Could the next election end up being decided in the courts?

LostinBlanch

With the electoral register bloated by 800,000 votes and the chances of electoral fraud being huge in what looks like a tight election.

Can you see this being decided in the courts?

If a candidate loses a seat by a small amount do you not think that they will go to court quoting the bloated electoral register?

To date there has been no government activity in this area, for example no emergency legislation requiring voters to give PPS nos as well as driving licences / passport as a way of ensuring only those who are eligible to vote do so.

No handing out electoral registration forms whcih have to be filled in and returned with census forms. I know the CSO said they didn't want to have to do this but surely it would have been a cost effective and relatively painless way of sorting out the electoral register.

It kind of makes me suspicious why there has been no activity in this area. Do they feel that they will benefit from electoral fraud?

I think if they felt that they were going to lose out they would have sorted it out within 48 hours.

What does everyone else think?

oscarBravo

The chances of electoral fraud are huge? Where is that coming from? Are you assuming that because the electoral register has increased, that a significant percentage of those who have registered to vote are not eligible?

Akrasia

well, in the trial for electronic voting (in some meath local election), didn't the vote tally and the number of ballots cast not add up?
And wasn't there vote fixing in internal Fianna Fail elections?

seamus

Have you any evidence to show that 800,000 (or almost 30% of the eligible voter total) registered voters are fraudulent or otherwise ineligible?

flogen

This is probably what he's referring to:
http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=178782498&p=y78783zx4

The Environment Minister is coming under pressure to sort out the 'shambolic' state of the country's electoral register.

Experts say there are up to 800,000 more names on the voters' list than there should be.

Many of them are dead but others are registered at more than one address and so could vote more than once.

cuckoo

When the last general election happened i was living in a flat, and can remember 4 polling cards arriving to non-residents in the building. 2 were for the same person, who had died a few years ago afaik, and the other 2 were to names that nobody recognised. There was little stopping me bringing them down to the polling station or passing them onto other people, thus indulging in some electoral fraud. "Vote early, vote often". :rolleyes:

I do see it as a possibility that there could be some court cases arising from the election; and what a tangled, messy thing it would be.

Like the OP said, voters should be asked for some form of ID.

oscarBravo

Voters are asked for some form of ID; it's mentioned on your polling card.

As far as I know, I currently have about four votes available to me, of which two are here in Mayo. Yes, the electoral register is a bloody mess; yes, there are registered voters who don't exist. This doesn't mean that every registered voter will cast a ballot. I honestly think the biggest problem with the state of the electoral register is that it leads to an understatement of voter turnout.

John R

True but the question the OP asked is not will there be fraud but will the flawed system mean there could be legal challenges to tight elections.

I think it is a very real possibility, any chance of turning defeat into victory will be too tempting for politicians. Just look at Berlusconi's sad attempts to hold on to power.

cuckoo

cuckoo wrote:

There was little stopping me bringing them down to the polling station or passing them onto other people, thus indulging in some electoral fraud. "Vote early, vote often". :rolleyes:

What has the polling card got to do with voting? Surely production of a polling card is of no relevance whatsoever?

oscarBravo

John R wrote:

True but the question the OP asked is not will there be fraud but will the flawed system mean there could be legal challenges to tight elections.

The system is no more flawed than it has been in the past (and I accept that it's flawed), and there have been tight elections in the past. What's different now?

John R wrote:

I think it is a very real possibility, any chance of turning defeat into victory will be too tempting for politicians. Just look at Berlusconi's sad attempts to hold on to power.

What would a candidate hope to gain from a court challenge? The only possible remedy would be to overhaul the electoral register and re-run the election. Do you really see a court handing down that kind of verdict?

cuckoo

Deleted User wrote:

What has the polling card got to do with voting? Surely production of a polling card is of no relevance whatsoever?

Being in possession of the card would aid in my voting 'on behalf' of my dead neighbour; i've never been asked for ID when voting. It's a sign of the decrease in involvement in political parties that volunteers can't be found to do the sitting at the desk in the polling station beside the polling clerk checking IDs.

I wouldn't be surprised if a journalist might try to obtain a ballot illegally, i don't know if they'd go as far as to cast the vote, but a photo of them with ballot in hand could make it into the tabloids. They could then hand in the ballot at the nearest garda station, like that journalist who got prescription drugs with a fake prescription pad did and ended up in court.

Victor

There is also the matter of a constituency review. While they only have to be held every 12 years, its quite possible that there are going to be anomolies where for example a 3-seat constituency might have more population* than a 4-seater. You will also have the situation in certain areas where non-national residents make up a material (>8%) part of the population, but aren't on the register.

* Its population that counts, not number of registered electors.

LostinBlanch

John R wrote:

True but the question the OP asked is not will there be fraud but will the flawed system mean there could be legal challenges to tight elections.

Yes I wasn't saying there would be fraud, there could very well be but I don't know. But the fact that the system is so flawed, and no one in government has denied the 800,000 figure leads me to wonder why this being allowed to continue. Who benefits from things staying as they are? If the government parties felt that Sinn Fein for example were going to get extra votes (and seats) as a result then they would stop it quicker than I can type this post. I'm not a shinner btw, just using them as an example.

John R wrote:

I think it is a very real possibility, any chance of turning defeat into victory will be too tempting for politicians. Just look at Berlusconi's sad attempts to hold on to power.

I was thinking more of the McDowells of this world. Tight constituency he's in, didn't he lose his seat before to John Gormley by 45 votes or something?

Akrasia wrote:

well, in the trial for electronic voting (in some meath local election), didn't the vote tally and the number of ballots cast not add up?

I heard that but I thought it was Nora Owens seat that was involved, and this came to light during the last electronic voting debate about 2 years too late!

Akrasia wrote:

And wasn't there vote fixing in internal Fianna Fail elections?

I hadn't heard that, can you tell me more?

LostinBlanch

Victor wrote:

There is also the matter of a constituency review. While they only have to be held every 12 years, its quite possible that there are going to be anomolies where for example a 3-seat constituency might have more population* than a 4-seater. You will also have the situation in certain areas where non-national residents make up a material (>8%) part of the population, but aren't on the register.

* Its population that counts, not number of registered electors.

FF will try to get as many 3 seaters as possible as they are more likely to get more seats. People generally tend to vote in more TDs from smaller parties and or independents in 4 or 5 seaters. So the less of them there is the better it is for the bigger parties.

New_Departure06

Shows the need for biometric ID cards. They could have fingerprint and iris scan info contained in the microchip. They would be swiped at the polling-station to verify such a person had not already voted and that they indeed exist.

BTW, I was sent 2 polling cards when I send in the form to get the Electoral crowd to understand I had moved house. Then I was sent 2 polling cards, 1 to my old address and another to my new one. Now I assure you that I only used the one for my new address. But it shows the nonsense of the current system and how biometric ID cards could help address it, and prevent the dead from voting.

LostinBlanch

Probably going a bit overboard there I think. PPS numbers + picture ID e.g. driving licence or passport and current utility bill would do. The PPS numbers would already be matched against the register, so they could find out if there was any personation going on.

Captain Trips

Having a closely contested election is certainly the result du jour: the US election, the German election and the Italian election were all within inches of each other at the final results.