Who will win the 2007 election?

New_Departure06

Who do you think will win next year?

I would on balance prefer the current crowd. They are far from perfect but neither are they the disaster portrayed in much of the media - which is really borne of the old adage that you build them up to bring them down.

FG and Labour have a disastrous record in govt. Under Garrett Fitzgerald nearly 100,000 a year left the country, inflation was 25% and unemployment was 18%. I know which I prefer.

However the main point of this thread is who WILL win, not merely who should win. I believe cautiously that Bertie and the Rainbow (including the Greens) will be roughly equal in number but with a slight advantage to the current govt because of the seat bonus acrueing from FF having a high first preference vote and therefore more transfers. I believe Independents and SF will choose the next govt. The question then is how many of the Independents will be disgruntled former FFers (who would tend to back the govt e.g. Mildred Fox) or anti-FFer leftists.

gandalf

New_Departure06 wrote:

Who do you think will win next year?

I would on balance prefer the current crowd. They are far from perfect but neither are they the disaster portrayed in much of the media - which is really borne of the old adage that you build them up to bring them down.

FG and Labour have a disastrous record in govt. Under Garrett Fitzgerald nearly 100,000 a year left the country, inflation was 25% and unemployment was 18%. I know which I prefer.

Actually that is a rather unfair and biased analysis, FG & Labour normally come in and clean up the mess left by FF.

The basis of the Celtic tiger were put in place by the Rainbow coalition before the current mob hopped up on the board and rode the wave so to speak.

However the main point of this thread is who WILL win, not merely who should win. I believe cautiously that Bertie and the Rainbow (including the Greens) will be roughly equal in number but with a slight advantage to the current govt because of the seat bonus acrueing from FF having a high first preference vote and therefore more transfers. I believe Independents and SF will choose the next govt. The question then is how many of the Independents will be disgruntled former FFers (who would tend to back the govt e.g. Mildred Fox) or anti-FFer leftists.

Well I think the country does need a change and having FF & the PD's in government again would be unproductive.

I agree the Kingmakers could turn out to be the Sinners (as long as they or their Social club don't make too many more mistakes), and it will be interesting to see if Bertie and FF do a u-turn on going into government with them. What happens if they get more seats than the PD's, which is a realistic possibility for the next election.

I think if the leadership of FG and Labour were different they would stand a better chance, Enda imho has the carisma of a wet kipper and Pat Rabbitte still thinks he is in the student debating society. I honestly don't know who in FG would be better and I would prefer to see Ruairi Quinn back in charge of Labour.

New_Departure06

The basis of the Celtic tiger were put in place by the Rainbow coalition before the current mob hopped up on the board and rode the wave so to speak.

I disagree.

Bards

gandalf wrote:

The basis of the Celtic tiger were put in place by the Rainbow coalition before the current mob hopped up on the board and rode the wave so to speak.
.

Wasn't it Bertie Ahearn as Finance Minister before the Rainbow Coalition came to power that really got the ball rolling!!

The_Minister

Bards wrote:

Wasn't it Bertie Ahearn as Finance Minister before the Rainbow Coalition came to power that really got the ball rolling!!

Ssssssh! Don't ruin their little fiction. It was the tax cuts that did it.

Parsley

FF are corrupt and incompetent
FG are superficial and vacuous
Labour are as socialist as they are interesting
The PDs are thinly disguised Nazis
SF are just scary

Maybe they could save ballot paper by cutting it down to two options: 'rock' and 'hard place'.

Failing that, vote Green, everyone!

Parsley

Bards wrote:

Wasn't it Bertie Ahearn as Finance Minister before the Rainbow Coalition came to power that really got the ball rolling!!

All Bertie did as finance minister was hang around in an anorak looking shifty, and help Charlie J rob the country blind.

And now as taoiseach he's letting Shell rob us blind... we get what is it, 3% of the profits from the Corrib gas pipe?

It's also worth mentioning that FG and FF have failed utterly to use the Celtic Tiger to create a strong economy; instead they've left us grow more and more dependent on the US and FDI. It's eerily reminiscent of Weimar Germany in the late 1920s...

The_Minister

Parsley wrote:

The PDs are thinly disguised Nazis

How do you suppose that? In fact their liberalisation policies directly contradict the Nazi's policies.

Parsley wrote:

Failing that, vote Green, everyone!

Technologically ignorant, mindless hippies
see? I can generalise too!

The_Minister

Parsley wrote:

It's also worth mentioning that FG and FF have failed utterly to use the Celtic Tiger to create a strong economy; instead they've left us grow more and more dependent on the US and FDI. It's eerily reminiscent of Weimar Germany in the late 1920s...

Ah yes, the old, Ireland can subsist on its own we don't need other nations, theory. Damn those Fianna Failers bringing us 70% export wealth. Don't they know that taters are good enough to live on?

SeanW

I seriously hope the current shower get booted out come 2007.

The government's record IMO is:
People dying on hospital trollies.
Wide scale financial irresponsibility, SSIAs, pre-election splurge budgets.
Infrastructure projects years behind time and several fold over budget.
No environmental/energy independence policies at a time when such are desperately needed.
Investment in public transport at an absolute minimum.
Martin "E-Voting" Cullen.
The old school politicians being all chummy with their big-money friends at FF tent at the Galway Races.
Lots of reports, consultants and glossy looking but empty plans, and hot air but little action, anywhere.

I'm hoepful that 2007 will bring us respite from the gross ineptitude and madness. I'm also pessimistic that too many people will have been bought over by the maturing of the SSIAs and an upcoming budget splurge.

Parsley

Firespinner wrote:

Ah yes, the old, Ireland can subsist on its own we don't need other nations, theory. Damn those Fianna Failers bringing us 70% export wealth. Don't they know that taters are good enough to live on?

What rubbish is this? At no point did i say we should subsist on our own, chewing potatoes. Just that being dependent on others to the extent that we are is foolish: American factories tend to pack off as soon as they can find somewhere cheaper. The government should do a lot more to help foster indigenous industry.

Also, what the hell does '70% export wealth' mean?

Firespinner wrote:

How do you suppose that? In fact their liberalisation policies directly contradict the Nazi's policies.

I withdraw the Nazi remark, but still. Their policies are inhuman and money driven: their treatment of asylum seekers is a disgrace, as is their belief that inequality is good for society.

Firespinner wrote:

Technologically ignorant, mindless hippies
see? I can generalise too!

You just generalised. My remarks weren't generalisations but an overall assessment of the party's policies, actions and leadership. They also had basis in fact, unlike your 'technologically ignorant' and 'mindless' nonsense.
__________________

New_Departure06

And now as taoiseach he's letting Shell rob us blind... we get what is it, 3% of the profits from the Corrib gas pipe?

Ah but Shell pays corporation tax.

biko

FF I'd say. And also.... Poll!

ednwireland

New_Departure06 wrote:

Ah but Shell pays corporation tax.

one of the lowest rates in th eu mind

fly_agaric

Firespinner wrote:

Ah yes, the old, Ireland can subsist on its own we don't need other nations, theory. Damn those Fianna Failers bringing us 70% export wealth. Don't they know that taters are good enough to live on?

LOL. What an utterly pointless and stupid post!

As for the topic, I think FF will win the next election but will need independents support or a coalition with labour or something to make up the numbers (i.e. FF + PD's may not be enough).
This is more what I feel will happen rather than based on anything more quantitative. I also feel FF will do pretty badly in Dublin but make up for it elsewhere.;)

New_Departure06

ednwireland wrote:

one of the lowest rates in th eu mind

Necessarily so.

bk

It seems very likely that FF will make up the next government, with a mix of PD and/or independents.

A recent poll found that 65% of Irish people are happy with the direction that the country is going in. Any economist will tell you that such a high figure is extremely positive for the incumbent government.

The reality is most people are extremely happy with how good the Irish economy is doing, despite problems with health, etc. most people realise that these aren't as important as a healthy economy.

Most people won't want to risk destabilising the economy and a FG+Labour+Greens coalition looks very shaky (from an economic point a view), so most people will probably decide to stick we want they have and know works.

bk

If the following is the worst that you can come up with on the existing government, then there is little chance of them losing the next election.

SeanW wrote:

The government's record IMO is:
People dying on hospital trollies.

This government has thrown more money at health then any government in the past and some things definitely have improved, however it still isn't there yet.

However I don't see how FG+Labour+Greens would do any better, I havn't heard any solutions from them.

Wide scale financial irresponsibility, SSIAs, pre-election splurge budgets.

Which hasn't actually done any harm to the Irish economy and seems to actually have helped the economy. Also people are more likely to vote FF because of this.

Infrastructure projects years behind time and several fold over budget.

In fairness, this area has vastly improved. Most road projects are now coming in on time and even under budget. This is due to vast improvements in project management by the NRA.

While unusual projects like the port tunnel and Luas are still late and over budget, this is more to do with lack of experience with these sort of projects and they do seem to be improving on it (I've being carefully watching the development of the Luas extensions and Metro and they seem to be getting very professional at it).

I do believe that the government does deserve some praise for improvement s in this area.

No environmental/energy independence policies at a time when such are desperately needed.

I agree with this, however it is a long term issue and unlikely to have an effect on the next election.

Investment in public transport at an absolute minimum.

Investment in public transport is at the highest it has ever been under any government. The Metro, Luas Extension and Rail projects (New station in the docks, 4 track lines to Hazelhatch, etc) are making real progress and we are likely to see these projects well under way before the next election.

I fail to see what any alternative government would do instead?

Martin "E-Voting" Cullen.

€50 million is small change for a government, no major deal, you should see the size of the failed IT projects in the UK, we seem to have gotten away fairly lucky. Every government will always have a couple of failed projects.

The old school politicians being all chummy with their big-money friends at FF tent at the Galway Races.

Any party in government is exactly the same.

Lots of reports, consultants and glossy looking but empty plans, and hot air but little action, anywhere.

Well I see real progress being made on the Transport 21 plan.

ISAW

SeanW wrote:

I seriously hope the current shower get booted out come 2007.

The government's record IMO is:
People dying on hospital trollies.

Really? How many people have died on trollies? How many patients were treated per year over the last 30 years? How many deaths in hospitals by other means over that period? When you supply the stats to support your position you might get some people to at least treat it as an argument and not just the usual hyperbole.

Wide scale financial irresponsibility,

Care to list them? Did no such things happen undr other governments? Ever? The Irish sweepstakes? Kilbeggan distillery?

SSIAs,

which are a bad policy because? I suppose nobody you know has one ?

pre-election splurge budgets.

But the year before the election is this year not last year! And FG Lab governments increased spending before elections and at all other times as well

Infrastructure projects years behind time and several fold over budget.

How many are years behind time? Care to list them?

No environmental/energy independence policies at a time when such are desperately needed.

And your evidence is? Would independence include having the West coast Gas ashore?

Investment in public transport at an absolute minimum.

Evidence of spending over the last twenty years please?

Martin "E-Voting" Cullen.

so do you oppose electronic voting?

The old school politicians being all chummy with their big-money friends at FF tent at the Galway Races.

What party was that book maker in that left politics to concentrate on business? Oh yes FG! By far the richest person in the Dail for years was Peter Barry - also FG! FF do not have a monopoly on rich friends.

Lots of reports, consultants and glossy looking but empty plans, and hot air but little action, anywhere.

Ever heard "he governs best that governs least"?
Actually one can criticise how money is spent but one can not deny that the current government have precided over the largest economic growth in Irish history.

I'm hoepful that 2007 will bring us respite from the gross ineptitude and madness. I'm also pessimistic that too many people will have been bought over by the maturing of the SSIAs and an upcoming budget splurge.

Im not here to defend FF or the Pds. But I do hope you can come up with some actual evidence and not just hyperbole and catch phrases which lack any facts.