Latest MRBI Poll

Pythia

So what does everyone think of the latest poll?

Irish Times/MRBI Poll: May 19th 2006

Fianna Fail 31% (-6)
Fine Gael 28% (+4)
Labour 15% (-1)
Sinn Fein 9% (-)
Green 5% (+1)
PD 3% (-)
Others 9% (+1)

Things are certainly looking up for FG!

New_Departure06

There's only one poll that counts.

I prefer the Red C polls to MRBI. Red C uses telephone polling whereas MRBI uses face-to-face. The Red C poll was the most accurate before the local elections.

Also, Red C has people in it that were involved in ICM in the UK and the ICM poll in Ireland in 2002 was the most accurate in predicting the GE result.

Also remember that FG has had a gone Ard Fheis and parties tend to get a boost after them. After Rabbitte's first Labour one they rose to 22% and overtook Labour. That quickly faded.

Don't count your chickens!

crosstownk

Interesting. A bit surprised to see FF down by 6 (down yes but 6? That will concern them a bit) and GP going up one rather than Lab?

homah_7ft

Has anyone here ever been polled? I'm surprised they produce any results at all

crosstownk

Been polled several times for the JNRLI but never for an MRBI poll.

New_Departure06

A polling company rang me a few years back but when they asked me my age and I told them they said actually we have already got enough people of that age so they had nothing to ask me.

homah_7ft

That poll does look good for FG but it's a long way to go yet. As New Departure said there is only one poll that counts. The exit poll of course

I'm guessing it's not like the telephone poll that I had where they were asking me about politics in between asking me what beer/lager I had in the last month.

NewDubliner

crosstownk wrote:

Interesting. A bit surprised to see FF down by 6 (down yes but 6?

Not surprising considering their anti-Dublin policies.

The_Minister

I notice, Pythia, that you didn't include the figures on party leaders. I wonder why?

Pythia

Cos I took the figures off another website which didn't mention it

http://www.politics.ie/viewtopic.php?t=12026

I was not aware there was a leadership poll too.

homah_7ft

Firespinner wrote:

I notice, Pythia, that you didn't include the figures on party leaders. I wonder why?

Why? How did Enda do?

Dirk Gently

How are the blue shirts actually gaining support after Endas disaster of a speech and mad Dr.Bills appearance on the late late show?

Meh, I suppose it’s a protest against FF and the PDs. It's not like there is any real alternative on offer. The blue shirts and the smoked salmon socialists v's finna fiddle and the privatisation party. Hopefully the blue shirts and Labour can come up with some kind of alternative between now and election time to actually give voters a choice.
Considering a blue shirt youth member posted the poll I’ll take it with a pinch of salt. Any other polls indicating different statistics or is this an accurate reflection of peoples choices as things stand?

Santa Claus

Sad thing is that while FF being down 6% looks good for FG, Bertie loves a challenge and polls like this will only further spur the party faithful on to get the votes for Bertie.

Enda is a nice enough guy, but I think Richard Bruton would make a much better party leader...he seems to know when to say nothing rather than enda who feels he needs to comment on almost everything.

Sadly, I think the opposition will end up losing the election for themselves again rather than FF having to win it (of course I hope I'm proved wrong).

And while I'm on the subject of hopes, maybe this election might see the end of the Pointless Democrats !

Flex

I hope to God Fine Gael dont get into power. Ill be voting Fianna Fail

Hotblack Desiato

NewDubliner wrote:

Not surprising considering their anti-Dublin policies.

I predict an FF meltdown in Dublin, due in no small part to decentralisation. Yes civil servants may be gagged, but we still have votes, and our families have even more votes.

cyclopath2001

Ivor Calally's, oversight of the dreadful Howth Road QBC and Cycle Lane (runs past his office) comes to mind.

mickcarroll10

NewDubliner wrote:

Not surprising considering their anti-Dublin policies.

What are you talking about?

Hotblack Desiato

Idiotic, uncosted, decentralisation plan not in accordance with spatial strategy.
Prioritising the Western Rail Corridor monument to stupidity over Dublin area commuter routes which would actually be *used*.
Giving Eamon O'Cuiv free rein to mouth off about how the Wesht never gets anything atall atall.
Building a toll free ring road in Cork when Dublin STILL only has an incomplete, tolled M50.
Etc.

Pythia

clown bag wrote:

Considering a blue shirt youth member posted the poll I’ll take it with a pinch of salt.

I didn't conduct the poll. Just because I posted it doesn't mean it's devalued.

ISAW

ninja900 wrote:

Idiotic, uncosted, decentralisation plan not in accordance with spatial strategy.
Prioritising the Western Rail Corridor monument to stupidity over Dublin area commuter routes which would actually be *used*.
Giving Eamon O'Cuiv free rein to mouth off about how the Wesht never gets anything atall atall.
Building a toll free ring road in Cork when Dublin STILL only has an incomplete, tolled M50.
Etc.

And this will in your view cost FF how many seats in Dublin?
And FF will as a consequence win NO extra seats outside Dublin?
You really think FF would adopt a country wide policy which they are certain will cost them seats?
Mind you Dukes did similar in FG and it cost him the leadership!

bottlerocket

Anyone think the Labour vote would be a bit higher if they weren't committed to going in with FG? Likewise with FF going in with the PD's? Personally I would prefer a FF/Lab coalition but would not vote for any of the main parties are at the moment due to who their preferred government partners are at the moment. And yeah, FF and PD are keeping their options open right now, but if the numbers add up they'll be in again for another 5 years.

Hotblack Desiato

ISAW:
1. My crystal ball needs a shine, but they WILL almost certainly lose seats. Not good given the economic boom.
2. Not on the basis of these poll numbers, but we'll see. Decentralisation was supposed to bring them a vote bonanza in the local elections, but it didn't.
3. You're making the mistake of assuming that logic applies to their choices of policy.
4. Bertie is getting rattled, e.g. his remarks about Willie Walsh and co.

NewDubliner

mickcarroll10 wrote:

What are you talking about?

Stealing (or is it asset-stripping?) public service jobs from Dublin. Constantly telling Dubliners that they have a lower quality of life than non-Dubliners.

FF has turned its back on Dublin.

The_Minister

homah_7ft wrote:

Why? How did Enda do?

****. As always. Beef casserole has more charisma.

Dirk Gently

Pythia wrote:

I didn't conduct the poll. Just because I posted it doesn't mean it's devalued.

I know you didn't conduct the poll, just seeing a blueshirt post the results of one poll makes me question if the poll is an accurate reflection of peoples opinions or whether it is simply the most favourable towards FG from a wide range of similar polls. I'm not saying it’s not accurate, I'm just wary of why this poll was chosen in isolation by a blueshirt member.

Dirk Gently

bottlerocket wrote:

Anyone think the Labour vote would be a bit higher if they weren't committed to going in with FG? Likewise with FF going in with the PD's? Personally I would prefer a FF/Lab coalition but would not vote for any of the main parties are at the moment due to who their preferred government partners are at the moment. And yeah, FF and PD are keeping their options open right now, but if the numbers add up they'll be in again for another 5 years.

I reckon labours alliance with the blueshrts is definetly costing them votes.

The_Minister

clown bag wrote:

I know you didn't conduct the poll, just seeing a blueshirt post the results of one poll makes me question if the poll is an accurate reflection of peoples opinions or whether it is simply the most favourable towards FG from a wide range of similar polls. I'm not saying it’s not accurate, I'm just wary of why this poll was chosen in isolation by a blueshirt member.

In fairness to Pythia it is a reputable polling company, and is one of the most respected in Ireland. That's why the results get on the 9 o'clock news.

oscarBravo

Firespinner wrote:

Beef casserole has more carisma.

Beef casserole drives a Mitsubishi?

NewDubliner

clown bag wrote:

I reckon labours alliance with the blueshrts is definetly costing them votes.

Just as the PD alliance with FF will hurt FF.

Any potential FF voter would do well to check before they vote if the 'meat in the sandwich' party will be brought into government by FF.

homah_7ft

Firespinner wrote:

****. As always. Beef casserole has more charisma.

Hehe. And what percentage did he get?

The_Minister

homah_7ft wrote:

Hehe. And what percentage did he get?

My memory has failed me but I think it was only in the 30's will Bertie was in the 50's. (it was on the RTÉ news)