What will happen to Iraq?

RedPlanet

"Gunmen have abducted Iraq's deputy electricity minister and 19 bodyguards after ambushing their convoy in eastern Baghdad.

Deputy Minister Raad al-Harith was travelling in a convoy near Baghdad's Sadr City district when gunmen in up to seven vehicles wearing military uniforms blocked their way and kidnapped them.

Separately, the US ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, has said the recent death of the al-Qaeda leader in Iraq, Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, has not had any impact on the level of violence in Iraq."

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0704/iraq01.html

It's quite obvious at this point that the violence in Iraq is pretty much unabated.
The "Collation of the willing" hasn't a grip on things and at this late stage, doesn't appear to have the will nor power to change things.
The Iraqi security forces also seem powerless.
I doubt the place will devolve into all out open civil war, it wouldn't suprise me if it did however. Rather i see the current situation: perhaps a low-level civil war continuing.
I suppose i forsee the American's holding onto their palace in the "Green Zone", the Aerport and maybe some choice oil fields at best.
I imagine the situation continually brinking on pure chaos and anarchy.
Becoming a BlackHole where resources are put it, but just disappear into the void. Eventually affecting in a destabisling way, surrounding states.
Very like Afghanistan during the Taliban reign.
It's like the many mujahidin factions and the Americans are today in a simbiotic relationship in both Iraq and Afganistan.
Eventually you'd have to think the yanks at home who are paying this will grow sick of it, but then again they are easily manipulated and the media generally is part and parcel of the corporate facist state over there.
So long as the oil flows I reckon today we see the new "status quo" regarding Iraq.
Which makes me wonder will the insurgents target the oil instead?
Could make the difference in the grand scheme of things.
Or will the present situation continue til Peak Oil hits the yanks at home and folks question the path their Fuhrer have led.

banaman

I agree, although I think the fact that most security for the oilfields and installations is in the hands of private security firms (who's employees are usually ex-military but are paid substantialy more) means that the oil will continue to flow. Lets face it all the reconstruction companies tie into Bush and BIG OIL so its obvious where their priorities are going to be.
There were some interesting articles on either zmag or common dreams over the last couple of months detailing the lack of success and shoddy workmansship of all reconstruction projects except the new US embassy compound.
They have no interest in a stable, united and powerful Iraqi nation who would demand control of their own oil resources. The present situation suits the US. Their (the US) major problem is likely to be from the Kurds since most of the oil is in the Kurdish controlled areas. However because of the absolute refusal of Turkey and Iran to consider any autonomy to their own Kurdish minority the US cannot be seen to aid the formation of a Kurdish state in Iraq. The Turks are already engaged in low-level warfare in Kurdish areas of Turkey and the more stability and therefore power the Iraqi Kurds obtain the more likely a cross-border war will occur.

Manic Moran

FWIW, the guards screwed up: They had thought that the people surrounding them were government forces, so provided no resistance.

When they figured it out and were taken prisoner, they staged a breakout and took the minister home with them.

NTM

fly_agaric

RedPlanet wrote:

pure chaos and anarchy...
Becoming a BlackHole ...the void... Eventually affecting in a destabisling way, surrounding states.

...Afghanistan during the Taliban reign.

... mujahidin factions and the Americans ... in a simbiotic relationship in both Iraq and Afganistan.
... yanks... easily manipulated ...the media generally is part and parcel of the corporate facist state...
...Peak Oil hits the yanks at home ... their Fuhrer

I'd advise you to take a few panadol and get a good night's sleep.

Then if the day is good tomorrow (lets hope...), get out in air for a good long walk. Play a bit of football maybe (if you can escape...)?

Stay away from the newspapers, the tv, and pcs as far as possible!:o

You'll feel much, much better!

banaman wrote:

The present situation suits the US.

How so? It is an utter disaster.

I suppose you could argue that the situation in Iraq may suit a few US companies, but at this point the security is so bad that the reconstruction big bucks cannot flow and alot of what is spent gets wasted on paying private security groups rather than going to US/UK engineering companies, contractors etc.

Manic Moran

fly_agaric wrote:

How so? It is an utter disaster.

I suppose you could argue that the situation in Iraq may suit a few US companies, but at this point the security is so bad that the reconstruction big bucks cannot flow and alot of what is spent gets wasted on paying private security groups rather than going to US/UK engineering companies, contractors etc.

You might be on to something there... Perhaps Bush / Blair isn't funded by the oil companies, but by the private security companies?

NTM

magick

i think the US is in iraq to stay, not in going around the streets maintaining security but as in building bases there to project their power the region. However i do see that if the US/UK forces pull out largely from the country or patrolling the streets Iraq will go into a civil war like Yugosalvia,sunni shiitie,kurd state