Who will be our next Taoiseach?

ISAW

New_Departure06 wrote:

Bertie or Enda? Who is going to win. Try to separate this out from the question of who should win.

If today's polls were General Election ones I would predict an outcome of:

FF: 60
FG: 55
Labour: 21
PD: 6 (normally 5 but now we have O'Gorman in the fray)
SF: 10-16
Independent: 10

But a lot can change between now and then. Can the govt be saved by a few more "high-profile" candidates, or by the SSIAs? Or simply because of a desire by the voters for economic stability? Can anything save Bertie? Will SF go in with Bertie?

There are a number of flaws in peoples analysis.

The above poll has been reversed by a Sunday Business post poll giving FF 42 per cent - which is where they were at the last general election.

An absolute disaster for FF would be 70 seats. They wont get less than that. to talk of 69 is madness.
Also, while FG + Lab + GP mich come within a per cent of FF, under the Irish system the party with the larger percentage of votes gets and even larger percentage of Dail seats.
in election 2002 FF- 41.5 FG- 28 Lab-10.5 PD-4.5 SF-6.5 GP-4
Note FG+Lab+GP = 42.5 per cent which was a whole per cent more than FF

Seats FF- 81 FG- 31 Lab-21 PD-8 SF-5 GP- 6

FG+Lab+GP = 58 seats (a whole lot less than 81 with about the same number of votes.)

Secondly, the independents are not "a group". If any sub group is picked from them the largest of these would be FF people. In 2002 independents got 11 per cent of the vote. Only Lowrey (a FG person originally) is a cert to vote against FF. The rest could be bought off. So the idea the FF needed the PD's is also open to debate. even without the Pd's FF could possibly form a minority government or go in with independents. SF were not then a possibility but could become one now.

FF therefore have a host of options. Even a loss of 11 seats and teh rainbow pich ALL of them up (unlikely - many would go to FF independents or maybe to SF or the PDs) this would still leave FF on 70 and the rainbow with less than that. even in that situation FF STILL have the independent SF or minority options. The rainbow have limited their options on these if not dealt them out.

So I really cont see FF not getting into government. the only possibility that it might happen is the ff getting 60 seats senario above along with tha rainbow picking ALL of those searts up giving them 79 seats. This is just not going to happen! and anyone saying FF will get 60 seats and FG Lab and GP pick all FF losses up I ask to put 1000 euro on it. I bet a 1000 euro they wont - and they do have a book maker TD in FG who gave up his seat. He can even hold the bet.

Before FF got into government they spent about 15 of the perceeding 20 years out of government. They provided top class opposition in hard times. The opposition are only beginning to act like an opposition over the last five years and they have only been out of government less than ten years and they are in opposition when the government is preciding over the greatest economic success in Irish history. To think the rainbow are going to sweep into government is in my frank opinion pissing against the wind.

And the idea that attacking the leader of FF will show success is also foolish. Memebrs of the cabinet may show cracks, but Bertie really does not have that many. The idea that FF might split into two parties is in my opinion a pipe dream but it is the hope behind such attacks. It happened with Blaney and with O malley. The result- FF lost one seat (and Blaney NEVER voted against FF) and FF lost 8 seats (well maybe 6 of them were FF and the PDs ended up in government with FF which is a net gain of the two other of the 8 seats).

The opposition are beginning to get their act together, but it will take them at least five years before they can begin to challange FF at the polls. and I can see the PDs being gone in five years time - and even then if they lose seats at least half of them will go to FF and less than half of the rest to a disparate rainbow.

Teh immediate future is bleak for the opposition. They should get their heads down and work hard at opposition and expose any flaws in government ministers. Bertie will probably be gone in five/six years time and they should be getting ready for that. They shoyuls also keep their options open and FG or Lab or GP should consider governent with FF.