Bullish or bearish & renter or owner

miju

as the title suggests think this would make for a more interesting and informative poll

so without further ado

ronbyrne2005

MAybe better in Afterhours as those who look at use accom/prop arent/are less likely to be a representative sample

miju

just an iccle bump as wud be interested in getting a good response on this poll

CiaranC

I do not own property and am bullish

Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever, but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

Does that make me a Bull or a Bear?

mikemac

I do not own property and am bearish

CiaranC wrote:

Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever, but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

Does that make me a Bull or a Bear?

I agree with you 100%

shoegirl

I think we will end up with a scenario something like the UK in the early 1990s. I would guess that the market is going to break up into areas where demand continues at a frenzy or collapses altogether. We will see a big contrast between high-demand areas where there is still economic growth and mostly rural regions or outer-outer suburbia where the pace did not keep up.

The end of tax breaks to the 2nd home industry may weaken prices of holiday homes as as tax breaks have effectively pushed prices higher. Again more attractive areas will continue to have high demand, with dismal one horse towns, and areas with very poor infrastructure likely to collapse.

Rents already sagged due to heavier competition - will become a particular problem in "cheaper" Dublin regions like West and North Dublin. Will be slow to rise as increasing dependence on rent allowance tenants will make it harder to put up rents rapidly.

miju

CiaranC wrote:

Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever, but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

Does that make me a Bull or a Bear?

that would make you a bear

faceman

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

as the title suggests think this would make for a more interesting and informative poll

so without further ado

dude you need to specify over what period you are referring to otherwise you poll is pointless. How many years are you asking people to respond on?

miju

think it's pretty much a gimme that i meant present time

miju

this is defo turning up some interesting results this far

faceman

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

think it's pretty much a gimme that i meant present time

What present time? 6 mnths? 1 year? 3 years. Its still not clear dude.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

Cantab.

I own a property and am bearish

Yeah, interesting poll alright (despite the obvious plagarism!).

Sentiment does indeed count for a hell of a lot in a market and the results here, provided by boardsies, show a clear negative feeling. I wonder though what your average Sunday Independent reading, amateur property investor would think though?

miju

Cantab. wrote:

Yeah, interesting poll alright (despite the obvious plagarism!).

was meant as a quiet nod of the cap for the poll in the first place Cantab

SouperComputer

hmm wonder if Dev or any of the admins would put this up as an announcement?

Ive put linkage in my sig anyway, im very interested to see the results.

Might help to edit your first post and explain what bullish\bearish mean though, im not sure a lot of people understand and it could give a false reading.

miju

indeed think it would be a very decent indicator of sentiment in the market jaysis if enough people answered it you could even get a news story out of it LOL

SouperComputer

jaysis if enough people answered it you could even get a news story out of it LOL

My thoughts exactly

miju

have posted in mods forum for admins to have a look see

miju

caeser put his thumb down LOL

miju

thanks Victor, smccarrick, gandalf for stickying (whichever one of ye it was LOL)

faceman

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

have posted in mods forum for admins to have a look see

dude im not trying to knock you but if you want this poll to carry some weight to journalists or even with the general public then you need to get more specific.

We both know that both you and i have very differing opinions but that doesnt mean that i dont respect your views or sentiments!

If you want the poll to carry credibility then i suggest you define what period you are asking voters to speculate over (i suggest doing both a short term [2 years] and long term poll [10 years]. I suggest also you also ask voters to specify their age group (or age). It would be no harm to ask voters to specify their buying power or interest in the subject. (the problem with polls is that you often get very opinionated people voting which incorrectly weights a poll)

If anyone feels im being unfair please do feedback.

miju

you make a very fair point faceman the origin of this poll was as a result of another poll and TBH wasn't fully thought out , might actually do what you suggest though if i get a chance soon enough

Cantab.

I own a property and am bearish

miju wrote:

you make a very fair point faceman the origin of this poll was as a result of another poll and TBH wasn't fully thought out , might actually do what you suggest though if i get a chance soon enough

I think it's a good poll. We can get more and more detailed till the cows come home, but let's not loose sight of the fact that we're only getting a feel for what people think. It's a poll, not a referendum. The terms 'bull' and 'bear' are very general and are akin to a sort of hot or cold feeling. The slight difference of opinion between owners and non-owners is rather interesting. I was quite surprised to see that the propotion of bulls to bears is relatively similar amongst owners and non-owners. I would have expected to see a much bigger disparity.

miju

Cantab. wrote:

The slight difference of opinion between owners and non-owners is rather interesting. I was quite surprised to see that the propotion of bulls to bears is relatively similar amongst owners and non-owners. I would have expected to see a much bigger disparity.

have to agree , altough only a quick / non precise poll it is yielding some interesting results

nimble75

> Originally Posted by CiaranC
>Wheres the middle of the road option? I dont think the market can rise forever,
>but dont see a crash either. More like a slowdown in growth, with possible price
>drops in the more exposed areas, followed by an eventual recovery.

RUBBISH!!!!!!!!!!!

There's a HUGE crash on the way, MARK MY WORDS. Soft landing? NOT A CHANCE!! The vested interests will toe that line (banks, politicians etc..) but the fact is that property in the developed world in general is grossly overinflated, due to an abundance of cheap credit and other economic factors...Irish property being the location of possibly the most severe overinflation in the western world..... in Spain, NZ and USA for example, the saturation of new construction housing and cheap mortgages fueled a huge property boom as it has here, but they are a year or two ahead of us in the cycle, and in those countries now, people wanting to sell propery are having serious problems, needing to discount significantly to get a sale...

People buying property in Ireland at the moment are going to get severely burnt...as will many people who have purchased in the last few years with large mortgages...

Just check this article out...from an economic analyst who knows what he's talking about...you have to stop just looking in Ireland to figure out where things are going and look at things from a global economic perspective, something that our own politicians certainly don't do.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/saxena082206.html

Soft landing??? NO WAY!!!! I'm looking forward to buying a mansion for a knock-down price in 3-4 years.

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

Soft landing??? NO WAY!!!! I'm looking forward to buying a mansion for a knock-down price in 3-4 years.

Funny that, I know a guy who's been waiting to buy a Mansion at a knock-down price in the next 3-4 years since 1997, when he decided that a 2 bedroom apartment in Ranelagh was grossly overpriced at £60,000 and that the bubble would have to burst soon.

miju

magpie wrote:

Funny that, I know a guy who's been waiting to buy a Mansion at a knock-down price in the next 3-4 years since 1997, when he decided that a 2 bedroom apartment in Ranelagh was grossly overpriced at £60,000 and that the bubble would have to burst soon.

well he wont have to wait much longer seeing as how prices have now started to drop

better late than never

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

Yes, but prices are not going to reverse back to pre - '97 levels

miju

magpie wrote:

Yes, but prices are not going to reverse back to pre - '97 levels

why not if they can rise 40% in 2 years they can sure as hell fall well back below that

would you care to offer your reasoning for it not falling back to 1997 levels other than they just wont.

if you dont think they will fall back to 1997 why not ? and to what level will they fall to and whats your reasoning?

magpie

I do not own property and am bullish

In 1997 property was undervalued in Ireland, all that's happened in the last 10 years or so is that its caught up with equivalent European Capitals. Its now about on a par with London.

miju

difference is London is a central european/world economy so you cant really compare ireland (or dublin for that matter) with london