Irish Open Satelite Hand

handsfree

this really looks like a middle pair trying to take down the blinds, clear call.

ianmc38

I'm guessing Nicky called and got crippled.

Daithio

ianmc38 wrote:

I'm guessing Nicky called and got crippled.

Lol yeah, I'm waiting for the 'I called and he had a set of kings' post.

Ste05

For one thing I don't think this is a clear anything. Be it a Call or Fold, so for all those people saying it's a Clear X, it's certainly not.

Daithio

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

if his style is to move in 110k to win 12k hes not going to be that hard to outplay, no matter what he has, this play is bad.
i would suggest he will continue to overbet pots like this, especially if he gets away with this one.
We have 26 BBs, they wont be going up that fast.
I agree he is probably weak, but i still dont like the call.

Maybe diff if we made it say 25k pre flop, then he called and moved in after the flop, then i would put him on a stop and go, but not here, K6, K7 maybe, KJ maybe.

Remember we have only put 6k in this pot. (and we have 160k)

If I'd raised preflop and then he moved in I would have thought that this would lean me further towards a fold.

Iceman78

I know its a bit late for this now after all the discussion but does anyone agree that Nicky should have just raised if it was folded to him on the small blind with K10.

I think he has played his hand pretty weakly and his show of weakness may have tempted the all in with a middle pair from the other player. I would call here as it looks like the other player is on a steal as too big a bet if he wants a caller. An overbet in this instance would be around 50k as only 12k in pot. The all in bet is a stupid bet whether he had best hand or was on a steal.

Daithio

I don't really like raising with marginal hands from sb to bb. People often resteal from the bb if the sb raises, so generally I think you're better only raising from here with a hand that you will call an all in with. Unless of course you're up against a useless rock.

Norwich Fan Rob

im not disputing thats its likely we are ahead.
I just think this is a hand we can let go, and wait til the next time this guy tries something like this.

IMO if i had to have a bet on villians actual hand, i would pick K7, but im not confident enough about this to lump in another 100k+.

Im more confident he will continue to play in a reckless manner though, until he is caught.

ocallagh

100% call.

He's not happy about his hand. Nicky has obviously been outplaying them in other pots and this guy does not want to play poker with a weak hand. I've seen weaker players make this move a lot. You're all giving him too much respect. Fuzz you say there is no draw... so it can't be a semi bluff. That doesn't matter! A weak player pushes with a pair just as often as they push with a semi bluff IMO. Some of you say why gamble when you're a much better player.. With blinds on the up you will have 15BB's. You require at least 50BBs (some say 100) in order to play proper poker against muppets. Chances are you won't get a better chance. If it was a flat payout I would *consider* folding, but in this scenario it is a clear call.

His range is HUGE here. I wouldn't rule out bottom pair. I can think of about 30 hands he might have, but only a few hands that beat Nicky.

80% of the time you are ahead here. And the other 20% you can still suck out.

I'm guessing that you lost this... because if you won this pot you more than likely would have won that ticket.. and we'd have heard about that by now!!!

wayfarer

I go call. With the blinds the way they are and only one ticket to be won, you have to start gathering chips pretty sharpish, before it turns into a crap shoot. You are very likely to be ahead me thinks, and next blind level you only have 13x the BB so its nearly all-in-or-nothing-stage. Your outplaying ability is worth very little then.

If your opponents see you thinking hard about this decision and folding, a few of them are likely to pick up on the fact that you are unwilling to gamble for all your chips and so start to make similar plays, especially when the blinds become more valuable. No doubt they want to frustrate you as much as you have been frustrating them!

I'm guessing high pocket pair, QQ most likely.

carrigeen

nicky get the f$%£ up its 5 o clock

its like who shot jr

oh the suspense:D

ocallagh

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

im not disputing thats its likely we are ahead.
I just think this is a hand we can let go, and wait til the next time this guy tries something like this.

Ok, so we are ahead... If you had AK would you call? assuming his range is behind




KT:
Board: Ks 9c 3d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 17.5679 % 15.81% 01.75% { A9s, A3s, K8s-K4s, K2s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, A9o, A3o, K8o-K4o, K2o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 82.4321 % 80.68% 01.75% { KTo }


AK:
Board: Ks 9c 3d
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 15.8474 % 15.63% 00.22% { A9s, A3s, K8s-K4s, K2s, QTs-Q9s, J9s+, A9o, A3o, K8o-K4o, K2o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 2: 84.1526 % 83.93% 00.22% { AKo }


When will you get a better chance????




sry: edit to use KTo in first scenario

Poker Hound

I cant believe how many people are prepared to auto fold here! Last 4 where winner takes all and You have top pair with good kicker and someone over bets that much after a check on the flop. I may have considered folding here if Nicky had bet pot size and was re raised. I am sure Nicky was checking, hoping for a bet but the all in has thrown him but I believe a smaller bet or check here could show more strength.

I believe that the villain here does not put Nicky, the aggressor, on a K here and he has 2nd pair with highish kicker and is quite happy to try and take down the pot right here hence the overbet all in.

My guess is villain has Q9 and Nicky calls and survives and is massive chip leader with # left.

RasTa

I bet he has middle pair with an ace and hits the a on the river

Norwich Fan Rob

yes i would call with AK (but i wouldnt limp in AK from the SB)

(niall, surely u need to include KJ and KQ in the hand ranges)

ocallagh

Norwich Fan Rob wrote:

(niall, surely u need to include KJ and KQ in the hand ranges)

No, the post was assuming we were ahead. Some were saying they might be ahead but would wait for a better chance. I was trying to point out just how far ahead KT is *if* it is ahead on that flop.

Ste05

Poker Hound wrote:

I am sure Nicky was checking, hoping for a bet but the all in has thrown him but I believe a smaller bet or check here could show more strength.

Exactly, however to any bet I'm sure Nicky was pushing, and to a check he was leading the turn, but with this Massive over-bet he's left with this huge decision for (basically) his tournament.

Norwich Fan Rob

fair enough, i agree if we are ahead he cant have more than 5 outs, or 20% chance, possibly 3 outs (12%) if a weaker K.

maybe im looking at this wrong, people talk of us being relatively short vs the blinds, we have 160k, the BB is currently 6k, surely that leaves room for some play.

ive been reflecting on this some more, and if this was heads up in an STT, with level chips, and i check the flop to someone (as i would here) and they then move in, i would call for sure (although blinds are usually more significant then)

I guess im just using the notion of trying to avoid (possibly) marginal situations with lunatic players when the blinds are not critical (as i dont believe they are here).

The C Kid

Very tough spot.

I'm probably undecided on my own action although I disagree with the view that we should fold simply due to the fact that the player in question is reckless and as we are a better player we can outplay the table later.

I think one of the main attributes of a good player, ie one who has an advantage over the rest of the table, would be using their skills in an attempt to accurately assess this situation and make their decision rationally based on that deduction. The ability to call if you decide that this situation warrants a call is the edge you have over the field.

I just hope the guy turns over 99, because then I would have a new hero.

NickyOD

Daithio wrote:

If the players are as terrible as Nicky says they are, then he could be pushing with second pair or any king. You really think he's going all in to a 12k pot for 110k with 2 pair or a set on a board with no draws?? No way. I call. The only hands I think that are beating you here are KQ or KJ, and he might well have raised with KQ. You have to get all the chips together somehow, and the odds are you're ahead IMO.

Good analysis Dave. As usual the cream rises to the top.

I called. He had 6-9. :eek: and hit a second 9 on the river. :mad:

After that I stole the blinds a couple of times, then with a stack of 50K and blinds still 3K/6K I pushed with QQ. The BB looks at his hand and says its too good to fold and calls off 90% of his chips with K-J. He makes a house.

I've never been dumped out of a satellite so cruelly. ****ing ridiculous.

I'm playing a €500 satelite on Monday at the poker lounge. If I don't get through that I wont be in the Irish Open.

NickyOD

carrigeen wrote:

nicky get the f$%£ up its 5 o clock

its like who shot jr

oh the suspense:D

lol! What's 5 o'clock?

The C Kid

Good call. Well played.

carrigeen

lol

ul nicky

best of luck in the $500 hope u make it

a-k-47

do you play ppp sunday sat nicky?..$99.. i havent played it in awhile so got to try this last time..

NickyOD

a-k-47 wrote:

do you play ppp sunday sat nicky?..$99.. i havent played it in awhile so got to try this last time..

What time is it on? Unfortunately I have to be at the club Sunday.

a-k-47

8 or 9 bells not to sure...u going to play the 400 friday.

Poker Hound

Good call Nicky and very unlucky. Right decision that I knew you would make and horrible luck on the river.

Can you give me details on the sat on Monday in the Poker Lounge. How many players are you expecting and what are starting chips and levels?

Liam.

NickyOD

a-k-47 wrote:

8 or 9 bells not to sure...u going to play the 400 friday.

If there are live satelites in Dublin I'll probably play those instead of the 400.

NickyOD

Poker Hound wrote:

Good call Nicky and very unlucky. Right decision that I knew you would make and horrible luck on the river.

Can you give me details on the sat on Monday in the Poker Lounge. How many players are you expecting and what are starting chips and levels?

Liam.

We had €50 SnG satelites into the €500 of which I think there are 7 or 8 qualifiers. There will be several players who will buy straight into it so there should be atleast 2 Irish Open tickets up for grabs but we have more tickets available to us should we get a bigger turn out. The tournament will start at 9PM on Monday the 10th. I don't know what the structure is but it will be a deep structure. Probably 7K starting stack with all the usual blind levels.

Poker Hound

Thanks for info Nicky and hopefully I will see you there on Monday night.

Liam.

sikes

i know there was discussion about backing boards players before, cant remember the outcome but..

would you consider asking for backers nicky? i am sure you would find plenty of people to buy a stake in you. it would be sad to see one of the strongest tounaments players not make it to the irish open.

gl trying to qualify

Daithio

Ouch Nicky, that's really unlucky. Have you tried the Paddy Power qualifiers on the Sunday? They're not too tough, plus if you qualify there's the wsop last longer thing as an extra sweetener. Hope to see you there anyway, gl with the €500 game.

NickyOD

Daithio wrote:

Ouch Nicky, that's really unlucky. Have you tried the Paddy Power qualifiers on the Sunday? They're not too tough, plus if you qualify there's the wsop last longer thing as an extra sweetener. Hope to see you there anyway, gl with the €500 game.

I'm gona be in Dublin anyway but I don't think I'll get time to play the online sat. I left it a bit late to try and qualify because I had a lot of things on, but was still confident of getting a seat. I really thought I had it in the bag when I made this call, but that's poker.

Hectorjelly

I think this is a pretty easy call - players only ever do this with one pair. Sure KQ is in his range but then so is every King, and we dominate most of them.

Being a good player is no excuse for folding what is likely to the best hand.