Snow on paddys day?!

Danno

I think that this one looks a little better than last weeks dead polar low.

It could be still upgraded?

lucernarian

This morning's 00Z GFS run has moved the precipitation for Thursday further south. The 850 hPa temperatures are low enough in northern and eastern areas for snow.:)

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

P.S that snow on the 9 feb 1991 was more widespread than just the SE,parts of meath and kildare and all of dublin were affected,

We had some snow cover from earlier in that week though not as much as other areas but the heavy fall we did get was towards the week end of that week iirc here.
That was a band of showers that came in and sat on the coast from just south of Wicklow town to south of Gorey.
Pretty similar actually to the rainband that sat here last monday(except it had came in off the sea) and kept the snow going from sometime during the night to about lunchtime.It was pretty impressive.

Anyhow I digress.

The trend continues for a northwesterly next week...

We all may move to Sligo or Donegal after Monday (if you dont already live up there)

No sign of ECM's roaring North north Easterly as progged by them in the last week for next week...

But to go back on topic,we should all see at least some wet snow flakes falling on thursday with a temporary covering for some especially in the East and more especially on hills.

Snowbie

Looks like a progression to a more north atlantic air mass rather than polar,less cold but still a chilly directon.
Maybe a short snap in the east,
whats your DP reading Earthman,mines at +2c

Snowbie

Earthman wrote:

We had some snow cover from earlier in that week though not as much as other areas but the heavy fall we did get was towards the week end of that week iirc here.
That was a band of showers that came in and sat on the coast from just south of Wicklow town to south of Gorey.
Pretty similar actually to the rainband that sat here last monday(except it had came in off the sea) and kept the snow going from sometime during the night to about lunchtime.It was pretty impressive.

Anyhow I digress.

Its the best kind of snow,when you least expect it.Spontaneous snow i call it.
Remember Aidain mcnulty,he was on live at 3 saying dry for the afternoon on the Thursday 7th,1 hour later their was a blizzard from the NE.GONE BY THE FRIDAY,Then Saturday 9th playing a bit a footie on the green and started to snow out of nowhere,the flakes were huge due to the fact their was no wind but the depth was great and im on the coast,snow lasted all week on the ground as it chilled the air above it.Pretty impressive especially when one least expects it.More of the same as i hate to take another day off work just to look at the snow. lol

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

Looks like a progression to a more north atlantic air mass rather than polar,less cold but still a chilly directon.
Maybe a short snap in the east,
whats your DP reading Earthman,mines at +2c

+4.7c and an air temp of 6.4c

RH is 89%

Wind is from the north East

The DP's are way too high but they'll drop when the Easterly gets going proper but they wont be as low as they were a few weeks ago by a long shot.
I'd tend to agree with your assessment of the northerly next week,it wont be that potent at all really-wintry yes potently wintry no.
Theres too much of an Atlantic maratime influence in it as opposed to the NE that ECM was codding us all with for next week (:p)

Snowbie

Exactly Earthman,too much influence of mid atlantic in the circulation but there is always room for change again.

Temp at 6.1c
hum 80%
dp at 2.1

Easterely has picked up somewhat here now being it more steady than variable,like this morning,my dp was running at 4.6 at 7 oclock am.DRopped somewhat since then,
Wont be as low as last week as the influence of the sea this time, but should get close to zero,always lower coming from North as it is passing over land and from a generally colder direction.

What we need is Temp 1c,dp -1 and humidity 90% will be a nice comnination of seeing some of the white stuff even settling,we live in hope

darkman2

Nice ECM this morning. GFS is not bad either;)

Snowbie

Our NE might be back on by Monday next

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4a.html

Looks interesting

darkman2

OK first I wat to deal with tomorrow.

We have sub -8 - -10 air arriving around 6 in the morning:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn302.png

Whilst this dosnt mean much for the UK in terms of precip, it means much more here. Its really an explosion of activity due to two very different airmasses coming up against each other. Essentially increased instability along with an abrupt fall in thickness below the 528DAM line. Whilst the start of tonight will feel positively balmy a sharp drop in temperature will occur toward morning:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1817.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2417.png

This will coincide with the arrival of the first meaningful precip on the East coast:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn244.png

For those who perhaps dont know, on the ensembles:



The precip gradient is at the bottom and the scale is on the right (in mm). The spike heading into tomorrow represents our rainfall. Note that the control run is at the low end of this scale (the thick blue line) and is below the mean (the thick white line). So in effect there should be more precip in the Dublin area then the control suggests.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/24_30.gif

Temps are low at this point. Only 3 - 4 C in the Irish sea and struggling at just above freezing in the Northern halve of the country. Anything that falls from the sky at this point is going to be white in nature.

At 12 tomorrow temps are very low. Certainly low enough for at least wet snowfall and the fact hey are even lower in the midlands suggests possibly some lying snow. Sleet is more likely on the East coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3017.png

So definatley snow on hills and away from the East coast for a time at least:)

Thereafter as expected there will be a milder period between Friday and Sunday (although it wont feel mild in East or Northeast brisk winds). The change again comes on Sunday evening.



The floodgates about to open from the north. A cold front pushing into the Northern halve of the country may be of snow on its backedge over mountains. Note the control run for the 6z is not the coldest run on the ensembles so things should improve further later today.

http://217.160.176.95/wz/pics/brack3a.gif

528DAM coming south fast:D

Dont be fooled by the apparent slackness in the Northerly airflow the 6z introduces. Even (and I do think the 6z is worst case scenario at this stage) if it came off it is still potent and bitterly cold and numerous troughs and fronts passing through (notably from West to East) giving heavy snowfall for most. For example:

http://www.n-w-cirrus.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20060315/06/180/uksnowcover.png

Another feature next week will be severe frost and Ice particularly in the Midlands, North and West.

Very interesting times ahead:)

Also the 6z control run is the mildest around the 21st

Snowbie

But DM2,we have a drier airmass feeding into a relatively damp airmass over us now meaning low cloud,cant see explosive precip from this at this time.

ninebeanrows

6z OP was a low precip outlier for Dublin the lowest infact..

Showers should kick into the east and fall as snow from circa 3am tomorrow:D

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

But DM2,we have a drier airmass feeding into a relatively damp airmass over us now meaning low cloud,cant see explosive precip from this at this time.

You will when the two different airmasses meet. Basically whilst it looks on the marginal side of good for the East coast, the further south and west you are the more likely the precip will be of snow. NW precip ensembles (control run is top right)http://www.net-weather.co.uk/index.cgi?action=ensviewer;type=panel;#

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote:

6z OP was a low precip outlier for Dublin the lowest infact..

Showers should kick into the east and fall as snow from circa 3am tomorrow:D

Hi WC. Given your area I would be cautious. Maybe more sleety wet stuff for the East coast early in the morning. The real action will be across the southern halve of the country;)

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote:

Hi WC. Given your area I would be cautious. Maybe more sleety wet stuff for the East coast early in the morning. The real action will be across the southern halve of the country;)

You dont really trust to a point the GFS precip model do you?

They will be a decent feed of showers off the sea for the whole
coast and the trough may give precip for the south too..

I personally wouldnt expect much 50 miles away from the east coast:)

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

Hi WC. Given your area I would be cautious. Maybe more sleety wet stuff for the East coast early in the morning. The real action will be across the southern halve of the country;)

I'm expecting snow showers at some stage but nothing more than a sloppy wet mess.
I'd agree with your anaylsis as regards the 2 air masses meeting.
The air over Ireland is already tempered but a much colder stream will arive and colide in the morning and hence the instability.

Contrary to what WC says,I'd expect inland convection to occur as well esecially further south.

darkman2

Met.ie: Tonight will be mainly dry, with a few clear spells, but cloud will persist in most parts. There will be some scattered showers, chiefly in Eastern areas, where they may turn to sleet or snow by morning, especially over high ground. Minimum temperatures minus 1 to 4 Celsius, coldest where breaks in cloud occur, with a risk of frost and icy patches:)

hmmmmm interesting.

Gonzo

temps are currently 4C in Belfast, 5 to 6C on the east coast and 9 to 11C on the west coast so things are starting to change already.

Snowbie

Heavy Drizzle here,temp 5.8c and falling DP 2c

Scubadevils

I've been in Hamburg since Sunday so it was a bit of a surprise to come back to hear there is some snow potential again! Hamburg was COLD, really, really cold! I actually wanted to get away from it after only a day or so. When I got there on Sunday around 1pm it had been snowing the night before and there was several inches of powder snow. Rivers and ponds etc all frozen solid, huge icicles hanging from buildings (see attached pic). I left this morning and it hadnt snowed since but there was a huge amount still on the ground and a lot of untreated roads were covered in compacted iced snow. Other pic from outside hotel window this morning (some snow gone from roof tops) and also from train window yesterday.
Anyway, the German weather this morning was that it was due to get somewhat milder. Is what they had pushing over to us? (I know a far less potent version).

ninebeanrows

cold air slowly clawing in..

DP down to -1c in Ronaldsway..

We could be talking snowfall from 4am:)

darkman2

A tasty GFS run for snowfall. As for tomorrow a bit of wet snow in the East and South.

darkman2

darkman2 wrote:

A tasty GFS run for snowfall. As for tomorrow a bit of wet snow in the East and South.

Agreed about tomorrow.


Now whats tasty about the 12z?
Has it got rid of the NW element? I havent looked yet.
If its still got the NW element its not tasty at all.

Felixdhc

Felixdhc wrote:

Anyway, the German weather this morning was that it was due to get somewhat milder. Is what they had pushing over to us? (I know a far less potent version).

No what we are getting is initially sourced well north of there and then from the North entirely.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote:

cold air slowly clawing in..

DP down to -1c in Ronaldsway..

We could be talking snowfall from 4am:)

Still ridiculous at m2
Air temp 6.2c and ewpoint 3.3c

still thats colder than here:rolleyes:

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Agreed about tomorrow.


Now whats tasty about the 12z?
Has it got rid of the NW element? I havent looked yet.
If its still got the NW element its not tasty at all.

Oh but it is. Frontal systems bringing widespread heavy snow at times particularly in the Northern half of the country.

Darkman could you go into a bit more detail on that please.
Are you talking about whats been on the fax charts for monday for a while now?
Surely that a mainly rain at lower levels event untill the colder air catches up with it.