Castro nearly RIP what follows?

mike65

Castro underwent a fairly serious operation two days ago and has handed over powers to his brother, as he is 80-odd he's on the way out one suspects.

So what will follow? More of the same or will be oppotunity be taken by both Cuba and the US to begin a rapprochement? While the latter would surely suit both countries at this stage I wont hold my breath.

Mike.

flogen

I'd imagine that Raul Castro, given his status within the party there will be quite similar to Fidel.
I'm interested to see what the Americans do, if anything, once Fidel does go, however. I'm sure they'll see his death as one of the bigger weakpoints in the history of the Cuban "revolution", as it could be argued that many support (or fear) Fidel rather than communism in general. I'm sure they feel that if they allow Raul enough time to consolidate power and garner support it will be an opportunity missed.

This could well be a PR move by Fidel more than anything; perhaps he's introducing the public to their next leader now so he is supported more when the inevitable happens; maybe we'll see a more prominent Raul even after Fidel returns to power.

Dirk Gently

I would imagine the Americans will throw into action their Cuba after Castro plan. They have being plotting for this opportunity for quite a while now but have never made public the actual details of the plan. In recent years Cuba has made strong alliances with other Latin American countries on the left, most notably Venezuela, Bolivia and the members of the Mercosur trading bloc. I can't imagine Cuba wanting to throw away their preferential trade agreements with those countries in Favour of closer ties with the U.S. (given the choice of course)

It will be interesting to see the Mercosur countries and the U.S. battle it out for Cuba’s allegiance. I think Cuba will stick to their friends in Latin America as they have good relations with those countries on the left but that all depends on what the U.S. has in store for a post Castro Cuba. I think Cuba can resist any political pressure from the U.S. but I wouldn't put it past Bush if he had some kind of military intervention plan involving the anti-Castro Cuban population in Miami. The **** could hit the fan if that happened as I doubt Chavez and the rest of Mercosur would be happy with any U.S. intervention. I would imagine Mercosur would push for a transition to a democratic socialist Cuba while the U.S. will do everything in their power to push for a neo-liberal Cuba. I think Castros recent reaching out to Mercosur is designed with the U.S. in mind in order to give his vision of Cuba a chance to survive after his death. Hopefully a transition to democracy will follow his death with a democratic Cuba strongly linked to Mercosur.

mike65

With that analysis you should work for the Morning Star.

I don't see Washington deliberatly provoking the leftist-latin club with a military/intelligence/ex-pat inspired takeover. Its not in thier interests as it'll merely re-enforce the likes of Chavez. With the Bush-ites taking a pounding over Iraq and now Israel I see a change of tack coming, the "neo-con" doctrine is running out of road rapidly.

Mike.

Dirk Gently

I agree a military intervention is unlikely, I just said I wouldn't put it past them. There is however a Cuba after Castro plan which will swing into action when he dies. No doubt the U.S. will push aggressively for a U.S. friendly administration, it’s just a question of how aggressively and what tactics they will use. I would imagine it will take the form of promises of significant aid and investment backed up with increased activity from the Miami Cuban population.

If you have a more worthy analysis please share. I only replied to your question.

sovtek

mike65 wrote:

With that analysis you should work for the Morning Star.

I don't see Washington deliberatly provoking the leftist-latin club with a military/intelligence/ex-pat inspired takeover. Its not in thier interests as it'll merely re-enforce the likes of Chavez. With the Bush-ites taking a pounding over Iraq and now Israel I see a change of tack coming, the "neo-con" doctrine is running out of road rapidly.

Mike.

Not so according to this
http://www.counterpunch.org/smith07112006.html

Dave!

The US's intelligence will probably tell them that that's where Osama Bin Laden is hiding. Under Saddam Hussein's WMD's.

Dg101

DaveMcG wrote:

The US's intelligence will probably tell them that that's where Osama Bin Laden is hiding. Under Saddam Hussein's WMD's.

Hopefully there'll be a thawing of US-Cuban relationships, leading to an end to the trade embargo. It seems ridiculous that the US will trade with China but not Cuba. Well, I won't hold my breath waiting anyway, the US aren't in the habit of backing down, even in the face of having no global support.

flogen

Dg101 wrote:

Hopefully there'll be a thawing of US-Cuban relationships, leading to an end to the trade embargo. It seems ridiculous that the US will trade with China but not Cuba. Well, I won't hold my breath waiting anyway, the US aren't in the habit of backing down, even in the face of having no global support.

No, it makes perfect sense, there's money to be made in China trade and very little to be made in Cuban trade... what there is to be made in a cuban blockade is votes in Florida though; so for no loss the US economy the government can keep citizens in fear (although not as much as in the 1970's) and gather up some easy votes too!

Dg101

Yeah, it makes cold , economical sense. What's ridiculous about it is the whole reds under the bed argument that they use to justify it. You'd swear Castro was actually Satan himself from some of the CIA reports and US government think tank advice.

mike65

Castro never was as cuddly as his appologists like to make out.

Mike.

The Saint

Some people do have a bit of a rose tinted view of Castro. However I think that US policy towards Cuba has in part led to the less savoury aspects of Catro's regime. Having dealt with invasions assasination attempts, a blockade, etc, most countries take a reactionary response and close ranks, cetralise power and become less free and hard line. We can even see this to a lesser extent in the US after 9/11. Countries under attack rally around their leaders for protection.

I'm not trying to suggest that this is the only reason for Cuba's issues with human rights and freedom but I think it offers a partial explanation.

The US's relations with Cuba is just a joke. They are punishing Cuba for being the only country in the hemisphere to successfully defy the US. I'd imagine if the US ended it's blockade the country would become quite wealthy, quite quickly and there would be a possibility of political reform.

Hobbes

According to various news reports Castro is fine and just told to take a break. I wouldn't break out the champagne just yet Mike.

Although his replacement is pretty much a clone, so its not like his death is going to change the country over night.

mike65

Ah its not champagne I'd waste on him, Babycham is about his level.

Mike.

flogen

The Saint wrote:

Some people do have a bit of a rose tinted view of Castro. However I think that US policy towards Cuba has in part led to the less savoury aspects of Catro's regime. Having dealt with invasions assasination attempts, a blockade, etc, most countries take a reactionary response and close ranks, cetralise power and become less free and hard line. We can even see this to a lesser extent in the US after 9/11. Countries under attack rally around their leaders for protection.

I'm not trying to suggest that this is the only reason for Cuba's issues with human rights and freedom but I think it offers a partial explanation.

The US's relations with Cuba is just a joke. They are punishing Cuba for being the only country in the hemisphere to successfully defy the US. I'd imagine if the US ended it's blockade the country would become quite wealthy, quite quickly and there would be a possibility of political reform.

That's a fair point, although I have difficulty believing Castro would have been a far fairer leader in different circumstances.
I do have a belief that the US blockade has only helped him; you can blame everything on the Americans. No money, food, education? That's the American's fault.
Castro has a limitless target of hatred in the US that he can use to envoke fear, anger, support, whatever he wants.
I'd agree with you that in a freer enviroment the dissent in Cuba would have been much higher with the possibility of a democracy over time; it's hard to imagine it though, given the fact that Castro has been able to rule unquestioned for so long.

bonkey

flogen wrote:

No money, food, education?

Whatever about the first two, I was under the impression that education standards in Cuba were quite good.

A quick look about doesn't yield any definitive info on it though...and its probably not really on-topic.

mike65

Staying OT, Cuban education is first rate as is the health system by the standards of the region - or Ireland!:p

But whats the price been for that? Far too heavy in my view.

Mike.

flogen

My mistake on education; had actually heard that before but I was just listing off some of those regular complaints

lostexpectation

I was looking around for genuine oppostion to Castro, ppl who don't like castroism but don't want to take american government money, its very hard to find.

the reporters without frontiers head guy who is most critical of castro locking people up is working with the US gov, so even the dissidents who he locked up who arn't working for the US are tainted by it. (not that people should be locked up for thought crimes).

thats the problem is either Castro or President there is no middle ground.

can the CIA hold back every grouping if it doesn't suit them to go in when castro dies?

LostinBlanch

mike65 wrote:

Staying OT, Cuban education is first rate as is the health system by the standards of the region - or Ireland!:p

But whats the price been for that? Far too heavy in my view.

Mike.

Could you imagine our health system if it was run by the Cubans? I think Mary Harney would be glad of their assistance l

What they have done with their health system in the face of the embargo on medical supplies seems practically miraculous.

oscarBravo

bonkey wrote:

Whatever about the first two, I was under the impression that education standards in Cuba were quite good.

Her indoors was in Cuba for a week recently. Education standards are excellent, healthcare is (as oft-stated) world-class, and nobody - literally nobody - is hungry. The biggest social challenge is that it's impossible to buy or sell a house, which means many newly-married couples end up living with in-laws, which leads to a fairly high divorce rate. Seriously.

bonkey wrote:

...and its probably not really on-topic.

It almost is. The whole post-Castro debate tends to focus on what a huge improvement in quality of life Cubans will enjoy when the evil dictator is gone.

arbeitsscheuer

In the long run my money is on Felipe Perez Roque.

From what I've read, Raul has neither the ambition nor the astonishing vitality and charisma of his brother, and so his appointment to power will be temporary IMO - a sort of caretaker appointment, if you will.

Perez Roque, on the other hand, is young, smart and has served in Castro's chief of staff for a decade. He is the only member of the Cabinet to be born after la Revolucion.

I hope he becomes leader anyway... I think he'd be a fitting successor.

bonkey

oscarBravo wrote:

The whole post-Castro debate tends to focus on what a huge improvement in quality of life Cubans will enjoy when the evil dictator is gone.

From what I can see, though, most of it seems to be wishful thinking.

oscarBravo

bonkey wrote:

From what I can see, though, most of it seems to be wishful thinking.

Absolutely. It also seems to be largely fueled by the anti-Castro ex-pats in Miami, who have their own axe to grind.

Cork

As a democrat - I can see merit in Cuba having free and open elections.

Can't see much merit in dictatorships.

metrovelvet

Does anyone know anything about these rumours that he is already dead?

Diaspora

Nothing would suggest that he has in fact passed on but even if he does the transfer of power to his brother will be a worse scenario as then there will be a dictatorship based on nepotism without the talent that sustained Cuba as a decent place to live up to 1990 or so.

What should follow is not so clear as it would be undesireable to move straight into elections where outside interests could buy the election via slick marketing techniques and go back on all their promises.

A northern assembly type model run under the UN with the IMF holding the loot and OECD providing consulatancy is probably what should be implemented to progressively develop a culture of democracy and would be the ideal solution but is probably a little utopian in design.

One thing that is clear is that the situation where prostitutes working the tourist industry earn ten times that of very talented Heart Surgeons is unsustainable and I for one have no confidence in any memeber of the Castro family to correct this.

ronbyrne2005

The americans will try to get "their man" in when the regime comes to an end. The fact that castro has effectively beaten them for 40 years is a sore point in washington. When the castro regime ends i can see cuba being a massive tourist destination and many irish people buying property there! prime carribean real estate!

Hobbes

Well they had Rice on TV the other day saying they would support anyone who was try to incite democracy in the country, as well as a bill going through to fund people who want to overthrow the current regime (could find the story, but heck of time trying to find the bill).

Add to that an independant (outside Cuba group) did a survey on people in Cuba and found that the majority there prefer how it is, or rather don't want the US interfering.

Diaspora

The expression inciting democracy is possibly one of the most flawed concepts I've heard. Democracy cannot be incited but it can be planned and built; I hope that the EU led by Zapaterro of Spain take an active role in removing the current regime but ensure that what replaces it is truely democratic and that the IMF are involved to provide finance to rebuild their infrastrucure.

I have real concerns that either the current regime will remain and Cuba continue to slide further south or that some of ex-pat elements based in the US will gain control either would not be an acceptable outcome.

Cork

I think Cuba will only gain post castro.

Democracy, Freedom of Speech and Foriegan direct investment.