Global temperatures could rise by 3 degrees!

Akrasia

According to Sir David King, Britain's Chief Scientist.

this is more than double the accepted estimate of a temperature increase of about 1.4 degrees by 2100 (although ther Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates increases up to and including 5.8 degrees by 2100)

Computer models indicate that if then global temperature increases by 2 degrees above 1990 levels, it could trigger extreme and rapid change in the biosphere with positive feedback loops contriburing to accelerating temperature changes.

2100, and the world's temperature has risen by 3C. The ice cap covering Greenland is in retreat, eventually adding 7 metres to sea levels, and the west Antarctic ice sheet starts melting. Arctic summer sea ice disappears, killing the polar bear. You can sail to the North Pole. Coastal urban populations in Africa and Asia are at risk.

RAINFOREST RETREATS

The Amazon breaks down as rainfall decreases, causing the forest to collapse into savannah. It deals a devastating blow to global biodiversity - the basin is home to millions of species of wildlife - and the earth's ability to recycle carbon emissions. The ocean and the soil become net carbon contributors, further speeding global warming.

WEATHER WORSENS

Climate increasingly volatile as warming adds energy to weather systems. Events of the past decade foreshadow floods (Bangladesh, India), drought (east Africa), hurricanes and cyclones (Mozambique, Nicaragua and Honduras), forest fires (the Mediterranean, Alaska and Russia) and insect plagues (Canada) that wrack the globe.

DROUGHT SPREADS

Africa's Great Lakes shrivel; Malawi's wetlands dry up and acute water shortages threaten fishing and farming livelihoods (40 per cent of its GDP). Worldwide, 3bn people face severe "water stress", with possible water wars in Central Asia and Africa. Mass migration out of North Africa. By 2100, Peru faces drought as its glaciers melt.

ECOSYSTEMS COLLAPSE

A fifth of the world's surface has changed significantly, from melting Arctic tundra to vanishing cloud forest in Queensland, Australia (exterminating the native Golden Bowerbird, above). A 3.7C rise would kill or critically endanger 40 per cent of Africa's mammals. Up to 38 per cent of Europe's birds and 20 per cent of its plants are extinct or at risk.

FAMINE GROWS

Snow melts earlier in the year so water sources dry before crops finish growing in areas such as the Sierra Nevada and northern India, left. Up to 400 million people at risk of hunger as 400 million tons of cereal crops are lost, with Africa hit worst. Crop yields fall for the first time since the agricultural revolution in Europe, Russia and America.

What if...

55 Percentage of the world's population would be exposed to dengue fever - up from 30 per cent in 1990. Insect-borne diseases like dengue and malaria, which already claim 1.3m lives a year, would spread away from the equator towards the poles.

3bn Population at risk of water shortages as rising temperatures dry surface water and reduce rainfall.

54 Percentage of mammals that will die in South Africa (worst-case scenario). Up to 40 per cent of the country's birds, 70 per cent of butterflies and 45 per cent of reptiles will also be extinct or critically endangered.

1/2 Nature reserves that will no longer be able to fulfil their conservation objectives, due to dying species or habitats.

-10c British temperature drop during wintertime, once global warming reaches the point where it disrupts Atlantic Ocean currents and switches off the Gulf Stream, which currently warms our island. The North Atlantic marine ecosystem could also collapse when half the plankton die. It is not known exactly what the "tipping point" temperature for this is, but 3C would be close.

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article357783.ece

Dirk Gently

This is a very worrying article indeed. I fear there is a lack of political will from most of the world’s leaders to take emergency measures to slow this process down. I think by the time drastic action becomes a priority in relation to environmental policy, it will be too late. We are living in a world where the present and short term goals are a priority. Long term protection of the environment isn’t high on the agenda. Countries like china and India will become major headaches as regards pollution in years to come, yet they will argue that the industrialized west went through this process and now it’s their turn.

I believe a major effort should be focused on countries like china and India to fuel their growing energy consumption with renewable energy sources. Then there’s the great white elephant that is the United States. No sign of them signing up to any emergency action plan or taking a lead in the promotion of these issues. Quite the opposite infact, with top U.S. scientists being/been(spell fascists please educate me) gagged by the current administration when they speak out on the dangers mentioned in the article posted by the op.

Europe and Ireland in particular are not exactly doing their part either. Here in Ireland we are oil junkies. Again, short term goals the priority of our government. No chance of any policies to tackle the issue, because it would harm industry and perhaps have a negative impact with voters in the short term. This is not really a good attitude from the government as tough measures are needed in order to safe guard future Irish generations. Build an economy with incentives for green technology companies to set up here in Ireland, research and provide environmentally responsible transport and housing.

We need a leading industrial nation to take the initiative and “go green”. We need to prove that reduce, reuse, recycle is not just a sound bite, but a definite goal and strategy of our country. Every available watt of electricity should be harvested by wind / solar / wave as we can. Several cities in America have public transport systems running on environmentally friendly fuel types. This is a good example and one which every city should follow. Lead by example. Ireland needs to set and example to our fellow Europeans and boldly go, where no oil junkie has gone before.

piraka

Does anyone know which computer models were used in this study?

New_Departure06

I read somewhere that Ireland an Britain could be some of the few areas not under water eventually due to global warming.

piraka

Hopefully the sea will rise high enough to wipe out the scourge of holiday cottage developments by the sea.