world cup dark horses

ullu

Everyone seems to be saying that Brazil will walk it but do any of you think that a dark horse will walk away with the title like Greece did two years ago? I haven't really made my mind up but I have a strong feeling that an Eastern European team could sort it out this year.

The Czech Republic weren't taken seriously at the start Euro 2004 by punters. I stuck a few quid on them to win it outright at something like 20 or 25-1. They played good football and got really unlucky in that semi-final against the Greeks in my opinion. A Czech Republic vs Portugal final would probably have been a superb spectacle too. While their team is relatively old now, this is definitely their best opportunity given impending retirements of key players and (probably) the boss, Karol Bruckner. Their group contains Ghana, Italy and the US. It might be tricky for them but I'd expect them and Italy to progress. Paddy Power had them at 28-1 and this has been moved to 33-1.

Ukraine are suffering from injury worries to Shevchenko, Voronin and another player whose name escapes me at the moment but all should be fit by their first game. They will be missing an important defender in Sergiy Fedorov though. They were the first team to qualify from Europe and did so from a relatively tough group that contained Denmark and Greece. Their group contains Spain, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia so I'd expect them to progress from that. They are available at 50-1.

The team I know least about is Serbia and Montenegro. They also had a very impressive qualification, finishing undefeated in a group with Spain. Players we'd be familiar with are Vidic, Kezman and Zigic (that really tall striker). Their group is very tricky, it includes Argentina, the Netherlands and the Ivory Coast. It's not particularly likely that they'll progress but if they do, then they'll be in a great frame of mind to continue on. They are available at 100-1.

So does anyone else think any of these teams will put in an impressive showing?

How about any of the first time African sides?

Big Nelly

ullu wrote:

The Czech Republic weren't taken seriously at the start Euro 2004 by punters. I stuck a few quid on them to win it outright at something like 20 or 25-1.

Shows how little you know in that one comments, Czech Rep where favorites in Euro 2004 and a number of people on here including me had money on them. Howyou got odds of 25-1 is beyond me because every bookie I went into had them at very small odds because they where favorites, remember the only game they lost on the way to the Euro's was in Dublin.

gimmick

For me I think Mexico could do a job this time round. They have a relatively straight forward group, and could end up facing a somewhat over rated Dutch side in the round of 16, or an Argentina side who they know all about. From there anything can happen.

tred

ullu wrote:

Everyone seems to be saying that Brazil will walk it but do any of you think that a dark horse will walk away with the title like Greece did two years ago? I haven't really made my mind up but I have a strong feeling that an Eastern European team could sort it out this year.

The Czech Republic weren't taken seriously at the start Euro 2004 by punters. I stuck a few quid on them to win it outright at something like 20 or 25-1. They played good football and got really unlucky in that semi-final against the Greeks in my opinion. A Czech Republic vs Portugal final would probably have been a superb spectacle too. While their team is relatively old now, this is definitely their best opportunity given impending retirements of key players and (probably) the boss, Karol Bruckner. Their group contains Ghana, Italy and the US. It might be tricky for them but I'd expect them and Italy to progress. Paddy Power had them at 28-1 and this has been moved to 33-1.

Ukraine are suffering from injury worries to Shevchenko, Voronin and another player whose name escapes me at the moment but all should be fit by their first game. They will be missing an important defender in Sergiy Fedorov though. They were the first team to qualify from Europe and did so from a relatively tough group that contained Denmark and Greece. Their group contains Spain, Saudi Arabia and Tunisia so I'd expect them to progress from that. They are available at 50-1.

The team I know least about is Serbia and Montenegro. They also had a very impressive qualification, finishing undefeated in a group with Spain. Players we'd be familiar with are Vidic, Kezman and Zigic (that really tall striker). Their group is very tricky, it includes Argentina, the Netherlands and the Ivory Coast. It's not particularly likely that they'll progress but if they do, then they'll be in a great frame of mind to continue on. They are available at 100-1.

So does anyone else think any of these teams will put in an impressive showing?

How about any of the first time African sides?

Id say a Wager on Ivory Coast to make the Semis might not be a bad one. And you never know after that!.

ullu

Big Nelly wrote:

Shows how little you know in that one comments, Czech Rep where favorites in Euro 2004 and a number of people on here including me had money on them. Howyou got odds of 25-1 is beyond me because every bookie I went into had them at very small odds because they where favorites, remember the only game they lost on the way to the Euro's was in Dublin.

You're mistaken. The odds came down markedly after their first group game in Euro 2004 but only to 12-1. I remember that because I suggested to a few friends that they put on a few quid so I checked the odds again. Also, even if I was mistaken about the odds, how does that impact on one's ability to predict results? Anyway, to say they were among the favourites for that tournament prior to it beginning is wrong.

tred

Big Nelly wrote:

Shows how little you know in that one comments, Czech Rep where favorites in Euro 2004 and a number of people on here including me had money on them. Howyou got odds of 25-1 is beyond me because every bookie I went into had them at very small odds because they where favorites, remember the only game they lost on the way to the Euro's was in Dublin.

http://www.squarefootball.net/article/betting.asp?bid=25


I recall well odds of 25-1 on Czech with certain bookies well before the comp. After the comp started I remember odds tighteining as they were playing well.

Big Nelly

ullu wrote:

You're mistaken. The odds came down markedly after their first group game in Euro 2004 but only to 12-1. I remember that because I suggested to a few friends that they put on a few quid so I checked the odds again. Also, even if I was mistaken about the odds, how does that impact on one's ability to predict results? Anyway, to say they were among the favourites for that tournament prior to it beginning is wrong.

So who where favorites seeing as every TV show/web site had them tipped as favorites?

ullu

Big Nelly wrote:

So who where favorites seeing as every TV show/web site had them tipped as favorites?

Naming a few of these TV shows and websites would come in handy, as well as answering the question I put to you in my initial response.

The favorites were listed in the link tred posted above. From memory, Portugal were up there due to their home advantage aswell as their talented squad. France were defending champions and well regarded, even after their 2002 debacle. Italy and England were also up there, as usual.

Here is a link to the BBC preview of the Czech's Euro 2004 campaign.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/euro_2004/czech_rep/players_to_watch/3643981.stm

From the above link : He has brought a superb crop of players up with him from the Under-21s and his team will be dark horses in Portugal this summer.

RE*AC*TOR

There you go Nelly....

William Hill, who make France 9/2 favourites and also offer 11/2 Holland; 6/1 Italy; 13/2 Portugal; Spain; 15/2 England; 12 Germany; 14 Cz Rep; 20 Turkey; 25 Sweden

Its weird how the stuff you say, differs so drastically from reality.

Strange that.

How do you like them apples?

Vokes

ullu wrote:

Anyway, to say they were among the favourites for that tournament prior to it beginning is wrong.

Czech Republic were definitely one of the pre-tournament favourites for Euro 04. Lots of people fancied them.

If USA can get through their group at the expense of Czech Republic or Italy, i fancy them to do well and maybe evn make the semi-finals.

eirebhoy

They won't win it but the team I expect to do well is Japan. They could beat anyone on their day, including Brazil. England played them before Euro 2004 and they couldn't cope with them for a good period in the match (goal). I think they'll qualify from their group with Brazil as they're better than Croatia and Australia imo. They could then meet Italy who I have as my team for the tournament so I hope they don't get past them but I think they'll be the suprise of the tournament.

I think the bookies have got the odds completely wrong on Japan. Paddy Power have them as the 14/1 outsiders to win their group. I really can't believe they're that price. They almost knocked Brazil out of the confederations cup and their passing ability is up their with the best in the world. Have a look at the highlights of their match with Brazil:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kP5tWY3fnAM

Even their disallowed goal at the start came from world class passing (what a pass from Nakamura to set it up). They are a much, much better team than Australia, I've no doubt. I haven't seen much of Croatia but I'd say Japan are the better team. 5/2 to qualify from the group isn't great odds considering they're 250/1 to win the cup but I'll still definitely take them to qualify.

ullu

SofaKing wrote:

Czech Republic were definitely one of the pre-tournament favourites for Euro 04.

William Hill, who make France 9/2 favourites and also offer 11/2 Holland; 6/1 Italy; 13/2 Portugal; Spain; 15/2 England; 12 Germany; 14 Cz Rep; 20 Turkey; 25 Sweden

Taking these odds from an above post, I fail to see how a team placed eighth in terms of likelihood to win a sixteen team tournament could be considered the favorites.

Pigman II

Dark Horses never win the WC and (West)Germany & Brazil are the only countries to ever win their first World Cup without being hosts. Just shows what a tough competition this is to win.

Personally I wouldn't look beyond Italy, Brazil and Germany this time around. France will blow it I feel and Germany whilst looking as useful as an inflatable dartboard regularily have that nack of overachieving.

iregk

Well for some reason despite looking awful in the run up Germany constantly manage to pull off the big tournament games. They cannot be dis counted. Brazil and Italy also are good bets. The team I feel could win it altough a lack of experience may cost them is the Argies. Really fancy them.

I have backed Germany to win it and Podolski for top scorer mind you. As an outsider I've got to say the Ukraine, purely because of Sheva...

tred

Pigman II wrote:

Dark Horses never win the WC and (West)Germany & Brazil are the only countries to ever win their first World Cup without being hosts. Just shows what a tough competition this is to win.

Personally I wouldn't look beyond Italy, Brazil and Germany this time around. France will blow it I feel and Germany whilst looking as useful as an inflatable dartboard regularily have that nack of overachieving.

This could be the year a dark horse sneaks it. If you look at the international level world wide, a good organised team ,with a strong spine could do well.
Its hard to see past Brazil though...

Táck

RE*AC*TOR wrote:

Its weird how the stuff you say, differs so drastically from reality.

Strange that.

lol...:D

Revelation Joe

ullu wrote:

The Czech Republic weren't taken seriously at the start Euro 2004 by punters. I stuck a few quid on them to win it outright at something like 20 or 25-1

Don't remind me. I'm still gutted about not taking the 80-1 :eek: I saw for Baros to be top scorer

Del

PHB

As I recall, the Cezch's were pre-touranment favorites to do very very well, but I don't remember a huge number of people saying they'd win it outright, just that'd they'd nearly definally get to the semi's.

---

Here are the current odds from ladbrokes:

Brazil 9/4
England 7/1
Germany 7/1
Argentina 8/1
Italy 8/1
France 12/1
Holland 12/1
Spain 16/1
Portugal 22/1

I think Spain, Portugal and Holland are all worth on a pop on that sorta money. I think those odds are nuts, 7/1 for England, the same as Brazil? While Brazil are 2.25/1, there's no way you could put odds on Brazil, just wouldn't make sense in betting terms.

Holland are my dark horses, although I don't know if you can call them dark horses.
Van Nist for top scorer too

RE*AC*TOR

PHB wrote:

As I recall, the Cezch's were pre-touranment favorites to do very very well

that's some kind of crazy double speak.

Brian Fantana wrote:

They've done studies, you know. 60% of the time, it works every time.

tred

Big Nelly wrote:

Shows how little you know in that one comments, Czech Rep where favorites in Euro 2004 and a number of people on here including me had money on them. Howyou got odds of 25-1 is beyond me because every bookie I went into had them at very small odds because they where favorites, remember the only game they lost on the way to the Euro's was in Dublin.

We could waste some space discussing the usage of the singular one with the plural comments!!
.....considering he regards himself as having a PHD in literature when he scans through other peoples threads for mis types!! ...sorry Nelly couldnt resist...

PHB

As in they weren't favorites outright, but everyone expected them to do well.

I just found some ****ing slick odds,
Ronaldo - Brazil 20-1

Ronaldo top scorer Brazil to win the world cup! on ladbrokes.

And Ruud top scorer 14/1

btw...


Baros top scorer 50/1!!!!

It's fate!

Hippo

It's worth pointing out that despite Greece and Denmark both coming from nowhere to win the Euros, the WC always ends up in the hands of one of the usual suspects. So....Brazil, Italy, Argentina, even this lousy German team (they were rubbish last time as well). You can discount England without Rooney, Spain, Portugal, Holland and the Czechs (last two in the semis maybe). If any of this last bunch win it, feel free to pillory me here, but history is on my side....

RE*AC*TOR

A lot of the time, its down to whoever is up for it.

There are a lot of teams with outstanding players. However, England, who on paper should be a match for anyone, are seriously hindered by what appears to be a lack of organisation. Even without Rooney they have the players to go all the way. Its starting to look a right mess.

Greece won Euro 2004 because they were highly organised and hard-working.

Spain have the players, but seem never to have the leadership/management.

The same question remains over Holland. I reckon one of England/Spain/Holland will get their act together and make it to the semis. Probably most likely to be Holland.

Germany usually bring out a well organised team, so I wouldn't surprised to see them push for the semis, especially as its home-territory.

If I were to pick a (semi)dark-horse, I'd go with Italy. Sure its not the best Italian team by historical standards, but they have a siege mentality with the recent debacles in Italy.

I think question remain over Brazil's temprament. I don't think this is as good a Brazil team as for example in 1994. I would tip them to surprisingly go out early (quarters).

I reckon someone like Japan or the USA will get though to the semis as well, good solid team with a lot to prove. I don't reckon its Australia's year.

There's a lot of new faces from Africa this year. I really don't know what to make of half of them. Only Tunisia have been in the world cup before. Mostly they've been crap. This is really where my knowledge falls down. Nigeria and Cameroon have shown themselves to be no pushovers in previous world-cups, so maybe Ivory Coast or Ghana might surprise me.

South Korea have shown good spirit previously, I would think a repeat would be unlikely.

Even though France aren't the team that won the world cup a few years ago, they have Henry, and one of the softer groups.

Anyway - in short I'd put my money on Italy, or if I really want an outside bet - the USA.

Necronomicon

I might take a punt on the Ivory Coast to do well. Not win it, but get to the quarters or semi's. They really have the group of death, in there with Holland, Argentina and Serbia. Anything could happen in that group.

iregk

Lets not forget also that Italy have one of the hottest strikers in the world at the moment in Luca Toni so a few goals could do them the world of good.

The USA I thought of them but please no. Can you imagine the world if they won it, it would be almost as bad as if England won it.

RE*AC*TOR

iregk wrote:

The USA I thought of them but please no. Can you imagine the world if they won it, it would be almost as bad as if England won it.

Still, a USA / Iran match would be great!

Dont be at yourself

Germany to win, Podolski for top scorer? 85/1
Germany to win, Ballack for top scorer? 125/1

Good prices for those, Germany always seem to do well, and their home advantage should count for a lot.

Germany and Italy are the only European team who I can see winning it. And outside those two and Brazil, Argentina are also in with a shout. Can't look past those four.

Emmo

I think its going to be Brazil , Argentina or Spain to win it so my dark horse has to be Spain.

Emmo

Lex Luthor

Portugal

Táck

Argies

PiE

I too had a bet of €10 on the Czech Rep with odds of over 20-1 before the 2004 tournament started. Just saying. Also; f*ck you Greece.

Go Ghana!

Culchie

Croatia to make semis !!

Royale with Cheese

NekkidBibleMan wrote:

Germany to win, Podolski for top scorer? 85/1
Germany to win, Ballack for top scorer? 125/1

Good prices for those, Germany always seem to do well, and their home advantage should count for a lot.

You're better off sticking money on Klose to get top scorer. Podolski is a better player but he plays quite deep and Klose gets alot of close range Van Nistelrooy esque goals. If I were putting money on the highest scoring midfielder in the competition Ballack would definitely be up there.

mchurl

I also backed the Czech's at 18-1 long before the start of Euro 2004.

As for my dark horse, even though Spain never play to their potential in these tournaments, with the talent in their squad, im hoping they can give it a really good go this year. Their midfield and strike force are quality.

As for a big outside bet, Mexico wouldnt be a bad one. They wont win it, but get to a Quarter or Semi.

Kingp35

I bet on Portugal at the start of the qualfying groups and got them at 33-1. I think they are a cracking side and I had a bet on them for Euro 2004 and couldnt believe it when they lost to the Greeks. Portugal have top class players in every position except up front where they are slightly lacking but they do have Nuno Gomes and Pauleta who can upset any defense on their day.

Top class defence with Carvallho and Andrade at centre back and then Ferreira and probably Nuno Valente and left back. In midfield they have costina, petit and maniche to play the deeper roles, I expect two out of those three to play. Then they have Deco to play a more advanced role in midfield. Look at their wingers too in Ronaldo and Simao. Also have the option of Boa Moarte to come on.

Portugal have the side to beat anyone and I would certainly bet on them at the current 22-1 odds.

vorbis

Going by history, Brazil are the only team to win a world cuip on a different continent. Going by that, I'd rule out Argentina. Germany and Brazil are my favourites. Ivory Coast are my dark horses. Drogba to be top scorer!

OTliddy

Serbia & Mont and Ivory Coast would have been my 2 teams if they hadn't got such a hard group. Henry for top scorer and Mexico to reach the semis are two good bets

Lex Luthor

Kingp35 wrote:

Portugal have the side to beat anyone and I would certainly bet on them at the current 22-1 odds.

Really...worth a shot at that....I rate them highly especially with Scolari as manager. Might as well put in another bet as my first bet at 18-1 of Rooney being top scorer went down the pan a few weeks ago...:(

Royale with Cheese wrote:

You're better off sticking money on Klose to get top scorer.

I have him in my fantasy footie team....he'll get 2 in the opening game and have 4 by the end of the group stage. My monies on him...what are his odds?

T&#225 wrote: »

Argies

Hardly dark horses..:rolleyes:

p.pete

My dark horse - Big Nelly to defend his earlier posts

bohsman

All my bets revolve around laying England and Germany and backing Brazil Argentina and Italy. Outside of this Portugal and Mexico are my darkhorses.

zAbbo

Lads where are you getting these measily odds.

Ivory Coast are 100-1
Mexico are 60-1
Czech Rep are 38-1
Portugal are 26-1

Hell even France are 15-1

PHB

Which betting site are you using?

zAbbo

various to get the best odds, those were glancing round a few, mainly from betfair.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Chucky the tree

No dark horse will win this compition. Its too difficult.

Best place are to reach semi's etc. Why are people picking Mexico aswell? USA dont have a chance, they beat latvia 1-0, and lost to morocco's B team.

They wont make it past their group.

I dont rate Czechs chances either. Nedved is past his best. Hows koller doing? I thought he was injuried. If so baros will struggle aswell. France wont win it either, the latest squad trouble just confirms it for me.

RE*AC*TOR

After the match tonight I think Hungary might be dark horses.

Really really really dark.

dcarroll

Chucky the tree wrote:

No dark horse will win this compition. Its too difficult.

Best place are to reach semi's etc. Why are people picking Mexico aswell? USA dont have a chance, they beat latvia 1-0, and lost to morocco's B team.

They wont make it past their group.

I dont rate Czechs chances either. Nedved is past his best. Hows koller doing? I thought he was injuried. If so baros will struggle aswell. France wont win it either, the latest squad trouble just confirms it for me.

Mexico have arguably the best defender in the world at the moment in Rafa Marquez, and aswel is Carlos Vela in the squad?

Chucky the tree

dcarroll wrote:

Mexico have arguably the best defender in the world at the moment in Rafa Marquez, and aswel is Carlos Vela in the squad?

2 decent players wont do it. They are no where near good enough to win it. I can think of much better things to put my money on.

eirebhoy

Apparantly Germany's defence couldn't handle Japan's attacking flair tonight. Although in saying that, Japan's defence couldn't hack the physical presence when it came to set pieces.

Chucky the tree

there 7/2 to finish 2nd in their group. Great odds.

county

Chucky the tree wrote:

there 7/2 to finish 2nd in their group. Great odds.

who?