sea showers which is what gave the fall-it fell in a 30 mile stretch from south of Gorey to south of Wicklow town)

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

snowbie

You've more or less said what I said in a post above

http://pie.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=51043224&postcount=42

BBC weather at 1030 had very little precip over Ireland on thursday.
But then thats not unusual-I had 8 or 10 inches here valentines week in feb '91 and the BBC forecasts had little or nothing over Ireland then (They never bothered forecasting Irish sea showers which is what gave the fall-it fell in a 30 mile stretch from south of Gorey to south of Wicklow town)

I dont mean to be argumentative so sry for the angry symbol:) You have the charts in front of you so I reckon you should make your own judgement. TV forcasts are irrelevant with the amount of info we have with the click of a button. It is going to get darn cold:D

I wouldnt say they are irrelevant.
The information in front of us isnt a patch of what is in front of what the Tv met office forecasters have.
they also generally look at the weather for what it is likely to bring and go through a lot of the uncertainty that we do but they make a call with more information and experience than we have usually.

Anyway

Qué sera etc that 18z was very very interesting.Whether it will be what we get is another thing.
One things for sure yeah it will be very very cold

Danno

Is it still going to snow in Laois then?

Snowbie

Earthman wrote:

snowbie

You've more or less said what I said in a post above

http://pie.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=51043224&postcount=42

BBC weather at 1030 had very little precip over Ireland on thursday.
But then thats not unusual-I had 8 or 10 inches here valentines week in feb '91 and the BBC forecasts had little or nothing over Ireland then (They never bothered forecasting Irish sea showers which is what gave the fall-it fell in a 30 mile stretch from south of Gorey to south of Wicklow town)

YOUR DEAD RIGHT,We had six inches right on the coast here too Earthman on the 9 feb and also a blizzard 7 feb 91.Remember that quite well as neither was forecast.
Two snow events in two days was amazing,we also had a blizzard the 4 jan the month before.
The bbc dont take much notice in us anymore except Rob Mclwee,he is very good at presenting,
so it goes down to hope more of the same

P.S that snow on the 9 feb was more widespread than just the SE,parts of meath and kildare and all of dublin were affected,