Thunderstorms Thread Only

Thunder_struck

Thunder_struck wrote:

tell me it'll be a quite night in west Dublin :eek:

Hope that wasn't a Freudian slip......I meant a quiet night, not quite a night!!

darkman2

Thunder_struck wrote:

Afternoon all, it's the thunderstorm hater here :eek:

Have been looking at

http://www.seeviewo.org/seeview/weather/lightning.htm

http://www.isleofwightweather.co.uk/live_storm_data.htm

and just wondering, is it too early for me to crack open the champagne.....I know I'm tempting fate, but so far any activity up there seems to be swerving to avoid us

Bet I'll really regret saying that, all hell will probably break loose later.

But go on, reassure me, tell me it'll be a quite night in west Dublin :eek:

I think you may be out of luck. There is a new trough of storms developing for tonight that wont miss us this time:D (though you could get lucky)

Thunder_struck

Thunder_struck wrote:

But go on, reassure me, tell me it'll be a quite night in west Dublin :eek:

Uhm I'd say your chances of having a quiet night there are 50:50

darkman2 wrote:

Looks like it will be after dark before anything reaches our shores. The first group are going up the Irish sea and into Northern Wales. There is another crop of showers further south that have more of a bearing on us.

Pressures falling now.
It's down to 1018 here now.

1020 and above was a tad limiting I think especially when you dont have the extra heat ingredient.

Any storms tonight will be imports and are more likely to be Irish sea drifters/coast huggers.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Uhm I'd say your chances of having a quiet night there are 50:50Pressures falling now.
It's down to 1018 here now.

1020 and above was a tad limiting I think especially when you dont have the extra heat ingredient.

Any storms tonight will be imports and are more likely to be Irish sea drifters/coast huggers.

Latest radar shows development in some inland parts and there is definatley an extension to the trough further southwest, whilst the showers in West Wales will more then likely drift up the Irish sea.

Theres nothing that exciting down wind for us,just a few dying thunderstorms by the looks of things.
I dont see the ingredients to pep them up en route to us

http://www.metoffice.com/satpics/latest_uk_vis.jpg

Compare the rather bad storm east of manchester on that sat pic (its a really white blob so the cloud is very very high) with whats down wind of us to get what I mean.

Some dying storms tonight maybe but nothing spectacular I think and some may see nothing at all.

Tomorrow *may* be more interesting with pressure being lower enhancing the instability.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Theres nothing that exciting down wind for us,just a few dying thunderstorms by the looks of things.
I dont see the ingredients to pep them up en route to us

http://www.metoffice.com/satpics/latest_uk_vis.jpg

Compare the rather bad storm east of manchester on that sat pic (its a really white blob so the cloud is very very high) with whats down wind of us to get what I mean.

Some dying storms tonight maybe but nothing spectacular I think and some may see nothing at all.

Tomorrow *may* be more interesting with pressure being lower enhancing the instability.

There has been development since then. It probrably isnt as good as we thought it ought to be but I think some if not most in the East and south will see a few flickers tonight. BTW Irish sea storms aint to bad for us. I saw one last night and it was spectacular:D

Thunder_struck

darkman2 wrote:

I think you may be out of luck. There is a new trough of storms developing for tonight that wont miss us this time:D (though you could get lucky)

Climbing under bed as we speak.

By the way I heard distant rumbling due south of here in the last 10 mins.
Theres some darkish waved pattern cloud in that direction.

Ryanoneill2006

Earthman wrote:

By the way I heard distant rumbling due south of here in the last 10 mins.
Theres some darkish waved pattern cloud in that direction.

Are you in North Wicklow, Earthman? I thought I heard a distant rumble to the south of me at about 5.20pm.:)

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

By the way I heard distant rumbling due south of here in the last 10 mins.
Theres some darkish waved pattern cloud in that direction.

There are echoes near the southeast coast. The IOW detector is all over the place so I cant say....Id imagine there would be if those showers get close or onto the coast.

Snowbie

Looks like you will see lightning out to see where you are Earthman,miss the east completly,that is a classic case of convective storms in England at the mo,nothing on our land at the min nor do i see it happening in the evening.
Rely on the celtic sea to spring up storms and ship them northwards tonight,Never optimistic about today,tomorrow yes.

TS south wales intensifying as is Britains,loads of strikes being blasted out of them,my console is like a nightclub with strikes being reported every 2 seconds.

Snowbie

darkman2 wrote:

There are echoes near the southeast coast. The IOW detector is all over the place so I cant say....Id imagine there would be if those showers get close or onto the coast.

That IOW detector is in the 50% accurate range for Ireland as the welsh hills sponges the signal for this country.It will throw the signal off by 50-75 miles.
Over the celtic sea or biscay it is more accurate as clear line of sight etc etc.
But there are strikes off the SE coast,probably to bright to see flashes for now.

Tracking the radar,those storms off SW wales are likely to hug landfall along the East and southeast as they move north.
Lightning may well be seen as well as thunder heard and it may get close.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

Tracking the radar,those storms off SW wales are likely to hug landfall along the East and southeast as they move north.
Lightning may well be seen as well as thunder heard and it may get close.

Yep but I think they *may* be weakening. Hopefully they come close. I tell you what though the GFS is progging thunder and rain right up the east coast during the early hours of tomorrow morning.

The sky has come alive here in the last half hour.

It's full of huge bubbling cb's and lines of ac and some anvils.
Most of that is in the eastern,southern and central part of the sky line.

To the south the cloud is carved in darker grey ripples.

I'd imagine this is the approach of the showers that have been showing in the celtic sea and off sw wales.

To answer ryanoneil 2006 I'm in South wicklow on the co wexford border near Arklow.

darkman2

Earthman wrote:

The sky has come alive here in the last half hour.

It's full of huge bubbling cb's and lines of ac and some anvils.
Most of that is in the eastern,southern and central part of the sky line.

To the south the cloud is carved in darker grey ripples.

I'd imagine this is the approach of the showers that have been showing in the celtic sea and off sw wales.

To answer ryanoneil 2006 I'm in South wicklow on the co wexford border near Arklow.

We have a thundery looking skyline too but your gonna be closest to the action (if there is any) so I hope you see a flash or something soon let us know.

I can see some smallish anvils now on the Irish sea.
:cool:

Latest radar shows that activity has actually increased to our south. North west of Southwest England for example.

Snowbie

More cells have formed 180km direct south of rosslare and are growing stronger.Detected at 18:49,unknown movement,keep you posted.

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

More cells have formed 180km direct south of rosslare and are growing stronger.Detected at 18:49,unknown movement,keep you posted.

Great stuff:)

It will be interesting to see if these cells actually last or die out quickly.

Ryanoneill2006

Snowbie wrote:

More cells have formed 180km direct south of rosslare and are growing stronger.Detected at 18:49,unknown movement,keep you posted.

Sorry Snowbie, At the risk of sounding stupid.. What are cells??

lucernarian

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn5411.png
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn544.png

Good charts for some Irish-brewed storms on Tuesday.

I hope the developing storm cells will go north or better still northwest instead of going northeast, like all the storms so far today.

Snowbie

Ryanoneill2006 wrote:

Sorry Snowbie, At the risk of sounding stupid.. What are cells??

Alright Ryan, a cell is another name for a Thunderstorm or a cluster of storms within a close vicinity,a strong cell=strong storms etc etc.
Multiple cell is TS activity over a certain location.

darkman2

To_be_confirmed wrote:

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn5411.png
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rtavn544.png

Good charts for some Irish-brewed storms on Tuesday.

I hope the developing storm cells will go north or better still northwest instead of going northeast, like all the storms so far today.

They will always tend to go Northeast because thats the direction of the jet stream atm, hence why we actually have a northerly today yet the showers are moving north:)

darkman2

Snowbie those new storms have developed further on radar. Unsure of the track. They definatley have a better baring for us.

Snowbie

Ok that cell to our south has grown in intensity and has a NNE motion in it,lets see if it become larger over the sea,fingers crossed.
The red x is a strike in real time.

Here is the attachment

darkman2

Snowbie wrote:

Ok that cell to our south has grown in intensity and has a NNE motion in it,lets see if it become larger over the sea,fingers crossed.
The red x is a strike in real time.

Here is the attachment

hmmmm may be another miss....

Thanks for that.

Ryanoneill2006

Am I right in saying that the risk of some serious thunder & lighting for the east coast have all but disappeared??

Snowbie

Right its a defo,it is moving NNe with close proximity to the East coast here tonight unless it dissipates.But it is intesifying over the sea.

I have also detected a strike in the midlands,anybody confirm that around offaly.

Hal1

wouldnt say so lots of activity in the irish sea, and further inland i can see some isolated thunder storms, the night is still young and theres more storms developing.

snowbie, yes i can confirm that i see it too.

Snowbie

Snowbie wrote:

Right its a defo,it is moving NNe with close proximity to the East coast here tonight unless it dissipates.But it is intesifying over the sea.

I have also detected a strike in the midlands,anybody confirm that around offaly.

I'd row faster that it to be honest...

Snowbie

Ryanoneill2006 wrote:

Am I right in saying that the risk of some serious thunder & lighting for the east coast have all but disappeared??

For land generated storms was a never today,not much convection out there to spawn TS,but the sea air is more unstable than the air over land and is producing several storms over the celtic sea.

Now they are a long way off but they seem to be moderate in strenght and moving towards the cental Irish sea.