Raskolnikov's Tennis Betting Thread!

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Ramirez-Hidalgo @ 6/5 to beat Christophe Rochus. (1 unit)

Bet Won

Bit of a scare in the second set when Rochus went a break up :eek: Ruebenio held him off thought to win 2-0.

Plays for the US Open coming up tonight.

Raskolnikov

+506.67

I'll have 1 unit of US Open picks before the draw is made and another 1 unit after the draw

westtip

Nice thread, I made a few quid on in play in Wimbledon but not really got involved much in tennis betting, 10 points profit in less than two months and I think only on 12.5 points turnover, well done, and exceptional 80% Profit on Turnover, is this a purple patch or your norm!! be honest now.


I like your style with some of those saver bets, nice drip drip drip of profit. Will be looking out for this in future.

Bateman

The Racing Post is reccommending opposing Davydenko today at evens, but I wouldn't be that pushed. Nothing jumping out at me, although I will keep an eye out for Max Mirnyi in the next round after he obliged yesterday.

Raskolnikov

Bateman wrote:

The Racing Post is reccommending opposing Davydenko today at evens, but I wouldn't be that pushed.

Davydenko got creamed last year by Chela 2-1 in the second round (he received a bye for the first round). However, evens isn't a bad price at all. I would consider backing him to win 2-1 in sets, will take a look at the prices when I get home from work.

Bateman

Raskolnikov wrote:

Davydenko got creamed last year by Chela 2-1 in the second round (he received a bye for the first round). However, evens isn't a bad price at all. I would consider backing him to win 2-1 in sets, will take a look at the prices when I get home from work.

If I had bf in work I wouldn't do a tap all day.

Raskolnikov

First pick for the US Open!

David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit) (betfair.com, the bricks and mortar bookies offering as little as 30/1 on him )

Absolutely massive price for the Argentinian here considering that he's no. 4 seed and won't come up against Federer, Nadal or Ljubicic until the semi-finals at least. Now, assuming that Bandy can make it to the semi-finals and the other seed (Nadal) does likewise, I would actually fancy Bandy. Rafael has proven himself to be the clay court king, however it's a different situation on hard courts. Not to mention, he's looked a little out of sorts as of late. Of course, Bandy has been in terrible form as of late, however, I expect him to ramp up the standard for this years last Major.

Raskolnikov

Bateman wrote:

The Racing Post is reccommending opposing Davydenko today at evens, but I wouldn't be that pushed. Nothing jumping out at me, although I will keep an eye out for Max Mirnyi in the next round after he obliged yesterday.

Haha, The Racing Post get it wrong AGAIN, Davydenko crushed Clement in straight sets.

Incidently, I see someone just got 119/1 in Nalbanian for the US Open, an absolutely stonking price. You ought to stick €4 up at 120 Bateman! You'll be able to trade out of it later on for lots less.

westtip

Raskol, can you really see past Fedex in the US barring injury?

Raskolnikov

westtip wrote:

Raskol, can you really see past Fedex in the US barring injury?

U.S. Open draw here.

Federer's first match is against the youngster Yeu-Tzuoo Wang. A banker win for Fed.

His second match will be against Rudeski or Henman. I reckon Rudeski could edge Henman out here. Whoever Fed gets, another banker win.

The most likely opponent for his third match would be Jonas Bjorkman, you may remember Federer crushing him emphatically at Wimbledon. I don't see other possible opponents; Gilles Muller or Vincent Spadea posing any threat at all. Banker win Fed.

Fourth match is where things become a little less clear cut. I would think Fed's likely opponents would be either Gaston Gaudio, Sam Querrey or JC Ferrero. Gaudio has a fairly weak service, he's a clay courter and he's not getting any younger. All these factors will mitigate against him and if Fed plays him, it'll be a banker win. I rate Querrey as a future top 20 player at least, I reckon. Big serve, good attitude, however, he ain't good enough to beat Fed. Banker win for Fed. Lastly, we have former world no. 1 JCF. This guy was proclaimed as the next hot thing in tennis a few years back, rather like Nadal is being now. I thought he was reclaiming some of that former quality in Cincy recently, that was until Andy Roddick made a mug out of him in the finals. Even at his old best, I doubt he could beat Feds on hard courts. Banker Fed.

Fifth match takes us into the quarter finals. Obviously, there's no such thing as a banker but this is the stage where Federer could realistically lose. I see Dimitri Tursunov, Tomas Berdych and James Blake as being his likely opponents. Tursunov and Berdych I reckon would be dispatched without too much difficulty. Blake is a different kettle of fish however. He has the capability of playing some beautiful tennis like when he defeat Nadal earlier this Summer in straight sets. However, he has absolutely rotten form coming into this. I doubt he has the skill to beat Fed, however, if he gets to this stage, I'd certainly expect him to give the Fed Express a run for its money.

Things get far too difficult to speculate once you get to the semi finals stage. Assuming the Fed Express doesn't get derailed at this moment, I shall probably be laying him. Lots of possible good players he could be up against like my boy Bandy, Andy Murray, Robby Ginepri and Tommy Haas. After that it's Ljubicic, Nadal, Davydenko, Robredo, Hewitt, etc in the final. So I'll let you make the decsion on that

westtip

Thanks for the excellent analysis, Fedex owes me nothing, his first wimbledon win was a big win for me and since then he has wrapped up quite a few long term acca bets for me on the green lawns of South London in June. Like you I certainly think he will make the semis and have backed him to win with the intention of laying at that stage for an arb, and probably a modest profit. I backed him to win every match at Wimbledon 3-0, always laying once he had won the first set - up to the final, which I left alone. It worked well. He is such a talent.

Raskolnikov

westtip wrote:

Thanks for the excellent analysis, Fedex owes me nothing, his first wimbledon win was a big win for me and since then he has wrapped up quite a few long term acca bets for me on the green lawns of South London in June. Like you I certainly think he will make the semis and have backed him to win with the intention of laying at that stage for an arb, and probably a modest profit. I backed him to win every match at Wimbledon 3-0, always laying once he had won the first set - up to the final, which I left alone. It worked well. He is such a talent.

I would say that Nadal would be a better prospect to back to be honest. His quarter of the draw is here, I reckon it's quite favourable and if he plays to this seasons form he'll make the semi's easy. Another reason to back him? He can't play Fed until the finals. Infact, I'm even going to put my money where my mouth is and back him myself. Will go digging for prices later.

As a side note to anyone else looking to place an outright bet on the U.S. Open, take a look at the third section of the draw (http://www.usopen.org/en_US/scores/draws/ms/r1s3.html). It's an absolute stinker! Only one from Baghdatis, Hewitt, Roddick, Djokovic, Gasquet and Ljubicic can progress. Not to mention Agassi, Lopez and Fish being in there. Unless you're super confident, I'd avoid an outright bet in this 'Group of Death'.

Raskolnikov

Rafael Nadal @ 6/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

Raskolnikov

U.S. Open

Hrbaty @ 15/14 to beat Youzhny in the first round. (1 unit).
Rusedski @ 7/2 to beat Henman in the first round. (1 unit).

+€356.67

Raskolnikov

Just updating before things kick off over at Flushing Meadows. Have the massive sum of €275 riding on different bets at this stage, this is the most I've ever gambled before so as you can imagine, I'm rather apprehensive! At least if I make a loss, it'll only be money that I've won, rather than my own cash! Hopefully Hrbaty can get me off to a good start when he kicks off in a min.

U.S. Open

Marat Safin @ 1/2 NOT to win 3-0 against Robin Vik (1 unit)
Felicano Lopez @ 4/1 to beat Ivan Ljubicic (1/2 unit)
Hrbaty @ 15/14 to beat Youzhny in the first round. (1 unit).
Rusedski @ 7/2 to beat Henman in the first round. (1 unit).

Outright

Leyton Hewitt @ 124/1 to win (1/2 unit)
Gael Monfils @ 299/1 to win (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
Rafael Nadal @ 6/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

+€231.67 :eek:

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Felicano Lopez @ 4/1 to beat Ivan Ljubicic (1/2 unit)

Bet Won

Lopez produces the first major shock of the tournament, dispatching no. 3 seed Ivan Ljubicic quite easily!

Raskolnikov wrote:

Hrbaty @ 15/14 to beat Youzhny in the first round. (1 unit).

Bet Lost

I'm super disapointed that Hrbaty lost this one, I got a great little price on him and all.

+€346.67 (€200 of bets to settle though). If I get to €600+ I'll be extremely happy!

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Marat Safin @ 1/2 NOT to win 3-0 against Robin Vik (1 unit)

Bet Won

Safin wins 3-1.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Leyton Hewitt @ 124/1 to win (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

Progress to the next round. . .

Dimitry Tursunov @ 549/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit) (betfair.com)

+€396.67

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Rusedski @ 7/2 to beat Henman in the first round. (1 unit).

Bet Lost

Rusedski crushed, 3-0, boo.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Leyton Hewitt @ 124/1 to win (1/2 unit)
Gael Monfils @ 299/1 to win (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
Rafael Nadal @ 6/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
Dimitry Tursunov @ 549/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

All progress to Round 2, no chances to trade on this yet . . .

+€406.67

Half tempted to throw the lot of Federer beating Henman Instead, I'll probably lay the FedExpress beating Henman 3-0 if I can get a good price. Am considering the same bet for Nadal against Horna. Can see a good price on Hernych against Hewitt, even though I backed Hewitt, I think it's a great price . . .

westtip

Can't see henman taking a set off Fedex, can you? Is it worth the risk currently 1.30 available to lay on betfair. doing an in play might be while - back FEDex to win 3-0 at 1.29 and then lay it when Fedex wins first set and the price will have vanished to about 1.05...........

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote:

Gael Monfils @ 299/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)
David Nalbandian @ 100/1 to win outright. (1/2 unit)

Out in the second and third rounds respectively.

Will see can I hedge my bet with Hewitt, will leave the Nadal bet ride for another round I think.

Raskolnikov

Nikolay Davydenko @ 6/4 to beat Dandy Murray (1 unit)

Raskolnikov

Nadal and Hewitt now out. Traded out on Hewitt as I wasn't all that confident on him again Roddick. Every other outright was a loser. Very disapointing run of results on the outrights though, I needed just one to make the semi's, didn't even get that.

Raskolnikov wrote:

Nikolay Davydenko @ 6/4 to beat Dandy Murray (1 unit)

Bet Won

Denko crushed an underperforming Murray, couldn't believe how easy it was. Murray getting a well deserved bagel at the end

+€526.67

Lots of graft for €20 profit, will have to pick things up and try and finish the US Open on a high.

Raskolnikov

Bump!

This thread sort of died a death a few years back. I'm going to revive it for anyone that's interested. Will have a look for some picks when I get back from work.

Any thoughts, comments or feedback wil always be welcome.

mbradso2003

Interesting thread Raskolnikov. Tennis is also the only sport I win really win money at. Personally I try to stick to mens tennis, focusing on firstly success on surface and then form. I also like to bet players who are playing in home tournaments!

Niall - Dahlia

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Bump!

This thread sort of died a death a few years back. I'm going to revive it for anyone that's interested. Will have a look for some picks when I get back from work.

Any thoughts, comments or feedback wil always be welcome.

Hey Raskolnikov, well I for one am interested! Never saw this thread before you bumped it.

I've been betting on tennis since the start of the season in January (I posted a 3 months spreadsheet in another thread) and have increased my bank ten-fold (thanks to Zvonerava today), it's the only sport I feel I can consistantly analyse and predict, so I'll be very interested in your picks. I bet almost every day so I'll try to throw some in this thread, though I don't want to hijack! Looking forward to your picks.

dioltas

Was looking at the first page of this thread before I realised it was over 2 years old! Fair play for reviving it though. Looking forward to some good tips and advice!

Rjd2

Federer to beat Murray tonight at 4/5 is value. Fed is due a win against a player who has not impressed me that much this week. Lets not forget Murray seems more focused on Miami next week.

Raskolnikov

Going to start off from zero again. Also, I'm going to use decimal odds this time since most of my punting is through betfair. All profit will be shown net of commission.

Sony Ericsson Open Qualification (Miami Masters)

Laid Dudi Sela vs. Alexander Domijan @ 1.07. Liability €7.00. Profit €95.40.

Bit of a gamble even at these high odds to be backing an unknown kid. I'm hoping that the home state advantage is going to play into my favour here. Even though Sela had an excellent showing in Australia, he's well capable of playing a clanger.

Laid Tomasz Bellucci vs. Marco Chiudinelli @ 1.42. Liability €8.40. Profit €19.08.

Chiudinelli has been in awful form in the last year, dropping down the ATP rankings and being forced into entering qualifiers in order to gain entry into the major tournaments. I think that he'll have too much for the Brazilian clay-courter, who had admittedly done well so far this year.

Raskolnikov

As an aside, I noticed Gaston Gaudio is in action for the first time in awhile. You may not be familiar with him, but he's the last person to win Roland Garros before Nadal. I saw odds of 7.0 available in his match against Korolev, but I've been burned so many times by him in the past, I just couldn't bring myself to back him.

He'll probably do the business now!

Raskolnikov

Raskolnikov wrote: »

As an aside, I noticed Gaston Gaudio is in action for the first time in awhile. You may not be familiar with him, but he's the last person to win Roland Garros before Nadal. I saw odds of 7.0 available in his match against Korolev, but I've been burned so many times by him in the past, I just couldn't bring myself to back him.

He'll probably do the business now!

He ended up losing the game after having match point. Not only that, but he double faulted three times in one game, but still won the game