Stocks For Long Term Hold ~4 Years

Topcat101

What Irish stocks would you guys recommend for Long term Holds ?

Any Oil producing companies traded here ?

6K to invest.....

Notorious BIG

I have long term positions in Elan,Irish L & P, Newcourt and Ryanair. I dont know much about oil companies

Black Swan

Just guessing, I would suggest a defensive position. Pharmaceuticals are defensive long, as are other health care stocks. Elan I believe is the biggest Irish pharm. Also, the EU and the North America are ageing and will need increased health care (Baby Boomers are ageing). If you think global, Johnson & Johnson (although based in the USA, manufacturers in over 80 countries). I would stay away from real estate, as The Economist has suggested that the bubble is about to burst.

Oil? Who knows? Not too long ago it was $19 USD a barrel, now they are guessing it will hit $80 USD, which is ridiculous! King George II is restricting the supply from Iraq either intentionally or through incompetence, driving up the price (he was a former oil man which looks suspicious). USA based petroleum corporations are posting the highest profits in history. This cannot be sustained forever, and a correction will eventually occur, but when, who knows? China is also driving demand to fuel its growth, but $80 USD a barrel still makes no sense.

Topcat101

Was thinking of Grafton group or Kingspan maybe but if the building boom pitters out might be in trouble.

Maybe Dell or Google, but starting to think to Bubbel may brust soon for GOOG.

If I could find a Chineness bank or construction campany that trades in the US might go with them..... but...

Only problem buying stocks in the US will be the conversation rate dollar back to Euro in a few years time, thats why I was going to stay local.

BendiBus

Why pick individual stocks? With a small amount like 6K, would you consider mutual funds instead? You benefit from owning equities but can have great diversity in your holdings which reduces risk enormously.

damnyanks

If you are going for 4 years pick up some bonds. Interest rates are going up duh

Diarmuid

What's the phrase again "Good companies don't necessarily mean good stocks"?

Just throwing that in there :-)

If I were you I'd buy a European ETF.

Topcat101

Diarmuid wrote:

What's the phrase again "Good companies don't necessarily mean good stocks"?

Just throwing that in there :-)

If I were you I'd buy a European ETF.

Not the first time I heard that one, I friend is holding Microsoft for 3 years no gain.


Read up on EFT how can I buy and how much does it cost ?

Diarmuid

Topcat101 wrote:

Read up on EFT how can I buy and how much does it cost ?

They are funds that are traded on the stock market like stocks, You can buy one that tracks the Irish market. There are a lot on the market now so you need to do a bit of research into it. You can buy them with most online dealers. Each ETF have different pricings but generally the more exotic they are the more expensive.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

silverharp

Blue_Lagoon wrote:

Just guessing, I would suggest a defensive position. Pharmaceuticals are defensive long, as are other health care stocks. Elan I believe is the biggest Irish pharm. Also, the EU and the North America are ageing and will need increased health care (Baby Boomers are ageing). If you think global, Johnson & Johnson (although based in the USA, manufacturers in over 80 countries). I would stay away from real estate, as The Economist has suggested that the bubble is about to burst.

Oil? Who knows? Not too long ago it was $19 USD a barrel, now they are guessing it will hit $80 USD, which is ridiculous! King George II is restricting the supply from Iraq either intentionally or through incompetence, driving up the price (he was a former oil man which looks suspicious). USA based petroleum corporations are posting the highest profits in history. This cannot be sustained forever, and a correction will eventually occur, but when, who knows? China is also driving demand to fuel its growth, but $80 USD a barrel still makes no sense.

I agree with your first paragraph, I've read a few opinons that say there will be sector rotation into large caps staples, this is good for US citizens as it partially hedges against any declines in the dollar as well


The oil is a tricky one, I believe the market has mispriced oil stocks, most oil stocks are trading at multiples of less then 10, and are basically valuing oil stocks at $40 oil. My view is that although there is a 10-15$ terror premium at the moment (which may vanish coming up to the US elections in Nov) the long term trend for oil is up, the world is depending on OPEC countries that probably lied about their reserves in the 1980's to get extra quota. Oil like anything comes down to demand and supply, at what price do you stop consuming oil? Has there been any major discoveries as large as the North Sea since the 1970's? No
If you have the cash I would have oil and gas stocks as a hedge against future price spikes. Although oil companies are making record profits their margins havn't gone up, they are just making the same margin on bigger numbers.

Topcat101

Ya been looking at BP and Exxon, either have moved much in the last 2 years....

Any suggestions ??

Sonnenblumen

Topcat101 wrote:

What Irish stocks would you guys recommend for Long term Holds ?

Any Oil producing companies traded here ?

6K to invest.....

Top Divi Paying Cos include the financial cos (BoI, AIB, Il&P), Anglo also a great stock and Co. Other must haves (portfolio) iclude Greencore, CRH, Kerry, IN& M and Kingaspan. There are others but these are no brainers.

All very solid, good capital appreciation on top of divis (3.5-4.2%+).

Sonnenblumen

Diarmuid wrote:

What's the phrase again "Good companies don't necessarily mean good stocks"?

Just throwing that in there :-)

If I were you I'd buy a European ETF.

Any chance you could expand this piece of wisdom?

Bluehair

Sonnenblumen wrote:

Top Divi Paying Cos include the financial cos (BoI, AIB, Il&P), Anglo also a great stock and Co. Other must haves (portfolio) iclude Greencore, CRH, Kerry, IN& M and Kingaspan. There are others but these are no brainers.

All very solid, good capital appreciation on top of divis (3.5-4.2%+).

Personally i would advise avoiding Irish banking stocks for the foreseeable future, they're effectively a play on the Irish property market and some such as AIB are extremely exposed to this.

Bear in mind not a single international expression of interest has been made for what are currently the most profitable banks in Europe. Reason? they're aware of the over-weighted reliance on lending/mortgage growth in Ireland.

nikolaitr

I say avoid Ireland, it over priced as-is. Go with somewhere on the up and up Germany, Japan evne Russia if you want to do the research. Find a good company before the Stock Analysts do and it will multiply many times over..Ireland is over saturated at the moment.

BendiBus

nikolaitr wrote:

Find a good company before the Stock Analysts do and it will multiply many times over..

And there lies the difficulty in stock picking. There are gazillions of stock analysts across the world. How lucky would you have to be to spot something they've all managed to miss?

It's kind of like advising someone how to win the 100m sprint at the Olympics - "Run faster than anyone else and you'll win!". Factual but useless.

dunkamania

damnyanks wrote:

If you are going for 4 years pick up some bonds. Interest rates are going up duh

My sarcasm detector isnt working too well these days,but


Int rates up= bond prices down

nikolaitr

BendiBus wrote:

And there lies the difficulty in stock picking. There are gazillions of stock analysts across the world. How lucky would you have to be to spot something they've all managed to miss?

It's kind of like advising someone how to win the 100m sprint at the Olympics - "Run faster than anyone else and you'll win!". Factual but useless.

Actually not really, most stock pickers are prevented by company guide lines from picking certain stocks, this is particularily true of the pension companies. These guidelines can rule out a large percentage of stocks in a market,just cause thy don't fill a certain criteria. Basic idea is find a good small company,yes stok analysts would have heard f it but they probably wouldn't be allowed to pick it until it reaches a certain size, and when that time comes,well you know the rest

Sonnenblumen

nikolaitr wrote:

Actually not really, most stock pickers are prevented by company guide lines from picking certain stocks, this is particularily true of the pension companies. These guidelines can rule out a large percentage of stocks in a market,just cause thy don't fill a certain criteria. Basic idea is find a good small company,yes stok analysts would have heard f it but they probably wouldn't be allowed to pick it until it reaches a certain size, and when that time comes,well you know the rest

Can you give an example, AFAIK any stock listed for example on ISEQ would be on the radar of most pension funds +/- ? Or do you mean below mid-cap?

Some penny stocks eventually make it 'big' but suspect most are 'Boiler Room' scams that just burn up money and shareholders alike!

nikolaitr

Well its known that most stock pickers are limited to a number of stocks which the company deems worthy. The stocks the company chooses are usually old reliable companys that carry little risk.

Also most investment houses do not allow stock pickers to go long in stocks, in which the company is short in. If an investment house has 30 stock brokers with 5 dealing short this could really limit the amount of stocks on offer especially on such a small market as the ISEQ.

Yes the analyst has alot of time,experience and research behind them but thy are also tied up with alot of bureaucracy

justfortherecor

I got a fabulous tip from an investment analyst 18months ago and it has performed pretty well for me so far.

Check out the American rail freight industry, namely Union Pacific (UNP), Burlington North (BNI) and CSX Corp. (CSX).

Capital Appreciation has been excellent for me but they have stuttered a bit in the last month. I still think they could perform better as the price of oil continues to climb and firms adopt Rail as the primary method of transporting heavy goods across country.