Aerlingus shares

pclancy

DublinWriter wrote:

not until the initial required investment in the Trans-Atlantic fleet has been sorted.

...plus there's also the long-term problem with oil shortages.

QUOTE]

I was just going to say that, dont they have to replace the ageing A330s that are really looking poor inside compared to Virgin and BA? Plus the regional fleet is getting on a bit as well compared to Ryanair's. Lots of investment needed in the company and lots to do with its workforce.

Would i be wrong in saying that if they did spend a lot and replace the fleet, the company value and therefore share price would go up?

Bluehair

pclancy wrote:

I was just going to say that, dont they have to replace the ageing A330s that are really looking poor inside compared to Virgin and BA? Plus the regional fleet is getting on a bit as well compared to Ryanair's.

One of the problems with Aer Lingus as a prospective share purchase is there's an awful lot of utter bollox out there about the company.

E.G. the oldest of the 330s is around 11 years old and in fine shape though could do with the installation of seat-back tvs in all of them (two already have). The 'regional fleet' of A320s/A321s is only a few years old after they disposed of the last of the 737s/146s/F50s over the last few years.

Overall the fleet is one of the youngest and most efficient in the world, it doesn't need replacing but it does need adding to if they want to expand!

Aer Lingus has undergone dramatic changes over the last number of years, some tough but all good for the long term profitability/health of the company.

The key is future growth and there is massive potential both for long-haul and short-haul in this, even with Ryanair competition.

I reckon it's worth a long-term punt.

secret_squirrel

pclancy wrote:

Plus the regional fleet is getting on a bit as well compared to Ryanair's.

Apart from the fact that since Ryanair are still taking delivery of their new fleet which means currently they've probably got the youngest fleet in the world, you're wrong.

Aer Lingus have taken delivery of 17 new Aircraft in their short haul fleet over the last 18 months-ish making it also very young indeed.

Nemotoid

SouperComputer wrote:

I remeber eircom alright. I think AL is a more successfull company though. Im just curious to see what the IPO will be, although I fear it might be too high.QUOTE]


Given that the Greencore issue was priced at the lower end of the range and Eircom at the upper range I would invisage the state pursuing a mid-tier valuation this time...with an election next year they certainly don't need the fall-out of another Eircom fiasco...and they don't exactly have to account in as much detail/manner for the funds obtained as would be required during a "normal" share placing...if they price to allow for upside of 10-15% that's about all is going to be in it for short-medium term investors.

pclancy

Ah I thought they were still using the old 737-500s. Well in that case yes fleet expansion would be a good idea. The 330s do need a bit of modernising, the one i went to JFK on recently wasnt in great nick inside at all.

DublinWriter

pclancy wrote:

Would i be wrong in saying that if they did spend a lot and replace the fleet, the company value and therefore share price would go up?

Yes.

ronbyrne2005

pclancy wrote:

DublinWriter wrote:

not until the initial required investment in the Trans-Atlantic fleet has been sorted.

...plus there's also the long-term problem with oil shortages.

QUOTE]


Would i be wrong in saying that if they did spend a lot and replace the fleet, the company value and therefore share price would go up?

if the money they spend on a new /expanded fleet is well used to make profits in excess of the cost of capital then the shares will increase.just buying a new fleet alone wouldnt add much if anything to value of shares its how these new assets are used that is important.

jdc78

I would doubt they would actually buy new aircraft rather than leasing them... therefore, not much effect as an assets.

ionapaul

Saw a report in the Business Post yesterday that AL will not be paying out dividends - rather will be marketing as a 'growth' stock. That would really put me off investing.

DublinWriter

The following would make me avoid AL like the plague:

1) Current staff pension-fund defecit
2) Current age of transatlantic stock
3) Largely Unionised and militant staff
4) Fuel prices about to go postal in the next five years

I'd only buy if I could get in and out quickly on the IPO if the shares were cheap enough.

Otherwise, avoid.

Macers

DublinWriter wrote:

The following would make me avoid AL like the plague:

1) Current staff pension-fund defecit
2) Current age of transatlantic stock
3) Largely Unionised and militant staff
4) Fuel prices about to go postal in the next five years

I'd only buy if I could get in and out quickly on the IPO if the shares were cheap enough.

Otherwise, avoid.

1) Understand your concern
2) It's a done deal with Airbus now and more being negociated ;p
3) Union is a problem but they're just trying to make sure another Irish Ferries is not going to happen in fairness...
4) In fairness fuel prices effect every airlines so although it does make an impact it does effect everyone...

DublinWriter

Macers wrote:

4) In fairness fuel prices effect every airlines so although it does make an impact it does effect everyone...

Just because it effects the whole sector doesn't mean that AL's share price won't be hit as a consequence.

Macers

DublinWriter wrote:

Just because it effects the whole sector doesn't mean that AL's share price won't be hit as a consequence.

All shares will be hit in fairness - it depends on the companys overheads to see how it copes...

killeoin

Macers wrote:

3) Union is a problem but they're just trying to make sure another Irish Ferries is not going to happen in fairness...

You seem to be painting them in a very good light. Somehow i'd say they are more concered about lining there back pockets rather than anything else.

Macers

killeoin wrote:

You seem to be painting them in a very good light. Somehow i'd say they are more concered about lining there back pockets rather than anything else.

I don't mean to be - honestly. I can understand why you think they are more concered about lining there back pockets however it is a business after all. I'm sure they will be investing in shares or will have options. It is a business afterall...

secret_squirrel

killeoin wrote:

You seem to be painting them in a very good light. Somehow i'd say they are more concered about lining there back pockets rather than anything else.

Since one of their concerns is making up the deficit in the pension fund I suppose you would consider that 'lining their back pockets too' :rolleyes:

Like any negotiation there are real issues and negotiating points, - however you may not like they way the unions are behaving (and I certainly dont) at least some of their points are valid.

Another is share dilution - Aer Lingus workers 'own' 14.9% of the company - why should they accept a dilution of that via another share issue with negotiation?