Snow on paddys day?!

15-03-2006 7:53pm

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4a.gif

The thickness is above 528 there,the dp's are borderline arent they and the temps certainly on the coast and at lower levels are not low enough?

darkman2 · 15-03-2006 7:56pm

Earthman wrote:

Darkman could you go into a bit more detail on that please.
Are you talking about whats been on the fax charts for monday for a while now?
Surely that a mainly rain at lower levels event untill the colder air catches up with it.

No, the fax charts have absolutely nothing to do with the GFS. They are interpretations of UKMO raw data and are subject to major change every 12 hours at 132.

You can see from the GFS precip charts where the fronts are. Use the precip type charts if it makes it easier. For example from the 12z: http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/162_30.gif The up to date charts can be viewed at www2.wetter3.de.

P.S I dont see any snow coming from the front on Monday:) Im talking about after Monday.

Scubadevils · 15-03-2006 7:58pm

well the RTE weather certainly wouldnt inspire confidence in seeing snow tomorrow at lower levels

darkman2 · 15-03-2006 8:03pm

Felixdhc wrote:

well the RTE weather certainly wouldnt inspire confidence in seeing snow tomorrow at lower levels

You have to make a decision on who you believe. The GFS clearly says snow or sleet tomorrow morning:)

rart_06031612_1512.gif?a04cba56ab4a3884ce003ed8f46adaa0

rart_06031612_1512.gif?a04cba56ab4a3884ce003ed8f46adaa0

Danno · 15-03-2006 8:10pm

Looks good for Laois anyways!

ninebeanrows · 15-03-2006 8:21pm

Showers are building in the south Irish sea now very expansively too

Just gonna miss here though if they push inland;)

Scubadevils · 15-03-2006 9:09pm

darkman2 wrote:

You have to make a decision on who you believe. The GFS clearly says snow or sleet tomorrow morning:)

ah sure we'll see when we get up in the morning

darkman2 · 15-03-2006 9:48pm

Widespread heavy snow if ECM at 168 comes off:D

Funny thing is this chart is actually quite similar to the GFS for the same time:

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006031512!!chart.gif

msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!168!Europe!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2006031512!!chart.gif

Of course the East is in the milder sector but certainly an interesting setup;)

15-03-2006 10:11pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Showers are building in the south Irish sea now very expansively too

Just gonna miss here though if they push inland;)

They've pushed inland here.
It's raining.

15-03-2006 10:19pm

darkman2 wrote:

No, the fax charts have absolutely nothing to do with the GFS. They are interpretations of UKMO raw data and are subject to major change every 12 hours at 132.

You can see from the GFS precip charts where the fronts are. Use the precip type charts if it makes it easier. For example from the 12z: http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/162_30.gif The up to date charts can be viewed at www2.wetter3.de.

P.S I dont see any snow coming from the front on Monday:) Im talking about after Monday.

Ok I thought you meant Monday and tbh,I'm too busy at the moment to be totally up to speed (but that wouldnt take long when I get round to it) So good you've clarified what you are talking about.
I'd expect nothing but rain based on that fax chart except on the highest of ground.
And yes I do know that a UKMO fax chart is based on UKMO raw data and not the GFS.(Though having said that other model data including the GFS are not ignored)

Incidently those precip charts have a low moving down the Irish sea rather similar to the one at the start of march and you know what happened there...

Snowbie · 16-03-2006 12:41am

Confidence on seeing snow tomorrow has all but gone.The odd flake to be had in the heavier showers possible but i wnot expecting to see snow cover.
Temp 4.6c
DP 1.4
79% hum

It is just not that cold enough any where as of yet,untill a dramatic cold pool of air sweeps in across us well then of course it may get interesting,but im not holding my breath:(

16-03-2006 1:01am

Even warmer and a higher RH here but we are coudy and misty and have had a few heavyish rain showers-probably more than Dublin.

Temp is a long way off snow here with a dp of 4c and air temp of 5.1c

Snowbie · 16-03-2006 1:04am

4.4c temp
0.8 dp
77%

starting to clear a little a bit here

SpitfireIV · 16-03-2006 1:09am

MetCheck has rain for most of the early hours here, then turning to snow later. The snow risk charts on NetWeather show the same thing, no risk of snow for another 10-12 hours or so.

Whats changed all of a sudden?? From what I see here sounds like its a no go again.

16-03-2006 1:23am

Snowbie wrote:

4.4c temp
0.8 dp
77%

starting to clear a little a bit here

I'm not going to bother going out to look but I see the temp is 4.8c now and the dp is down to 3.4c

Thats a quick drop in 5 or 10 mins

Danno · 16-03-2006 1:32am

5.5c

Dry and Overcast. Almost calm too.

Danno · 16-03-2006 1:35am

Also, how come Marathon Gas Platform is reporting near 15c?

16-03-2006 1:36am

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

Whats changed all of a sudden?? From what I see here sounds like its a no go again.

If this was january we'd be right but its not,its april in a forthnight.

Comments earlier in this thread while admirably upbeat and positive were based on earlier runs.
We've now had a forecast for tomorrow from the Beeb and RTÉ that indicates a sleety mess and certainly not 6hrs of snowfall.
A little bit of pessimism has creeped in.

As for next week there is a LP that might zip down the Irish sea but the last one that did that delivered practically nothing-though Gonzo got a couple of hrs of heavy snow and a temporary light covering as did Dublin in parts.

This looks like a repeat at a stretch which is barrel scraping excitement wise if thats the case.
Hard to say though yet...

16-03-2006 1:40am

Danno wrote:

Also, how come Marathon Gas Platform is reporting near 15c?

Thats a wierd one alright.
Dunno its exact location but that does not sound right

Maybe its a typo and should read - 14.1 c

Danno · 16-03-2006 1:56am

Nope, not a typo. It was 14.6c, then 14.2c now 13.8c.

Wierd. Must be the Gas burner to the east of the sensor!

Gonzo · 16-03-2006 2:05am

sky news is giving rain/sleety mix for all of the uk and ireland over next few days with snow restricted to the high ground, I think winter is just too far gone... even if this happend 2 or 3 weeks ago it wouldve made a difference. Temperatures will be around 4 to 7C for this cold snap in general.

ninebeanrows · 16-03-2006 8:48am

and you believe SKY:eek:

Anyway conditions atm and for the next 24 hours are near perfect for snowfall.

DUB A reporting 2c with a DP of -3c

Showers getting going in the north Irish sea beginning to head into Down,
Louth and Meath.

ninebeanrows · 16-03-2006 9:19am

Just to confirm that it is cold enough to snow..

Current Weather : Light SNOW:D

ninebeanrows · 16-03-2006 9:22am

ok just a few flakes there

But it was definately snow!

And its started again

Should get interesting as the Irish sea is alive:D

SpitfireIV · 16-03-2006 9:33am

Something upbeat

...thanks for that WC

ninebeanrows · 16-03-2006 9:34am

I have to go but its presently light snowing and sticking to surfaces:eek:

ciaran76 · 16-03-2006 9:40am

Snowing in Swords now. It won't stick though.

16-03-2006 9:43am

LoL its dry here but the temp is 2.7c and a dp of -3c .

From the radar it looks like most of the precip is going to head towards Dublin and north of Dublin.

So much for yesterdays GFS precip charts :rolleyes:

Danno · 16-03-2006 9:52am

2.8c. Overcast.

Snowbie · 16-03-2006 10:40am

Earthman wrote:

LoL its dry here but the temp is 2.7c and a dp of -3c .

From the radar it looks like most of the precip is going to head towards Dublin and north of Dublin.

So much for yesterdays GFS precip charts :rolleyes:

I told you about those charts the other evening,so spectacular but noone can predict were showers will hit,currently snowing here light to moderate at times,not sticking.
Temp 2.9
DP -4.4

Thats a nice drop in the DP since last night,now that surprised me totally.
Sea looks interesting