Thunderstorms Thread Only

darkman2

According to the latest GFS the thunderstorms may arrive earlier for many, as early as tomorrow evening. However its hinting at a rain shadow in the East caused by the Wicklow mts but its only one run and these things change every 6 hrs. Its also saying that the storms will be gone by midnight so a quicker evolution but IMHO I think thats to quick and precip wise it will be an outlier:rolleyes:

darkman2

Here is the latest Sattelite images. Interesting to see the development over Biscay and particularly Northern Spain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/sat.mpg


NOTE: This file may have to be downloaded...... 1.67 MB.

Snowbie

Ok the show is already starting but nothing much happening.Strikes will be moving in general North motion.

darkman2

Thats developed into some feature that from Biscay. Severe thunderstorms I reckon for Southern Ireland later.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rsfloc.gif

Danno

Cheers for the picture Snowbie. Did you get your broadband back yet? Hope so, I will be glued to the PC over the next 36hrs looking for your screenshots. Your last shots were amazingly accurate. I like the way we have county boundaries for an easy guide!!!

Snowbie

Danno wrote:

Cheers for the picture Snowbie. Did you get your broadband back yet? Hope so, I will be glued to the PC over the next 36hrs looking for your screenshots. Your last shots were amazingly accurate. I like the way we have county boundaries for an easy guide!!!

Yes Danno i only got it back on (broadband) tonight,thank God for it.Dinosaur dial up was truly iritating.Took ages to upload pics,but when i done that one it was done in seconds.look for more screenshots to be uploaded from now on here as they happen.:D

Snowbie

Not much happpening still but there are strikes out sw of us.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Not much happpening still but there are strikes out sw of us.

Snowbie I wouldnt stay up waiting for something to happen because these features tend to die away overnight and regenerate during the day. Im not expecting anything during the night time hours, the cloud on Sattelite is not that deep. It will be the morning I reckon before we see things develope properly.:)


Also just thought id draw everyone's attention to the Estofex forcast:


'A frontal boundary moves eastward reaching from western Spain to Bay of Biscay and further to western Great Britain on Wednesday, 18 UTC. To the east of this boundary ... warm airmass characterized by steep lapse rates and rather weak moisture will be present ... and models suggest increasing CAPE values due to height falls. Thunderstorms are expected to form along and east of this frontal boundary during the day due to weak QG forcing and daytime heating. Given weak vertical wind shear ... as well as high LCLs and rather weak CAPE ... organized thunderstorms are not expected to be likely.'

So essentially what they are saying is, yes definatley some storms but they wont be too organised for the reasons they have outlined. Not counting chickens yet:)

darkman2

There is a guy on NW reporting lightning strikes in the South West....anyone confirm????

billy the squid

is this anything to go by?

http://www.meteorologica.info/Euro30lightning.htm

Danno

Have you a link to the NW page DM2?

Danno

billy the squid wrote:

is this anything to go by?

http://www.meteorologica.info/Euro30lightning.htm

Ooooh that looks Sweeeet!

I can't wait till tomorrow evening.

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote:

There is a guy on NW reporting lightning strikes in the South West....anyone confirm????

Yes can confirm DM,starting to take off now to the wsw.

Danno

The 2300UTC (Midnight IST) report from Valentia should be good so...

Snowbie

Nothing showing up on doppler radar though.
Strikes every 15 seconds now.

Snowbie

Thunderstorm detected well off the sw coast now.

Snowbie

now TS detected off the sw coast,anyone confirm down in Kerry.

Snowbie

A moderate to strong TS out in the Atlantic well off the coast and is stationary atm.

Danno

I see Valentia had gone from 19c and fair at 11pm to 22c and cloudy at midnight. 51%RH though...

Danno

In fact, all the western areas are still in the 20s! And thats midnight!

Snowbie

Biscay has come alive now. 3 organised but weak cells.

Danno

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/afwa_msg_europe_ani.php <<< If you look close enough, you can see the two embedded cells beneath the thin high cloud.

netwhizkid

Here in Kerry, in the Southern Iveragh Peninsula, (Near Kenmare) I can confirm there has been nothing to report just yet. However I reckon that lightning may make landfall before sunrise, it is eerily quite and feels like something is about to erupt. I will update tomorrow with details etc.

Snowbie

Danno wrote:

http://en.allmetsat.com/images/afwa_msg_europe_ani.php <<< If you look close enough, you can see the two embedded cells beneath the thin high cloud.

YUP:cool:

Snowbie

netwhizkid wrote:

Here in Kerry, in the Southern Iveragh Peninsula, (Near Kenmare) I can confirm there has been nothing to report just yet. However I reckon that lightning may make landfall before sunrise, it is eerily quite and feels like something is about to erupt. I will update tomorrow with details etc.

Well off the coast roughly 240km from you.Probably too distant to see though.

Snowbie

Some more strikes to the south and cells to the west still going.

Danno

Hmmm. looks good for tomorrow so.

Well I am signing off.

Take care.

billy the squid

wonder will we be seeing anything on this part of the world. or will it just fizzle out before it moves that far inland.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Some more strikes to the south and cells to the west still going.

Looks promising. Thanks for those screenshots again, really useful. Im hittin the sack, I donnt expect anything significant to develope over night, rather during the day tomorrow. Fingers crossed anyway. Night.:cool:

billy the squid

The only thing that i can say is :eek:
http://www.meteorologica.info/freedata_lightning.htm