Boycott Of The Housing Market

Gurgle

DublinWriter wrote:

I also heard that la-la-land are having a bit of a property boom too.

Isn't that what we've been discussing for 24 pages?

FillSpectre

SkepticOne wrote:

What about your post here?

I am not jimmy smith and I still don't know anybody putting €600 into a rental property. What am I have meant to have said?

If there are those people might be speculating on something big happening but I doubt there are that many of them. I do know people who have expanded ownship based on development potential. Inearly bought my neighbours house as It would mean I could build another property bettween the two houses.

SkepticOne

FillSpectre wrote:

I am not jimmy smith and I still don't know anybody putting €600 into a rental property. What am I have meant to have said?

Sorry, I got you confused with the other person. Anyway the post I provided does show that that there are people out there who consider quite poor rates of return acceptable.

SkepticOne

FillSpectre wrote:

I know 10 landlords getting over €1000 a month from their property after expenses. There are lots of people doing bad business everywhere it doesn't mean every business is failing or bad. If there is a property slump of what ever all the bad investors will more likely be swallowed up by the good investors. THe thought that clever regular punters will pick up bargins is a little hopefull.

When did they buy?

FillSpectre

SkepticOne wrote:

When did they buy?

Generally about 2-4 years ago. But the important thing is what they did with the property. THe demand for good proffesional tenants actually means there is an undersupply for social welfare tenants. It actually means there is more money to be made. You can also sign a long term lease with the councils to make money. You can make money in any property market!

Your post about €600 payment doesn't prove anything just talk on the net about money. I also said yes there are stupid investors I don't see how that means all are stupid.

The people in trouble are FTBs and the stupid no matter what

miju

fillsprectre , you actually didn't answer any of my questions and just tried to fob me off so AGAIN I'll ask you directly FillSpectre:

1: seeing as how you said capital appreciation / rental yields is not the only way to make money , WHAT other way is there?

2: i've posted about 1 location IN DUBLIN where there's a large amount of unccupnancy and i know the estate down the road wouldn't be far behind , i'm 100% sure this can't just be an anomally in 1/2 square mile of Dublin , come on out to Citygate you'll see if for yourself dont bury your head in the sand say it's not happening cos you don't see it because IT IS HAPPENING

FillSpectre wrote:

The other 130,000 properties do not exits for sure and the figure is highly suspect considering the other reports from the same group of people saying they could get into places and reports of people not getting censos forms.

again i see YOUR using your crystal ball and again FOR THE LAST TIME these weren't included in the figure of vacant properties , your actually choosing to rubbish the main facts of a piece of anecdotal evidence and then turn around and use a part of that same piece of anecdotal evidence to try and back up what your trying to say when in reality it does quite the opposite

your a lost cause man you actually can't have a rational discussion with you (like alot of the population when it comes to property)

FillSpectre

miju wrote:

fillsprectre , you actually didn't answer any of my questions and just tried to fob me off so AGAIN I'll ask you directly FillSpectre:

I said capital appreciation is not the ONLY REASON to buy property and I never siad rent yield was not a consideration. So you are asking the wrong question and have missed what I keep on repeating

I explained how percentages based on small areas don't make up for the density and occupancy in other areas. I must have missed which area in Dublin has vacancy massively over 20%. Can you state it as numbers and how long the property has been built. If there is a newly built place in dublin of 100 places that are vacnat it means little in real terms

I didn't fob you off I explained how your claims are not accurate and also how your use of the incorrect information is also flawed.

When using anecdotal evidence you can use the same anecdotal sourse to show it is unreliable.

To clarrify the collectors have said both they could not get access into property and that they were informed some were vacant. There were also reports of people not getting forms. This just proves the sourse of information is unreliable period. If you don't understand this as a rationtional view it is you who that is a lost cause.

It may be happening but you have yet to give and credible information to support such massive vacancies and the papers publishing the information were also unable to produce any credible examples. So I choose to beleive given the information and logic that there is not a massive vacancy rate in Ireland. If you want to say there is using the information provided as proof go ahead it still doesn't make it true.

If it was true there would be a massive outcry from everybody.

ronbyrne2005

fillspectre -i'll only give you one warning ,sell in next 6-12 months or you WILL see capital depreciation within 12-18 months.
Regards.

Sonnenblumen

Gurgle wrote:

How helpful of you to bring the thread back onto the OP's topic after 24 pages.

I couldn't be bother to read around the houses, seems to me some have their heads up their arses praying for something that will never be and the other half are methodically chipping away with counter arguments to justify their own positions. No problems with either half but how much can you guys take? Jesus is here in lalala land?

Q If capital appreciation declines to very low levels, rents will get there quicker, so if yoy believe 2% is good return on € 400k, well we're b

---

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DublinWriter

joebloggs3 wrote:

I'm looking at buying a discounted property off plan in the UK. A very interesting Dublin company are sourcing property at genuine discounts and organising the full end to end process of buying. They offer free 2 hour workshops...

...oh dear, oh dear, oh dear.

Be careful and watch for the 'hard sell' at those things.

And buying off-plan is another risk again.

coolhandluke

Surely joe bloggs is the seller,not the buyer !.

Pa ElGrande

Leading thinkers believe American home prices will being to fall in early 2006. Ireland catches cold whenever Boston sneezes. Expect a little coughing fit in the Irish property market during the summer of 2006. The boom was fun while it lasted.

Bernie Goldbach's blog - Home as ATM
http://irish.typepad.com/irisheyes/2005/week25/index.html

Mr. Goldbach read the tea leaves correctly. well done sir.

Pa ElGrande

The Bank of Ireland regards these estimates of wealth in an optimistic way and believes that some of the money in property will be diversified into bonds and equities in the future. But it is clear that any softening of property prices would have a considerable negative impact on personal wealth in Ireland.

The other finding promoted by the survey, that this high level of wealth cushions people from their indebtedness to the banks and will underwrite further borrowing, should also be treated with caution.

Irish outlook: Michael Casey: Ireland's wealth just isn't working
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-2271629,00.html

The subtext of the BoIPB study is that Ireland's new-found wealth is the product of a bubble, a property bubble. The inarguable rule of economics is that all bubbles burst. Is anyone paying a blind bit of notice to this irrefragable rule? Not a chance.
<snip>
When JK Galbraith wrote his book about the Great Crash of 1929 he said it was to "keep the memory green". However, he failed to keep that memory green enough, because there have been bubbles aplenty since the distinguished economist completed his work.

Nevertheless Ireland's property bubble and the idea that the country is bursting with riches, if nothing else, warrant a fresh study of Galbraith's cautionary tome. It's in all the libraries.

A country bursting with riches and it's all due to a bubble
http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1654402 [free registration required]

But perhaps the best indicator of property values and investment came from the Merrill Lynch World Wealth Report some weeks back which said that wealthy Irish investors - those with a spare €1m to €30m - are starting to diversify away from investing in real estate into other asset classes.

"The smart money is beginning to reduce its allocation to real estate," said Nick Tucker, head of Merrill Lynch Global Private Client UK and Ireland.

The smart money is now being diverted elsewhere
http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1654336 [free registration required]

Last year, Davy’s shopping exercise found that the typical first-time borrower was offered loans extending over 30 years. ‘‘This year, it seems definitely to be moving toward 35 years,’’ Rankin said.

The Davy study involved approaching three mortgage broker's, one bank and one building society. Posing as a first-time buyer couple with a combined salary of €60,000, the mystery shopper was offered a mortgage of as much as €360,000.

As a single first-time buyer earning €60,000, the mystery shopper was also offered a loan for €360,000

Banks stretch lending rules to fuel boom
http://www.sbpost.ie/post/pages/p/story.aspx-qqqid=15778-qqqx=1.asp

The Davy economists Robbie Kelleher and Rossa White expect gross domestic product (GDP) and gross national product (GNP) to rise 6% this year, up from 4.7% and 5.4%, last year. Davy predicts that economic growth will ease back to 5% next year and 3% in 2008

Irish growth to dip amid global fears of 'hard landing'
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/newspaper/0,,176-2271777,00.html

They calculate that 100pc loan-to-value loans make up between 30-40pc of new first-time buyer business at many banks

Davy issue alert on bank lending 'risks'
http://www.unison.ie/business/stories.php3?ca=80&si=1653914

The bulls must be on away (buying property in Spain/Bulgaria etc) so they've given the bears the run of the place for the summer. There is a change a coming, the tides are turning, volatility is raising its ugly head everywhere in the world an increase in the money supply causes inflation, it is a well known fundamental written in stone economic fact. It has been hidden and malformed to give everyone a false view but it will raise its head and cannot be stopped barring a recession.

Cantab.

Pa ElGrande wrote:

The bulls must be on away (buying property in Spain/Bulgaria etc) so they've given the bears the run of the place for the summer. There is a change a coming, the tides are turning, volatility is raising its ugly head everywhere in the world an increase in the money supply causes inflation, it is a well known fundamental written in stone economic fact. It has been hidden and malformed to give everyone a false view but it will raise its head and cannot be stopped barring a recession.

Yeah, any jittering/media speculation over the next couple of weeks will undoubtedly be passed off as 'silly season' scaremongering. Whilst Ireland's nouveau rich (middle-aged taxi drivers, civil service workers and binmen alike) are all off sunning themselves in their spanish properties paid for by their tenants, a surprise may await on their return.

These guys will take a hit for sure, but it's the FTBs I feel sorry for.

ronbyrne2005

Cantab. wrote:

Yeah, any jittering/media speculation over the next couple of weeks will undoubtedly be passed off as 'silly season' scaremongering. Whilst Ireland's nouveau rich (middle-aged taxi drivers, civil service workers and binmen alike) are all off sunning themselves in their spanish properties paid for by their tenants, a surprise may await on their return.

These guys will take a hit for sure, but it's the FTBs I feel sorry for.

nobody is forcing FTB's to buy,any simple analysis of the fundamentals would tell you somethings wrong.

whizzbang

ronbyrne2005 wrote:

nobody is forcing FTB's to buy,any simple analysis of the fundamentals would tell you somethings wrong.

Nobody's forcing them, but you have to admit there are a lot of concerned mothers, partners, friends all telling them they have to get on the ladder now while they still can.

Unfortunatly most people are just happy to follow the herd rather than to do their own research.

FillSpectre

ronbyrne2005 wrote:

fillspectre -i'll only give you one warning ,sell in next 6-12 months or you WILL see capital depreciation within 12-18 months.
Regards.

Why the hell would I sell my home? My mortgage is cheaper than rent, I invested time and money into the property. It has development potential and rent potential should anything terrible happen.

You are iccredibly foolish to suggest to anybody that they should sell their home in the form of a warning. It is incedibly stupid to state things as fact when they are only your personal beliefs. You would probably jump for joy when a crash happens because it will mean you were right but it won't becasue you are still wrong to say what will happen.

People have been talking about a property crash for 10 years eventually they will be right of some adjustmen. This will how ever not mean they predicted it.


Pa ElGrande

Did you by any chance only selectively take news reports? :rolleyes:

There are opposing views in the media just as much so adding some together that agrees with your view doesn't really make it any more or less speculative.

Bad stories sell more papers

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

shnaek

I had friends down at the weekend. Their neighbours in Galway were looking for 380k for their house. They eventually sold for 310k.

whizzbang

shnaek wrote:

I had friends down at the weekend. Their neighbours in Galway were looking for 380k for their house. They eventually sold for 310k.

Do you know how they came up with the 380k figure initially?

FillSpectre

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

No change in the property supplements that I can see and the same dual reporting on the subject. Headlines overblown on possible down turn is exactelly the same. Advertisement based supplements are always rosy.

Bad news sells papers that remains true and if you are unaware of this that is your problem. Ireland has one of the lowest crime rates in the world yet what are the headlines always about.Ireland was annouced last week as the safest tourist destination in the world, didn't see that in the headlines.

mkdon05

Looks like people listened to my original post and boycotted the market







What do yo mean it was related to stamp duty:D

whizzbang

Looks like we were right all along!

Where's Fill gone?