Raskolnikov's Tennis Betting Thread!

Raskolnikov

My forté is tennis betting so I've thought, so, here's my thread about it. Be aware that 1 unit for me is €50 and that I'll be constantly seeking the best prices on matches.

Gstaad Open.

Lopez 23/24 to beat Ramirez-Hidalgo (1 unit)
Ljubicic 4/1 NOT to beat Chiudinelli 2-0 in sets (1 unit)

Baastad Open.

Calleri 5/4 to beat Soderling (1 unit)


Odds courtesy of betfair.com and Pinnacle.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Lopez 23/24 to beat Ramirez-Hidalgo (1 unit)

Bet Won
After an inital scare, my boy Lopez goes on to win this 2-1.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Ljubicic 4/1 NOT to beat Chiudinelli 2-0 in sets (1 unit)

Bet Won
Chiudinelli just won the opening set of this match in a close tie-break. Just as long as the match doesn't end in a retirement, this one is in the bag.

jobless

well done....keep em coming...might stick them in a small accum

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Calleri 5/4 to beat Soderling (1 unit)

Bet Won
That gives me 3/3 which is attributable more to luck than actual tipping ability.

If anyone wants to follow a tip of mine, I strong suggest that they do NOT use accumulators, you'll definitely lose in the long run.

+€310.42

Bateman

I was on Ljubicic in the Match Odds, had 2pts on, and the poxy match wasn't played for 2 days because of the weather, ended up locking up liquidity for 2 days of football, and the winnings weren't even worth it.

Raskolnikov

Mercedes Cup

Simon 10/11 to beat Mayer (1 unit)

Amersfoort

De Bakker 5/4 to beat Gicquel (1 unit)

On De Bakker, he's this years Boys Wimbledon champion, only 17 but he still managed to wipe the floor with Benneteau a few days ago. Not only that, but he's on home soil here so that will hopefully give him an extra edge to win this.

Expect to hear a lot more from this young fella in the future.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Simon 10/11 to beat Mayer (1 unit)

Bet lost
+€260.42

In retrospect, this game was a very poor call.

Raskolnikov wrote:

De Bakker 5/4 to beat Gicquel (1 unit)

The young Turk looking good here, just won the first set 6-4, a little easier than the score suggested.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

De Bakker 5/4 to beat Gicquel (1 unit)

Bet Lost

The kid fell apart in the last two sets. Sorry I didn't update sooner.

+€210.42

Generali Open

Calleri 9/10 to beat Massu (1 unit)

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Calleri 9/10 to beat Massu (1 unit)

Bet Won
+€255.42

My boy Calleri makes it 2/2 for me with a convincing win to put me back on track.

Goodluck2me

Raskolnikov wrote:

Baastad Open..

if theres a funnier name for a competition i am unaware of it!

Raskolnikov

In-play bet.

Generali Open.

Verdasco at 15/2 NOT to beat Lapentti 2-0 after Verdasco takes the first set 6-4 (1/2 unit).

Raskolnikov

Verdasco breaks Lapentti straight away, 6-4, 2-0. :mad:

Still, was worth a bash.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Verdasco breaks Lapentti straight away, 6-4, 2-0. :mad:

Still, was worth a bash.

Broken again, 4-0

Raskolnikov

Play suspended briefly, streaker on court.

5-1 now to Verdasco, bah.

Have a few picks for the US Open, the favourite at the moment is Federer who's at 3/5 to win, the value lies elsewhere chaps.

Paddy Irishman

Just wondering Raskolnikov if you ever trade tennis matches as opposed to placing outright bets, it seems to be the way most exchange punters bet on tennis these days?

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Verdasco at 15/2 NOT to beat Lapentti 2-0 after Verdasco takes the first set 6-4 (1/2 unit).

Bet Lost
+€230.42

Lapentti looses 6-4, 6-4 despite a gallant comeback in the second set from 5-1 down.

Paddy Irishman wrote:

Just wondering Raskolnikov if you ever trade tennis matches as opposed to placing outright bets, it seems to be the way most exchange punters bet on tennis these days?

Indeed I do trade matches (10% of the time), however for the purposes of this thread it's not really possible unless I want to leave myself open to accusations of after-timing. The reason I tend to stick to outright betting is because

• It's less risky
• It's less time consuming
• I pick the price
• It's something I know
• It works for me

If the conditions are right though, I will get involved in trading a match (eg. Dimitry Tursunov loses the first set and is a break down in the second).

imalegend

ok whats the call for this week??

Raskolnikov

Toronto Masters

Murray 3/5 to beat Henman (2 units), I got my odds at Pinnacle earlier today, price is shortening as we speak though.

Murray on decent form coming into this and the hard court will suit him. Henman was recently demolished by Tursunov (a volatile big serving player who I'd consider akin to Murray) with only a couple of matches played in the last few weeks. Going with two units on this as it reflects my confidence in the outcome.

Raskolnikov

Tiger Tim being demolished in this battle of Britain.

1-0 to Murray. One to go my lad.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Toronto Masters

Murray 3/5 to beat Henman (2 units), I got my odds at Pinnacle earlier today, price is shortening as we speak though.

Bet Won
+€290.42

Murray over powers Henman in the first set easily, but makes heavy work of the second set, blowing a 5-2 lead. Luckily, he brings the bacon home.

As a side note to betfairians here. A little tip on me. Watch out for that lad Andy Murray. Once his match goes in-play. Lay him at 1.01. Obviously it won't get matched straight away but you'll be near the front of the queue if he does. Then watch him blow what ever lead he has, his price will shoot up Just don't get too greedy!

I've been neglecting my tipping duties as of late, I'll make sure to rectify this.

Raskolnikov

Tursunov @ 5/2 to beat Haas in the Toronto Masters.

Match has just started so I can't include this as a tip

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Tursunov @ 5/2 to beat Haas in the Toronto Masters.

Match has just started so I can't include this as a tip

Turnsuov romps home in the third set to win 2-1 in sets. This was a huge shock to the betfair market After Haas levelled the match 1-1, the market was convinced Haas would go on to win it.

Since I only got a chance to post this after the match had started (Tursunov hadn't even held the first game by the way), I won't be counting it as a win in this thread.

Bateman

I had a bit of a result last night on the Henman-Murray match. Layed Murray at 1.02 at 4-1 in the second, Tiger Tim came back to make it 5-5, and Murray was then available to back at 1.37. Get in!

Mezcita

Raskolnikov, not sure you will see this in time but what do you think about Johansson to beat Malisse in Rogers Cup 3rd Rnd this evening?

Johansson is coming back from injury but his record against Malisse is 4-1. Got him at 5/4 on Stan James.

Raskolnikov

Mezcita wrote:

Johansson is coming back from injury but his record against Malisse is 4-1. Got him at 5/4 on Stan James.

Malisse is one of the most unpredictable players on the ATP tour, there really is no telling what the outcome will be with him. Form especially goes out the window (which is a good thing because he's actually been doing well as of late). However, despite Johansson's record, I would still have Malisse as the slight favourite here. So I reckon the odds you've got on Malisse would be about right. If I was pushed on this, I would go for Johansson to win 2-0, I imagine you could get 4/1 or 5/1 on it, if Malisse collapses, he'll do it spectacularily

Mezcita

Excellent. Thanks for the info.

Raskolnikov

Here's a wild one for you guys. Obviously Federer is easily the favourite here but I simply can't say no to such a ridiculous price. You'll only get this at pinnacle.com, betfair have 27/1 at the moment only.

Toronto Masters

Tursunov @ 31/1 to beat Federer (1/4 unit)

Here's my saver on the bet . . .

Federer @ 9/2 NOT to win 2-0 in sets (3/4 unit)

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Tursunov @ 31/1 to beat Federer (1/4 unit)

Bet Lost

The FedExpress rumbles on after a 2-1 win.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Federer @ 9/2 NOT to win 2-0 in sets (3/4 unit)

Bet Won

Tursunov manages to nick a set before getting demolished.

+€446.67 profit.

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Malisse is one of the most unpredictable players on the ATP tour, there really is no telling what the outcome will be with him. Form especially goes out the window (which is a good thing because he's actually been doing well as of late). However, despite Johansson's record, I would still have Malisse as the slight favourite here. So I reckon the odds you've got on Malisse would be about right. If I was pushed on this, I would go for Johansson to win 2-0, I imagine you could get 4/1 or 5/1 on it, if Malisse collapses, he'll do it spectacularily

Malisse won 2-0 although the result was flattering to Malisse, unlucky mate.

Mezcita

Ah sure no worries. Had a bit on Derry to beat Gretna which eased the pain a wee bit.

Raskolnikov

Back with a vengence.

New Haven Open

Ramirez-Hidalgo @ 6/5 to beat Christophe Rochus. (1 unit)

Awful player on awful form. Has a midget brother who also plays tennis. Needs I say more?