[Article] Minister rules out political boundary changes

Victor

I kept an eye on this back in 2002. Both Kildare and Meath came out of it slightly unfairly - they should have had an extra seat each.

"The final figures have always been used for constituency revisions and they are not due until next year," -then we have a year to prepare, based on the preliminary figure and it can be confirmed using the final figures.

I have to admit some element of schadenfreude at the thought of politicians not knowing which consituency they are in until the election is called.

The article is slightly incorrect in stating the average is 'around 25,000', it is 23,598 (based on the 2002 census). The extremes are 21,828 to 25,455.

http://www.constituency-commission.ie/
BUNREACHT NA hÉIREANN, Article 16.2

http://home.eircom.net/content/irelandcom/topstories/8484655?view=Eircomnet

Minister rules out political boundary changes
From:ireland.com
Monday, 17th July, 2006

The Government has no plans to revise the Dáil constituencies before the next election, in spite of preliminary census figures due out on Wednesday which are expected to show huge disparities in population between constituencies.

The Minister for the Environment and Local Government, Dick Roche, told The Irish Times yesterday that it had never been the practice to use preliminary figures as the basis for redrawing the constituencies.

"The final figures have always been used for constituency revisions and they are not due until next year," said Mr Roche.

Experts have predicted that the preliminary census figures will show more than half of the country's 43 constituencies are well outside the requirement for equal representation. This could expose the current constituency boundaries to legal challenge.

The census will provide details about the population increase over the past five years, which has seen a huge increase in numbers in a ring of constituencies around Dublin. Unless there is a change in constituency boundaries it will mean that constituencies like Dublin West, Meath East, Kildare North and Louth will be seriously under-represented in the next Dáil while Dublin North West, Cavan Monaghan, Kerry North, Sligo Leitrim and Limerick West will be over-represented.

Some TDs, including the Kildare North Independent Catherine Murphy, have said they will consider a legal challenge. If the figures show that one or more constituencies breaches the constitutional limits for the ratio of population to Dáil members a challenge is very likely.

The Constitution specifies that there should be one TD for between every 20,000 and 30,000 people in the country. At present the average is around 25,000 and a variation of a little over 5 per cent above or below that is regarded as acceptable.

However, Wednesday's figures will show some constituencies with a much wider variation. Dublin West is expected to be around 18 per cent over the norm while Dublin North West will come in around 16 per cent below the average.

There is even a chance that the population of the three-seat Dublin West will be over 90,000, in which case the constitutional limit will have been exceeded. By contrast the three seat of Dublin North West will not have much more than 60,000 people.

Fine Gael will not be pressing the Government to change its position. A party spokesman said they were more concerned with sorting out the electoral register than looking for a constituency revision. However, the general secretary of the Progressive Democrats, John Higgins, said if the figures showed big disparities in population then it would be right to establish a new Constituency Commission.

New_Departure06

Part of the problem here is that our Constitution links seat allocations and constituency boundaries to population rather than than the population of persons eligible to vote in General Elections. This is a serious flaw which - especially considering recent large-scale immigration - could lead to some constituencies being over-represented and under-represented with respect to their share of the actual GE vote.

For example, a disproportionate amount of the newcomers are supposed to have settled in Dublin and Cork. Deciding electoral-boundaries and seat allocations for these constituencies on the basis of population could result in TDs from these constituencies having a proportion of the seats out of kilter with their share of the electorate. As a consequence, the popular vote would become more and more out of line with the share of the seats won by the parties. That is why I call for the Constitution to be changed with the wording "population of voters" replacing "population". Agreed?

BTW, it could be argued that since these will be "preliminary" findings that the govt doesn't have to make boundary changes until the final results are released.

Victor

New_Departure06 wrote:

Agreed?

No. Your system disenfranchises areas with high numbers of children (who aren't allowed vote). The figure for population used in drawing up constiuencies excludes people who aren't habitual residents, so the number of non-nationals will be understated. Also note that many of your 'newcomers' are entitled to vote, as foreign-born or UK-born Irish citizens.

While, yes, the matter of non-nationals does pose a question, I disagree with your answer.

New_Departure06

Victor wrote:

No. Your system disenfranchises areas with high numbers of children (who aren't allowed vote). The figure for population used in drawing up constiuencies excludes people who aren't habitual residents, so the number of non-nationals will be understated. Also note that many of your 'newcomers' are entitled to vote, as foreign-born or UK-born Irish citizens.

While, yes, the matter of non-nationals does pose a question, I disagree with your answer.

Well in the last Census (2002). Irish-Americans and Irish-English (Americans and English people of Irish descent) called themselves "Irish" and so I would disagree with you on your point on these being "non-nationals". So I stand by what I am saying. Do you not realise that keeping the current formula will inevitably lead to an over-representation of urban constituencies on the grounds that immigrants historically gravitate more to urban centres? And you are okay with this are you?

lostexpectation

isn't it "Minister rules out political boundary changes" till he gets the full results?

Villain

Yes which will more than likely be after the next election, I'd expect Constitutional challenges if the prelimary figures show that there is too few seats.

silverharp

Slightly off topic but is there any moves planned in the future for EU or other other citizens to vote in the national elections? To me it seems like if you pay taxes and dmonstrate a commitment to live in the country then you should be allowed to vote

Victor

silverharp wrote:

Slightly off topic but is there any moves planned in the future for EU or other other citizens to vote in the national elections? To me it seems like if you pay taxes and dmonstrate a commitment to live in the country then you should be allowed to vote

The EU promotes this and the possibility exists, but its UK and Ireland only for the moment.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

just looking at the census figures released today. It seems that only Dublin West at 30,933 per TD is outside the 20,000-30,000 quota (http://www.cso.ie/census/documents/2006PreliminaryReport.pdf see the table on page 24).

So Article 16.2.2. of the constitution seems fine.

Although there is a wide disparity between districts. Dun Laoighaire and Cork North - Central both have only circa 23,000 per TD. While Dublin North and Dublin West have circa 30,000 per pop.

Is this going to cause probs with Article 16.2.3 ?

Just curious.

p.s. interesting point by New_Departure06 above re 'population of voters' vs 'population' distinction

New_Departure06

silverharp wrote:

Slightly off topic but is there any moves planned in the future for EU or other other citizens to vote in the national elections? To me it seems like if you pay taxes and dmonstrate a commitment to live in the country then you should be allowed to vote

Richard Bruton (FG) has called for immigrants living here 3 yrs who intend to stay to be allowed to vote in General Elections regardless of citizenship-applications. I think this would require a referendum and I am definitely a "No" on this, both because it undermines the whole point of citizenship (what would it mean anymore?) and because I believe the Irish should control their own country. Also in a republican model, sovereignty is supposed to rest with the citizens, and therefore this undermines our republic. I question whether a Rainbow govt would be brave enough to put this to a vote given the likely result.

Hitchhiker's Guide to...

New_Departure06 wrote:

Richard Bruton (FG) has called for immigrants living here 3 yrs who intend to stay to be allowed to vote in General Elections regardless of citizenship-applications. I think this would require a referendum and I am definitely a "No" on this, both because it undermines the whole point of citizenship (what would it mean anymore?) and because I believe the Irish should control their own country. Also in a republican model, sovereignty is supposed to rest with the citizens, and therefore this undermines our republic. I question whether a Rainbow govt would be brave enough to put this to a vote given the likely result.

not sure about this. when i was doing my undergrad in the UK, i was able to vote in all UK elections. would be unfair for UK citizens not to be allowed vote in our elections surely? Maybe countries that offer the reciprocal right to our citizens, should have the right to vote in Irish elections.

New_Departure06

New_Departure06 wrote:

Richard Bruton (FG) has called for immigrants living here 3 yrs who intend to stay to be allowed to vote in General Elections regardless of citizenship-applications. I think this would require a referendum and I am definitely a "No" on this, both because it undermines the whole point of citizenship (what would it mean anymore?) and because I believe the Irish should control their own country. Also in a republican model, sovereignty is supposed to rest with the citizens, and therefore this undermines our republic. I question whether a Rainbow govt would be brave enough to put this to a vote given the likely result.

Personally, I think immigrants who have been living and working here should have a greater say in how the country is run than citizens who only come here every few years for a holiday.

That said I don't really have an idea of how voting works for citizens living abroad, immigrants living here etc. Any info anybody?

New_Departure06

Deleted User wrote:

Personally, I think immigrants who have been living and working here should have a greater say in how the country is run than citizens who only come here every few years for a holiday.

That said I don't really have an idea of how voting works for citizens living abroad, immigrants living here etc. Any info anybody?

I don't agree. Where would it stop? Do you let people here on a summer-job who intend going home vote in our General Elections? There is also the question of reciprocity, whereby we would be giving non-nationals rights that irish citizens living in their native countries do not have? Would you make a reciprocal voting right for Irish citizens in these peoples' countries a prerequisite for this? If not then why should we give this favour? We should let in some guests without giving up control of the house that is Ireland.

I would add that I prefer Irish people controlling the Republic of Ireland. I don't want ethnic-lobbies developing like in the US - one of which is the pro-Israel lobby btw - which could like the US force Ireland in the future to make arguably bad foreign-policy choices in order to buy the votes of that section of the electorate.

If these people want voting rights in GE's, then they should apply for Irish Citizenship - that's what normally happens in other countries. And what would be the point of Citizenship if this right were given to people who aren't citizens? I guarantee you the people will not stand for Bruton's proposals if consulted in a referendum.

BTW since you ask, non-nationals can already vote in local and European elections.

Mailman

FF/PDs will not address this issue until after election if at all possible because if an extra seat gets added in Dublin West it will not go to them; it will probably go to FG or at a very long stretch SF.

Mailman

I think the party spokesman for FG hadn't consulted Varadkar who looks like he would do just about anything short of sell his Granny to get elected.

lostexpectation

http://www.oceanfm.ie/onair/sligoleitrimnews.php?articleid=000003209

The Save Leitrim Campaign group opposed to the splitting of Leitrim into two Dail Constituencies are today hopeful the 2006 Census figures will expose the ruling to a legal challenge.

The Census expected to reveal a significant growth in the Irish population, and disparities in population between constituencies.

Sligo/Leitrim is expected to be over-represented electorally.

However Save Leitrim spokeperson Cormac Sullivan says whatever the census reveals, it could ultimately force the Government into a re-examination of the Dail constituencies.

gandalf

Personally I feel we have way too many TD's. We need to half the number we have in Dail Eireann and get them to only concentrate on National Politics. If I see another flyer from another of my gobsh!te local TD's boasting how they sorted the GAA club down the road with a clubhouse I will go postal !!!

Villain

Problem with most of TD's is they will work like mad coming up to an election to get your vote then once they get into the Dail they will just sit in the bar. I agree with Gandalf we have too many TD's problem is our constitution doesn't agree.

Nuttzz

the courts are very wary of interfering with the results of elections and more so on the basis of preliminary cenus figures

Victor

Mailman wrote:

FF/PDs will not address this issue until after election if at all possible because if an extra seat gets added in Dublin West it will not go to them; it will probably go to FG or at a very long stretch SF.

If they don't add the seat, they are going to get a very hostile reaction on the doorsteps.

jd

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1657071&issue_id=14391

THE Constitution may need to be changed within the next decade because of the spiralling rate of population increase.
Otherwise there will inevitably be demands for boundary changes every few years, according to Fine Gael front bencher Billy Timmins.
.
.
"We could look at the possibility of having a 20,000 requirement for TDs in sprawling country constituencies, but up to 40,000 in city constituencies where access is easier," he said.

He has got to be joking. He wants Dublin to be under-represented, and can you imagine the gerrymandering...
jd

jlang

An argument can be made for preferring 5 seaters in cities and 3 seaters in rural constituencies (although recent boundary commissions seem to have trended away from that) but I can't believe he's serious in recommending that cities be underrepresented. Of course there are conflicts between retaining the link to county boundaries and fairly balancing constituency size with population representation but to say that a rural voter is worth two city voters would be extremely hard to justify.

Victor

Well thats what FF wanted at one stage.

Schuhart

Indeed, it simply reflects that rural constituencies tend to return predictable FF/FG numbers, whereas as people urbanise those old allegiences start to vanish. But it is still strange to see someone actual feel they can make such a blatently self serving point.

What's wrong with FG actually trying to engage with urban Ireland? Clearly they feel more comfortable with voters who know their place as clients seeking favours from their local representative.

Victor

I've done some analysis. Based on keeping the same number of seats (166) this is the status of the msot extreme constituencies. See map below.

Over-represented by more than half of a seat
Dún Laoghaire

Over-represented by between one quarter to one half of a seat
Cavan - Monaghan
Cork North - Central
Dublin North - East
Dublin South
Kerry North
Kerry South
Limerick East

Under-represented by between one quarter to one half of a seat
Laoighis - Offaly
Louth
Meath East
Meath West

Under-represented by more than half of a seat
Dublin North
Dublin West

Potentially (see Excel spreadsheet for Constituency Model)
(a) Reduces Kerry to a single constituency with five seats (it has a history of being over represented).
(b) Realign Dún Laoghaire and Dublin South, dropping a seat.
(c) Add a seat to Dublin North.
(d) Add a seat to Dublin West.

Alternatively (see Excel spreadsheet for County Model)
(a) Reduces Kerry to a single constituency with five seats (it has a history of being over represented).
(b) Realign Dún Laoghaire and Dublin South, dropping a seat.
(c) Realign Limerick East and West, dropping a seat.
(d) Add a seat to Dublin North.
(e) Add a seat to Dublin West.
(f) Rearrange Longford-Westmeath-Meath, adding a seat.

Both models might involve some smaller change also.

Murt10

As far as I remember the Government referred this matter to the Attournney General at the last meeting of the Cabinet before the Summer Recess for his views on whether the constituencies would have to be redrawn or not.

Has anyone heard if he has come back yet and what his advice was? (Redrafting the constituencies would be great crack IMO and would cause loads of panic and uncertainty.):D


Murt

LostinBlanch

Victor,

whatever about the fact that it may be the fairest and most obvious way to do it. Be assured it ain't gonna happen.

FF only want 3 seater constituencies where ever possible. 5 seater constituencies throws up more chance of smaller parties the Greens, SF etc and independents getting the last seat. They'll do some gerryman. . . sorry :rolleyes: adjusting of constituency boundaries to try and get them as close to 3 seaters as possible.

Victor

Murt10 wrote:

Redrafting the constituencies would be great crack IMO and would cause loads of panic and uncertainty.:D

In my opinion, this is the ideal state of being for a poolitician.

road_high

Victor wrote:

I've done some analysis. Based on keeping the same number of seats (166) this is the status of the msot extreme constituencies. See map below.

Over-represented by more than half of a seat
Dún Laoghaire

Over-represented by between one quarter to one half of a seat
Cavan - Monaghan
Cork North - Central
Dublin North - East
Dublin South
Kerry North
Kerry South
Limerick East

Under-represented by between one quarter to one half of a seat
Laoighis - Offaly
Louth
Meath East
Meath West

Under-represented by more than half of a seat
Dublin North
Dublin West

Potentially (see Excel spreadsheet for Constituency Model)
(a) Reduces Kerry to a single constituency with five seats (it has a history of being over represented).
(b) Realign Dún Laoghaire and Dublin South, dropping a seat.
(c) Add a seat to Dublin North.
(d) Add a seat to Dublin West.

Alternatively (see Excel spreadsheet for County Model)
(a) Reduces Kerry to a single constituency with five seats (it has a history of being over represented).
(b) Realign Dún Laoghaire and Dublin South, dropping a seat.
(c) Realign Limerick East and West, dropping a seat.
(d) Add a seat to Dublin North.
(e) Add a seat to Dublin West.
(f) Rearrange Longford-Westmeath-Meath, adding a seat.

Both models might involve some smaller change also.

Effectively Carlow-Kilkenny is under represented too with a big chunk of our constituency now residing in Wicklow. A boundary change a few years back did this.
Kerry could easily be rearranged into a seater as you say. I'm sure we would have the usual west of Ireland crowing of course..

Victor

mfitzy wrote:

Effectively Carlow-Kilkenny is under represented too with a big chunk of our constituency now residing in Wicklow.

Whats the problem? Carlow and Kilkenny by themselves don't have enough for a seat increase.

Perhaps not a real update, but relevant. http://home.eircom.net/content/irelandcom/breaking/8851116?view=Eircomnet

Government refusing boundary review, claims Rabbitte
From:ireland.com
Friday, 8th September, 2006

The Government will not allow a review of constituency boundaries ahead of the next general election, the Labour Party claimed today.

Despite recent census figures showing huge disparities in per capita representation in some constituencies, Mr Rabbitte said the Government would not be referring to a constituency commission in time for changes ahead of the next election.

Prior to the resignation of Tánaiste Mary Harney yesterday, it was thought likely the general election would be held in late May or June.

Speaking in Co Tipperary today, the Labour Party leader said: "Apparently the political judgment has been reached that any redrawing of the constituency boundaries would result in significant seat losses for Fianna Fáil in the west and in Dublin.

"This decision is predominantly politically motivated and in the attempt to contain Fianna Fail seat-losses."

Mr Rabbitte claimed the Government had decided it was willing to contest any challenges before the Supreme Court, if necessary

Central Statistic Office (CSO) figures published last July showed a population increase in some constituencies as high as 21 per cent.

There is a Constitutional requirement of one TD per 20,000 to 30,000 voters. The High Court later ruled there could not be a deviation in relative representation across constituencies of more than 5 per cent.

However the CSO figures show Dublin West, Meath East, Kildare North and Louth will be under-represented at the next election and that Dublin North West, Cavan/Monaghan, Kerry North, Sligo Leitrim and Limerick West would be over-represented.

Minister for Environment and Local Government Dick Roche has insisted that because the CSO figures were preliminary, there was no requirement to refer the matter to constituency commission.

Nonetheless, the issue was referred to Attorney General Rory Brady.

The final figures are not due until next March at the earliest, but CSO director general Donal Garvey said there would be little change in the final tally.

Mr Rabbitte claimed the Government had now received the AG's advice but would not reveal it.

"Time after time in circumstances similar to these, I have called on the Government to publish the secret advice which it says compels it to do what it does.

"But, time after time, this Government has refused to stand up its argument by putting all its cards, including its legal advice, on the table," he said.

A spokesman for the Department of the Environment told ireland.com , this afternoon that the AG's advice had not been received and therefore the Government position had not changed.

Victor

/me feels angry.

http://home.eircom.net/content/irelandcom/topstories/8888046?view=Eircomnet

Electoral boundary revisions ruled out by Roche
From:ireland.com
Thursday, 14th September, 2006

The Government has decided against a review of the current constituency boundaries despite preliminary census figures which show very wide variations in the ratio of TDs to population across the country.

Yesterday Minister for the Environment Dick Roche said the Government had no option but to rule out a constituency review, following advice from Attorney General Rory Brady that to do so would be unconstitutional.

However, Labour accused the Government of making a "politically-motivated" decision to protect Fianna Fáil seats.

Mr Roche said yesterday that there was "a whole series of case law", along with the 1997 Electoral Act, which found that the constituency boundaries should be based on the final census figures rather than the preliminary numbers.

Preliminary figures for this year's census were produced in early July but the final results are not expected until next March at the earliest, which will not provide sufficient time for a constituency review before the general election.

"We have been advised that provisional census results should not be regarded as having statutory force," Mr Roche said.

"It would be unconstitutional of me or the Government to order a constituency review based on preliminary figures, and it would certainly result in a constitutional challenge."

The figures showed huge variations from the national average of TDs to population across the constituencies, with the most extreme being Dublin West, which is 21 per cent above the average, with Dún Laoghaire more than 10 per cent below it.

He acknowledged that the Constitution states that the ratio of TDs to population should be the same across the country, in so far as practicable, based on the last census.

However, he said that case law, and the 1997 Electoral Act, find that the preliminary figures do not constitute a legal census.

He added that there were significant differences in the last census in 2002 between the preliminary and official results, with one local area being out by 3,700 people.

Asked whether it was appropriate to ignore the preliminary census figures, which show serious Dáil under-representation in some constituencies, he said the Government had no choice.

"Whether I think it's fair or not is not the issue," he said. "I have to make a decision based on the law and the Constitution."

Yesterday Labour environment spokesman Eamon Gilmore called for the Attorney General's legal advice to be published, and he questioned whether a legal definition of the census had ever been made in Irish case law.

"The real danger arising from the Government's decision is that a legal challenge will now be mounted to constituencies that are clearly at odds with constitutional requirements."

Meanwhile, Mr Roche has also launched a €1 million advertising campaign aimed at improving the accuracy of the electoral register.

Council officials are calling to almost every household in the country as part of the process.