Housing bubble starting to pop?

mox54

mox54 wrote:

we have years of development still ahead of us before we even begin to compete properly with the UK, France, Germany etc etc, even Spain is years ahead of us so I wouldn't worry too much

:cool:

EXCUSE ME??

Did I read that correctly??

HUH!

Why is that a good thing?? surely what YOU state is a bad bad thing being "years" behind other countries?
what r ya like:eek:

Idleater

soma wrote:

Look at the ludicruous situation depicted above. A house in tallaght (and I'm from West Dublin myself) has been reduced to what is essentially half a million US Dollars.

Wowzers :eek: :eek: :eek: jeez, what a point. How did no one ever think about it that way. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Wait for it....

€381,000 is 737,718,870 old Italian Lira.

or, how about 1,163,112,990 Columbian Peso's

L.

daveirl

This post has been deleted.

soma

nereid wrote:

Wowzers :eek: :eek: :eek: jeez, what a point. How did no one ever think about it that way. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Wait for it....

€381,000 is 737,718,870 old Italian Lira.

or, how about 1,163,112,990 Columbian Peso's

L.

Nereid, I understand that the concept may be a little difficult for you to understand (as the average Irish person's financial literacy is nothing short of appalling), but the US Dollar (for better or worse) is still regarded as the world's reserve currency. Strangely enough, neither the extinct Lira nor columbian peso are in the same league.

Now whether the USD should be the regarded in this way, is another matter entirely.

jank

Nereid, I understand that the concept may be a little difficult for you to understand

I think the term used is "Give an idoit a calculator..."

Idleater

daveirl wrote:

This post has been deleted.

Erm, no offence ladies and gents, but the fact is that there have been people here stating that the US property market is in recession.

If it is so then stating what you can get for "almost half a million US$" is about as pointless as saying what you can get for €381000. I have been over in the states recently and what you get is directly comparable to here - location:sq footage etc.

It is your sad little minds that cant take a bit of a joke, because I would be willing to wager you half of that stack of pesos that I would be able to buy an even better residence for half that amount of pesos in Columbia than you could even think about buying here or in the states.

Face it, what I pointed out was just that somebody was calling an apple an orange. Just because I changed the apple to a grape doesn't mean it is wrong.

And, yes I had fun using Calc and XE Currency Converter thank you very much, but doing so does not make me an idiot.

L

Blackjack

jank wrote:

I think the term used is "Give an idoit a calculator..."

whats an idoit?.

In all honest, I think nereid has a point - you can dress it up as you like - making it a half million dollars, a number of Columbian pesos (or if you really want to make it a big number try Indonesian Rupiah) but 381,000 euros is a shed load of cash, in any currency equivalent.

Shane™

nereid wrote:

If it is so then stating what you can get for "almost half a million US$" is about as pointless as saying what you can get for €381000. I have been over in the states recently and what you get is directly comparable to here - location:sq footage etc.
L

I was in the states last week and what you get is certainly not comparable to what you get here, this is typical of what I seen. Notice the sq footage 2,512, location is good too (I stayed in that area, it's nice).

I also think half a million dollors is a lot of money, when I asked the Americans I was working with they agreed, I told them what you could get here for it and they just thought I was exaggerating, they just didn't believe me.

I went looking at a few places around the world, here are a few I found.
Mannhattan (that's in New York)
Germany
Germany (again)
Tuscany, Italy
France
London, England
Kent, England
Tallaght, Ireland
Crumlin, Ireland

Don't tell me our house prices are normal as all of those properties are priced at €381k, that's £256k and $480k on xe.com as I post.

Gurgle

miju wrote:

would you care to perhaps expand on your reasoning for this prediction with a rational well based argument or is it just a case of you wishing that will be the case?

So to predict that what has happened will continue to happen and then ease off requires justification.

While to predict doomsday based on nothing but wishfull thinking is ok.

Besides, why should I be the only one to justify my predictions?
Have you got anything to back up yours?

Gurgle

soma wrote:

Utter tosh, would you tell the japanese that they didnt have a property crash cos their house prices fell for 15 years..?

They demonstrated the problems inherent in 1000% finance.

They were using housing equity as a deposit for a loan - if you owned a house worth €100,000 you could borrow €1,000,000.

faceman

Dudes ive been offline for a week but ive decided to withdraw from future posts as the debating is still going round in circles and time will tell as they say. I still dont see a crash on the market.

BUT in a shock twist of opinion, i have to say im a bit surprised at some of the ECB comments yesterday in relation to interest rates. Despite a drop in inflation and a drop in oil prices they are still indicating further hikes this year. Even some of the more respected economists (see yesterday's Times) are baffled at their language. It makes no sense and with that level of unpredictability is not good for any economy. (Some of you may also remember the IMF comments a few weeks back warning the ECB of their rate decisions)

Anyway to my adversaries of late, spongebob, simplesam, pa elgrande, miji to name but a few heres hopin that no matter what happens it doesnt lead to a doom and gloom situation for all.

A further debate in a pub would be a nice progression from this forum but i will leave that with you!

Best of luck ppl and less wishing for doom!

mossym

Shane&#8482 wrote:

I was in the states last week and what you get is certainly not comparable to what you get here, this is typical of what I seen. Notice the sq footage 2,512, location is good too (I stayed in that area, it's nice).

I also think half a million dollors is a lot of money, when I asked the Americans I was working with they agreed, I told them what you could get here for it and they just thought I was exaggerating, they just didn't believe me.

I went looking at a few places around the world, here are a few I found.
Mannhattan (that's in New York)
Germany
Germany (again)
Tuscany, Italy
France
London, England
Kent, England
Tallaght, Ireland
Crumlin, Ireland

Don't tell me our house prices are normal as all of those properties are priced at €381k, that's £256k and $480k on xe.com as I post.

you just picked a house in minnesota. That's like picking a house in Sligo and saying ti's indicative of the housing market over the whole country. Look at some of the big markets, they'll shock you. I lived in the bay area for 6 years, only came back in February. I wouldn't use that as a yardstick either, it's the opposite of minnesota.

Gurgle

Gurgle wrote:

While to predict doomsday based on nothing but wishfull thinking is ok.

Besides, why should I be the only one to justify my predictions?
Have you got anything to back up yours?

yes as listed previously:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=52108176&postcount=822

thats not "wishful thinking"


now whether you believe they are factors for a crash is debatable
so why not debate

SkepticOne

Gurgle wrote:

So to predict that what has happened will continue to happen and then ease off requires justification.

Yes I would think so. What is the main argument in favour of this scenario? It seems unlikely in my opinion.

ongarite

Was just listening to the business show in Newstalk and they had 2 financial analyst on and they were talking about how you shouldn't fix your mortgage interest rate now as rates have reached the ceiling. Obviously they must be deaf as I thought the ECB had another 0.5% increase left in them yet.

They also talked about people re-mortgaging on the "equity" built up on the their houses. I thought it was utter madness. It would be the last thing I would do now as that so called "equity" doesn't really exist.

ionapaul

The ECB quite clearly indicated another 0.25% rise in December and used language to let all and sundry know that they would be happy to continue raising rates in 2007!

Most of the analysts on the radio, TV and in the newspapers are in the pockets of the vested interests to some degree and want to avoid spooking that endangered species, the vanishing Irish FTB

SkepticOne

ongarite wrote:

Was just listening to the business show in Newstalk and they had 2 financial analyst on and they were talking about how you shouldn't fix your mortgage interest rate now as rates have reached the ceiling. Obviously they must be deaf as I thought the ECB had another 0.5% increase left in them yet.

Although I would be very careful when dealing with financial analysts who, as pointed out, often represent vested interests, it might not be a good thing fixing if there's only really only going to be a .5% increase as the fixed interest rate available may factor in an increase higher than this.

TSBs tracker mortgage is at 4.1%. A .5% increase brings it up to 4.6% whereas the 5 year fixed rate is at 4.99%.

mentalson

Sponge Bob wrote:

a national rental market of say 600,000 bodies (not sure exactly how many rent ) QUOTE]

approx 40,000 properties registered with the PRTB. Taxes are for little people

miju

Gurgle wrote:

So to predict that what has happened will continue to happen and then ease off requires justification.

yes

Gurgle wrote:

While to predict doomsday based on nothing but wishfull thinking is ok.

no and it's not wishful thinking either , this country is quite simply ****ed when things get badly pear shaped

Gurgle wrote:

Besides, why should I be the only one to justify my predictions?
Have you got anything to back up yours?

well i've yet to see a bull with any decent / rational argument as to why things will be hunky dory, i have seen plenty of bears come up with plenty of reports / articles and actual links to house prices ALREADY dropping

i can of course repeat the same things if you wish

ongarite wrote:

Was just listening to the business show in Newstalk and they had 2 financial analyst on and they were talking about how you shouldn't fix your mortgage interest rate now as rates have reached the ceiling

well going by their indications that they wish to normalise rates it will be hitting at 4% minimum prob 6-7% at the VERY maximum

Gurgle

miju wrote:

actual links to house prices ALREADY dropping

Ok, lets look at that list:
19 examples of houses that were put on the market at one price, and each time the asking price was reduced.

15 of those 19 are at asking prices over 500k
Are these indicative of a market where the average price is 391k?

Of the other 4:
A 3-bed semi in Lucan - put in first at 400k, reduced to 390k. Yes thats a drop of 2.5% in the asking price.

A 4-bed semi in Mullingar (where hundreds of new houses have been built in the last few years), asking price reduced from 325k to 315k. Again, price is hardly falling through the floor with a 3.5% reduction.

3-bed semi in Huntstown reduced from 370k to 360k - Thats about 300 yards from sheepmore, isn't it? A nice street but certainly not a prime location.

And then theres a nice 4-bed detached property with large site for 380 k. Sounds like a bargain doesn't it - its in Laois!

There was a time these would all have been snapped up by investors with loads of available credit and the conviction that the market would rise by 20% per year forever.

The very fact that houses are taking longer to sell shows a slowdown in the market. You're a bit premature with the 'I told you so' though.

Sonnenblumen

Gurgle wrote:

Ok, lets look at that list:
19 examples of houses that were put on the market at one price, and each time the asking price was reduced.

15 of those 19 are at asking prices over 500k
Are these indicative of a market where the average price is 391k?

Of the other 4:
A 3-bed semi in Lucan - put in first at 400k, reduced to 390k. Yes thats a drop of 2.5% in the asking price.

A 4-bed semi in Mullingar (where hundreds of new houses have been built in the last few years), asking price reduced from 325k to 315k. Again, price is hardly falling through the floor with a 3.5% reduction.

3-bed semi in Huntstown reduced from 370k to 360k - Thats about 300 yards from sheepmore, isn't it? A nice street but certainly not a prime location.

And then theres a nice 4-bed detached property with large site for 380 k. Sounds like a bargain doesn't it - its in Laois!

There was a time these would all have been snapped up by investors with loads of available credit and the conviction that the market would rise by 20% per year forever.

The very fact that houses are taking longer to sell shows a slowdown in the market. You're a bit premature with the 'I told you so' though.

Hey Gurgle, nothing lasts forever. So help yourself to a lollipop on the way out.

miju

Gurgle wrote:

You're a bit premature with the 'I told you so' though.

dont get me wrong man i'm not trying to say "i told you so" (particularly when i personally am expecting a fall of 30-40%) i was just pointing to the fact that prices have begun to drop , 2.5% drop is still a drop and it may / may not be the start of a much larger slide (though i believe it is the start)

also while 2.5% looks small that still equates to about a €30,000 drop which is a full years salary for the average earner , cant be sniffed at either

antoinolachtnai

The property your refer to in Manhattan is a coop. As such it is not comparable at all to any property in Ireland. The financial structure is completely different.

Shane™

Gurgle wrote:

Ok, lets look at that list:
19 examples of houses that were put on the market at one price, and each time the asking price was reduced.

15 of those 19 are at asking prices over 500k
Are these indicative of a market where the average price is 391k?

Of the other 4:
A 3-bed semi in Lucan - put in first at 400k, reduced to 390k. Yes thats a drop of 2.5% in the asking price.

A 4-bed semi in Mullingar (where hundreds of new houses have been built in the last few years), asking price reduced from 325k to 315k. Again, price is hardly falling through the floor with a 3.5% reduction.

3-bed semi in Huntstown reduced from 370k to 360k - Thats about 300 yards from sheepmore, isn't it? A nice street but certainly not a prime location.

And then theres a nice 4-bed detached property with large site for 380 k. Sounds like a bargain doesn't it - its in Laois!

There was a time these would all have been snapped up by investors with loads of available credit and the conviction that the market would rise by 20% per year forever.

The very fact that houses are taking longer to sell shows a slowdown in the market. You're a bit premature with the 'I told you so' though.

It has to start somewhere.

It was not too long ago I was looking to buy, I stopped in April, and every place I looked at went up by 20k to 30k, they were priced that way, now they are not jumping up, in fact some are starting to go the opposite direction - sooner than I thought.

If you think about it prices have to remain stable for a while before people feel the need to reduce their asking price in order to get the sale, that's my opinion anyway.

Pines

Useful strategies in a slow market....

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/52979

Gurgle

Shane&#8482 wrote:

If you think about it prices have to remain stable for a while before people feel the need to reduce their asking price in order to get the sale, that's my opinion anyway.

The assumption is, as always, that most of the people with their houses on the market have to sell them.

There will be a certain amount of people in this position but I believe the majority are still people who plan to either trade up or cash in and move further from Dublin. In either of those cases, if they can't get the price they require they will just stay where they are.

D'Peoples Voice

Gurgle wrote:

The assumption is, as always, that most of the people with their houses on the market have to sell them.

True if they can afford to hold off and absorb a possible cut of thousands of euro in the sales price as prices continue to fall, they are fine.

Gurgle wrote:

There will be a certain amount of people in this position but I believe the majority are still people who plan to either trade up or cash in and move further from Dublin. In either of those cases, if they can't get the price they require they will just stay where they are.

A very small percentage of people will hold their nerve. After all we are takling about prices being 'sticky' at best at the minute, and given that next year we expect to see THOUSANDS more new properties hit the market, the question is who will buy them. Many people would sooner take the cut in price now and realize their profits.
We know from the planning permissions that housing supply is to continue, so the supply curve is shifting to the right at the same time as the demand curve is shifting to the left as affordability has taken a massive hit inn the last 12 months, there is only one inevitable outcome, a lower equilibrium price.
I don't deny there will be people holding out for the right price, but if everything around them is falling, who will buy their house. The theory of holding out only works if supply in the area is constant, but we know that in almost every area this is not the case, supply is increasing on a daily basis.

gurramok

Gurgle wrote:

Ok, lets look at that list:
19 examples of houses that were put on the market at one price, and each time the asking price was reduced.

15 of those 19 are at asking prices over 500k
Are these indicative of a market where the average price is 391k?

Try my posted drops on same thread, a good few 391 or under.
Here they are for your perusal:
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=292101&postcount=5770
http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=292122&postcount=5775

I didn't have to look hard for them, the drops are everywhere.

soma

Gurgle wrote:

The assumption is, as always, that most of the people with their houses on the market have to sell them.

There will be a certain amount of people in this position but I believe the majority are still people who plan to either trade up or cash in and move further from Dublin. In either of those cases, if they can't get the price they require they will just stay where they are.

Prices are set at the margin. If you do not understand this, you do not understand markets.

dochasach

Shane&#8482 wrote:

...

I went looking at a few places around the world, here are a few I found.
Mannhattan (that's in New York)
Germany
Germany (again)
Tuscany, Italy
France
London, England
Kent, England
Tallaght, Ireland
Crumlin, Ireland

Don't tell me our house prices are normal as all of those properties are priced at €381k, that's £256k and $480k on xe.com as I post.

Here are a couple of my favorites:

A mountain chalet in Valais Switzerland (349,000 Euro):
http://www.viviun.com/AD-60288/


In Luasanne (on Lake Lemon/Genva) an apartment building. (less than 1.3 million euro)
http://www.viviun.com/AD-58857/

Now I've done it, the Dublin property blight insanity spreads to yet another country... cheap as chips Switzerland, sigh. The Soviet, U.S., U.K. Spanish, German and Portuguese empires have long collapsed but if you're Irish, the world is yours.

http://irishpropertybubble.blogspot.com