The cold just goes on and on and on ?

darkman2

ECM is great tonight. Sub -8 at 144hrs and easterlies at 120:D

120 snow probable on Northern flank

144 isotherm:D

darkman2

18z brings snow to Ireland and Northern England post 120 and then brings a right dumping for Ireland, Wales and N England at 150.

Danno

How much of a "dumping" are we looking at then?

SpitfireIV

From Met Eireann:

"3 Day Outlook:
Mostly dry and very cold on Monday night with a widespread frost. Tuesday and Wednesday will be largely dry with bright spells each day. There is a chance of a few light showers, however. Winds will be light to moderate, mainly easterly. The nights will be cold and frosty. After a dry start on Thursday, some wet and very windy weather will spread from the south."

Wet and windy? What sort of wet? Rain ....or snow

I noticed on the 6-1 weather Evelyn didnt go into any great detail about what was coming and said that there was still uncertainty about the end of the week.

Snowbie

Its depending on how the jet is how north or south it will be by thursday
,the futher south of Ireland the better the chance for snow,closer to ireland or north it will be rain

Villain

Just watching Ireland AM on TV3 and its snowing in the background wherever they are filiming the garden section???

Villain

ROFL, ok as I said above it was snowing in the garden this morning that Ireland AM were filming in. Now 5 minutes after the gardening piece was finished they went back to the same garden to get the weather forecast and guess what he says "we will see some light rain showers this morning".

Eh look behind you those white flakes are snow not rain, seriously like WTF???

silverski

I was watching Ireland AM broadcasting from Bray, Just beside our house. And they seem to prerecord some of those outside broadcasts..

That Gardening one this morning must have been done on Thursday.

Villain

I thought that might have been it too but the weather was from the same garden??

darkman2

6z is amazing. Loads of snow for most. Thursday into Friday should see snow for many of us. Accumulations are likely too. However on the East coast sleet is likely to be in there too so more marginal here. Plenty of attempts at the breakdown on this run giving literally bucketloads of snow:D

Wibbler

darkman2 wrote:

6z is amazing. Loads of snow for most. Thursday into Friday should see snow for many of us. Accumulations are likely too. However on the East coast sleet is likely to be in there too so more marginal here. Plenty of attempts at the breakdown on this run giving literally bucketloads of snow:D

I'll believe it when I see it, Darkman. :rolleyes:

This is my first full winter on this board. I disovered it just prior to last Feb's event. I don't know what previous winters have been like for ramping but this one has been some rollercoaster.

I wonder if I'd not discovered this board, would this winter have stood out.

Well, the temp today here didnt even reach 6c for a max,its currently 5.6c so it might be 3.6c in a day or two.
You would want the DP to go down to -2c or more before a rain band would become a snow band in that sort of temperature profile.
I'm doubtfull except on high ground.

SpitfireIV

Darkman2, if this event comes off we'll have to call it after you "The Darkman Snow Event" you seem to be fierce determined about this one, hope its pays off now.


http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Carlow&day=6

Me likey!!

Those met check forecasts are rubbish by the way.
I dont know why they bother doing them...

SpitfireIV

But......it said............:( .......snow? :rolleyes:

darkman2

CroppyBoy1798 wrote:

But......it said............:( .......snow? :rolleyes:

Hi CB, I hope it comes off. 12z control run is not good really. Plenty of time yet though;)

It said snow because each mcheck forecast is entirely based on one GFS run.
It changes with the GFS runs.

So basically you are reading a 5day forecast based on FI

darkman2

UKMO is out and far too mild for snow:rolleyes:

lucernarian

So how are things shaping up for this event? Metcheck looks insane for Friday, only 4 days away. What is so incorrect about Metcheck, Earthman?:D













Please don't take my hope away...:)

yeah I saw the UKMO

As regards metcheck

It's simple every run is different and not to be trusted 6 days in advance of the time its out

Ergo metcheck is not to be trusted.

It's the same as you saying the 06z is good for snow here but when metcheck is updated to reflect the 12z, it will have temps of 6 or 8c and rain in carlow next w/end

So what use is that type of computer generated forecast?

Answer-No use whatsoever.

Proper forecasts need to be tweeked by human input to be honest with you.

darkman2

One by one the models are falling away and snow is looking increasingly unlikely. Im not ruling anything in or out yet though as things could be different again tomorrow;)

Snowbie

It is different today from yesterday as we are getting closer to the event itself and will be different tomorrow with an increase in Temp,maybe snow for the high ground and wet snow lower down,its Northern flank of this system is the one to watch,how far north or south will it go?.Dont trust Charts as the are a pure guestimate, forecasts are only 73% accurate 24hrs ahead.Charts will give you a rough picture of the air mass we will encounter and the surface pressure we will encounter,very hard to predict temp from a few days ahead again a gestimate.Wedensday is the key day and ONLY THEN will we know 73% if we will get snow on the northern flank if it moves north and then east through the middle part of the country.WEDENSDAY for sure we will know.

SpitfireIV

Hmm, all that snow on Metcheck has suddenly turned to rain, and the temps have risen dramatically.....:( . Just goes to show I guess that they do follow the model runs as I was told.....drats!!

Gonzo

currently some snow grains falling outside in the breeze, any chance of proper snow showers today?

ninebeanrows

At last mild weather is set to return! from this Weekend temps may reach 13c:eek:

Gonzo

Gonzo wrote:

currently some snow grains falling outside in the breeze, any chance of proper snow showers today?

It's possible
dewpoints certainly support it and pressure is low

currently 4.7c dp -2c here

1013.5mb steady.

ninebeanrows

but mild by the weekend;)

At last some 13 and 14c figures:D

We've had some snow grains here this afternoon and some snow flurries this evening.
Bitter in the NE wind gusting at times above 20mph at ground level
Temp is 4c with the dp at -1.3c

The sooner the better summer comes to be honest.
Sick of this-leave it till Dec or jan please